| Abstract: | Our ability to understand the geographical dispersion of theimpacts of climate change has not yet progressed to the pointof being able to quantify costs and benefits distributed acrossglobe along one or more climate scenarios in any meaningfulway. We respond to this chaotic state of affairs by offeringa brief introduction to the potential impacts of a changingclimate along five geographically dispersed portraits of howthe future climate might evolve and by presenting a modern approachto contemplating vulnerability to climate impacts that has beendesigned explicitly to reflect geographic diversity and uncertainty.Three case studies are offered to provide direct evidence ofthe potential value of adaptation in reducing the cost of climateimpacts, the versatility of thinking about the determinantsof adaptive capacity for specific regions or sectors, and thefeasibility of exploring both across a wide range of ‘not-implausible’climate and socio-economic scenarios. Three overarching themesemerge: adaptation matters, geographic diversity is critical,and enormous uncertainty must be recognized and accommodated. |
