Interannual fluctuations of the stratospheric temperature over the north polar region |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Marine Sciences and Convergent Engineering, Hanyang University, ERICA, South Korea;2. Geosystem Research Corporation (GeoSR), Gunpo, South Korea;3. Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea;4. Institute for Convergence Research and Education in Advanced Technology, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea;5. Division of Science Education, Institute of Fusion Science, Jeonbuk National University, Jeonju, South Korea;1. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, 200438 Shanghai, China;2. CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology, Shanghai 200438, China;3. Institute of Geosciences, Universität Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany;4. Department of Geography, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada;5. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Lanzhou 730000, China;6. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: | The monthly means for the years 1964–1991 of 30 hPa temperatures over the North Pole and averaged over the 70–90°N region are analyzed. A multiple regression model is used to find long-term monthly trends and possible linear associations between these temperatures and the QBO, ENSO, and the 11-yr solar cycle. The model's residuals are examined for detection of other periodic interannual fluctuations in Arctic temperatures.It is found that the interannual variations of temperature at 30 hPa over the Arctic are a superposition of the oscillations due to the QBO, ENSO, the 11-yr solar cycle, and approximate 6-yr periodic fluctuations of unknown origin. The QBO, ENSO, and the solar cycle effects in the Arctic temperature explain about 35% of the total variance of the temperature monthly anomalies. In winter, the QBO, ENSO, and the 11-yr solar cycle signals in the temperature data depend on the phase of the equatorial QBO. The polar vortex seems to be warmer (colder) than normal when the West (East) phase of the equatorial QBO in a period of high solar activity. The monthly temperature trends over the Arctic show seasonal variations with positive trends in February and March. The year-round trends (sum of the monthly trends) are about −0.5 K per decade. |
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