清代昆明地区(1721-1900年)冬季平均气温序列的重建与初步分析

本文利用清代档案中的相关资料,建立冬季降雪和干季降水的双因子回归方程,重建了1721-1855年间昆明的冬季平均气温序列,并利用其它资料补出了1856-1900年间的10年冬季平均温度序列。分析表明,18-19世纪昆明皆处于偏冷的时期,其间又有一定的波动,大致可分为4个冷期和3个偏暖的时期。且昆明气温变化存在跃升现象。而和全国其它地方比较,在大的冷暖方面基本一致,但也有很多差异。

The Preliminary Study in Reconstructing the Mean Winter Temperature in Kunming during 1721-1900 A. D.

This study reconstructed the series of mean winter temperature and set up the equation of bi-determiner about the snowing in winter and the precipitation during dry seasons with historical documents during 1721-1900, at the same time reconstructed the decade series of mean winter temperature with other materials during 1856-1900. The analysis showed that there was a cold period in Kunming with some intervals during the 18th-19th century, this time could be divided into 4 cold periods and 3 warmer periods approximately. There existed the spring changing of temperature in Kunming. It could be found that the changing in temperature in Kunming was consistent with other areas of China by compare, while there were many diversities.