World Food and Agriculture Elements of the System to the Year 2000

Abstract

The predominating characteristic in world food and agriculture is a high degree of national self-sufficiency. Divergencies in national situations are, however, so great that accurate aggregate statement are difficult to make. The domestic food problems of OECD countries are and should remain relatively minor; those of the USSR and East Europe are more severe but they too should be fully manageable in the medium to longer run. China is likely to remain basically self-sufficient but could become one of the world's greatest importers. The food problem is most critical in low income countries. A continuation of the trends of the last two decades would worsen some aspect of their situation. Such an outcome is not inevitable. A just-completed 90-country study by FAO assessed that developing country food output could grow at around 3.7% over the years 1980–2000 compared with a trend of just under 3%. If this is accompanied by some redistribution of purchasing power and improvements in the international policy framework, including larger food stocks, by the year 2000 their food problems could be largely solved. The inescapable modernization of developing country agriculture will be difficult and very expensive. Developing countries must receive at least one dollar in six of their agricultural investment requirements as external assistance.