资源、环境约束与制造业增长模式转变

本文运用非参数的环境生产前沿方法,通过构建产出端既包括行业产出增长,又包括污染物排放的方向性环境技术效率评价模型,以规模以上制造业28个行业为研究对象,采用线性规划求解方法,研究资源环境约束下制造业的增长模式,探讨制造业增长模式转变的可行性。认为,中国制造业环境技术效率提高明显;考察期内,烟草制品业、皮革毛皮羽毛(绒)及其制品业、通信设备计算机及其他电子设备制造业三个行业环境技术均达到了效率前沿面;2003年成为制造业和轻、重工业环境技术效率发生变化的转折点。在现有技术下,转变制造业高能耗、高污染的粗放型增长模式,使制造业向"低投入-高产出-低排放"的集约型增长模式转变具有一定的可行性。

RESOURCES,ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS AND CHANGE IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR GROWTH MODEL

Currently, the efficiency evaluation of manufacturing industry has neglected the energy and environment cost. In this research, the authors calculate the environmental technology efficiency of various sub-industries in manufacturing industry from the year 1999 to 2007. A non-parametric environmental production approach is adopted in the calculation. In this model, the calculated output not only includes the industry output growth, but also considers the contaminations. Also, 28 industries in manufacturing sector are chosen as research objects and a linear programming method is adopted to calculate the industry efficiency. The manufacturing growth model with the constraints of resources and environment is studied and the feasibility of manufacturing growth mode is analyzed. The authors conclude that the manufacturing environmental technology efficiency in China shows an obvious improving trend. During the process of research, the industries including "tobacco", "leather, fur feathers (down) and its sub-products", "communication equipments and computers" and "electronic equipment manufacturing industries", reach high efficiency in environmental technology. These industries have achieved the ideal situation that the output grows, the resource consumption decreases, and the emission of pollution reduces. The environmental efficiencies of the rest industries are lower than the above industries, none of which reaches the standard. The year of 2003 is a turning point of manufacturing industry, light industry and heavy industry in environmental technology efficiency. The regression results show that with the help of the existing technology, it is feasible to make some change in the high energy consumption, high pollution and extensive mode in manufacturing industry. Therefore, a diversion from the extensive mode of "high input, low output and high emissions" to the intensive mode of "low input, high output and low emissions" can be achieved.