| Abstract: | The disorder in Timor-Leste in 2006, the collapse of the Alkatiri government, and the political crisis following the 2007 parliamentary elections have all fuelled speculation that the country is a potential ‘failing state’. After outlining the history of the latter concept, this paper examines the Timor-Leste case in relation to the phenomena associated with social and political instability. It has exhibited tensions between the civil regime and the military, apparently deepening ethnic/regional differences, weakness in governance institutions and a dependence upon state office as a means to wealth/power; all of these factors are associated with instability. In addition, some policy choices have fostered particular grievances. Timor-Leste's situation with reference specifically to the comparative literatures on ‘state failure’ and on ‘Africanisation’ is then reviewed. State failure literature suggests that regime type and executive recruitment and participation practices are crucial; as a new democracy hitherto dominated by a distinct political faction and facing vital electoral contests, the political system was bound to exhibit turbulence. However, Timor-Leste should be seen in a broader comparative context; accordingly though clearly at risk some caveats should be entered on the prospects for ‘failure’ of the Timor-Leste state. Timor Leste never having been the site of a fully functioning state, its politics more resemble Melanesia than Africa. |
