Long cycle theory and the hegemonic powers' basing networks

One recent focus of research in international relations theory is that of “long cycle theory,” associated primarily with George Modelski and William Thompson, which posits serial cycles of hegemonic dominance — Venice, Portugal, the Netherlands, Great Britain, the United States — lasting approximately for one century. These hegemonic cycles are highly correlated with, or underpinned by, maritime and commercial dominance. Some aspects of long cycle theory have been contested by the rival “world systems” theory, that has fewer cycles and a disinclination to separate the military and economic dimensions of hegemony. Heretofore, naval power, as reflected in capital ship construction and orders of battle, has been used to measure maritime dominance. This research suggests that data for rival and successive global basing access networks could be used to inform and query the basis of long cycle theory; i.e., to provide a measure of “global reach”. There are additionally, interesting conceptual questions about the basis for basing access, as it has evolved historically; specifically, from a basis in conquest to one dependent upon diplomacy and various quid pro quo. The article suggests the need for more historical data collection on bases.