Perspectives of present and future space weather forecasts

Two main targets of space weather forecasts are to, predict solar energetic particles (SEPs) produced by flares and coronal mass ejections CMEs), and the energetic particles or hot plasma injected into the inner magnetosphere during magnetic storms and substorms. For the purpose of constructing models to predict these particle popuplations, we critically review the problems in flares and CMEs, and the problems in magnetic and substorms For flares and CMEs, we point out the importance of distinguishing the effects of flares from the effects of CMEs, because it seems that many physical processes operate commonlyto both phenomena and produce similar effects. Recent studies on SEP events have shown that advanced measurements of SEPs can distinguish between these two acceleration sources. We propose a possible relationship between flare and CMEs based on an idea of dual magnetic field structures of different characteristic scales. It is expected that further progress can be accomplished by vector magnetographs, sold X-ray telescopes, and advanced measurements of solar wind composition as well as SEP composition. Far magnetic storms and substorms, it is found that analysis by the linear filtering technique can give results which are very consistent with theoretical understanding. Therefore, it is strongly recognized that the next step should be fully theoretical studies, or simulations.