上海旅游客流的B-J方法预测研究

本文在系统分析上海市2000年1月至2004年9月旅游市场动态变化时序数据的基础上，采用博克斯一詹全斯（B—J）方法预测了2004年4月至2004年9月间上海市旅游客流的发展变化趋势。通过预测结果与现实统计数据的对比表明，采用B—J方法预测旅游客流的短期趋势是可行的，因此，可运用该方法对上海市客源市场进行科学规划，但在具体运用过程中需考虑对旅游市场的突发性冲击将可能对预测精度造成的影响。

A Study of B-J Method of Tourist Flow Prediction

This article made a systematic analysis of horizontal data of dynamic tourism market in the Jan. 2000 to Sep. 2004 period, applied the Box-Jenkins methodology to forecast the developmental trends of tourist flow in Apr. 2004 to Sep. 2004 period. The comparison of the results of the prediction and the factual statistics data shows that B-J methodology can be safely applied to forecast short-term trends of tourist flow. Therefore, we can apply this methodology to make a scientific planning of tourist market of Shanghai. But it should be pointed out that unexpected impacts of tourist market may influence the accuracy.