Modelling Resource Values and Climate Change Impacts to Set Preservation and Research Priorities

ABSTRACT

Climate change impacts will increase in their frequency and severity in the coming decades, resulting in compromised integrity or destruction of thousands of heritage resources. Efforts are needed to identify, record, and study resources that will be affected. To set research and preservation priorities, the vulnerability of resources to climate change impacts and their importance to scientific research, preservation, and other resource values needs to be understood. We advocate a modelling approach which predicts the location, timing, and severity of climate change impacts; identifies resources at risk, their resource values, and opportunity costs; and prioritises research and preservation options based on these assessments. The need for this approach is illustrated with examples from two coastal areas subject to different impacts and hosting different types of heritage resources: the Atlantic coast of Georgia in the United States and the Wismar Bight along the Baltic Sea in northern Germany.     

A Bayesian approach to rapid seismic vulnerability assessment at urban scale

The seismic vulnerability of city centers is commonly assessed by extending the study methods applied to single buildings to urban aggregations. This approach is not always applicable at territorial scale, as it is uneconomical in terms of time and costs. An innovative method provides reasonable large-scale a priori estimation of parameters not directly evaluable from the exterior of buildings by elaborating values which can be measured from the outside. Those parameters are treated as continuous variables, by assigning them a suitable probability density function. The Bayesian approach is adopted, which allows the update of initial hypotheses by using new data gathered during on-site surveys. In this regard, a rapid survey form for the on-site data collection is proposed. An example of its application to a façade of a building structural unit in Santo Stefano di Sessanio in L’Aquila province (Italy) is proposed, showing promising preliminary results for buildings belonging to Italian historical centers.     

Working holiday makers in Australia: food security,climate change,and the backpacker tax

This commentary considers an often overlooked contribution to food security in Australia—the labour of working holiday makers. Their ability to act as a flexible and mobile temporary workforce is essential to the maintenance of the Australian agricultural industry. Previously, no tax was payable on income below $18,200, but a 2015 proposal to increase their tax rate sparked a vigorous political debate and so revealed their importance to the agricultural industry. A decline in backpacker numbers would cause agriculture to shrink to cope with smaller workforces. But the effects of climate change are expected to further shrink agricultural areas as extreme events and hotter temperatures impact crops, livestock, and the productivity of agricultural workers. Issues that appear manageable when viewed in isolation, such as increases in the tax rate on working holiday makers, become more problematic when viewed in conjunction with other impacts affecting agriculture. Thus, the ‘backpacker tax’ risks making food security harder to maintain at a time when Australia's agricultural system is already vulnerable to climate change.     

Identification Technique for Soil-Structure Analysis of the Ghirlandina Tower

Historical towers, in particular medieval towers, are an important part of cultural heritage, and their preservation mandates monitoring and detailed analyses of vulnerability under seismic actions as well as of their long-term performance. Certain aspects of structural nature are linked to the masonry behavior as a unilateral material, and other are aspects related to the interaction with soft soil conditions. This study aims to contribute to the aspects of preservation by exploring the role of the soil-structure interaction in predicting the behavior of the structures, with specific reference to the well-documented case history of the medieval Ghirlandina Tower (Modena, Italy). A significant contribution comes from an experimental identification analysis, performed in the presence of ambient vibration. A novel finding is that the soil structure interaction cannot be neglected, in contrast to most published identification analyses that usually assume the structure to have rigid constraint at base.     

Seismic vulnerability assessment and fragility analysis of stone masonry monastic temples in Sikkim Himalayas

Buddhist monasteries in Sikkim Himalayas constitute important religious and architectural heritage. These random rubble (RR) stone masonry structures located in high seismically active regions of the Himalayas have suffered varied degrees of damages in the past earthquakes. The study presents seismic vulnerability assessment of four archetypal monastic temples using finite element (FE) analyses. Linear and nonlinear analyses of these structures were conducted in Abaqus FE environment. These analyses identified the damage prone areas of the structures and provided load-deformation behavior under lateral loads. Fragility analyses indicate a high probability of collapse for the specified design level earthquake of the region. The study shows that performance of the structure can be enhanced by improving the strength and stiffness of the stone masonry walls.     

Queering disasters: on the need to account for LGBTI experiences in natural disaster contexts

This article seeks a queering of research and policy in relation to natural disasters, their human impacts, management and response. The human impacts of natural disasters vary across different social groups. We contend that one group largely absent from scholarly and policy agendas is sexual and gender minorities, or lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender/transsexual and intersex (LGBTI) populations. To demonstrate that these minorities have particular experiences that need to be addressed, we critically review five case studies that comprise the limited scholarly and policy research on LGBTI populations in disasters to date. Building on this, we offer some specific ways forward for queer disaster research that accounts for the vulnerabilities, needs and resilient capacities of LGBTI populations. In doing so, we recognise and urge researchers, policy-makers and aid agencies to acknowledge that LGBTI populations are not homogeneous and have different needs wrought by intersections of socio-economic resources, gender, race/ethnicity, age and regional or national location.     

The Dynamic Behavior of the Basilica of San Francesco in Assisi Using Simplified Analytical Models

The Basilica of San Francesco in Assisi endured stronger earthquakes for centuries before 1997 earthquake, which generated the collapse of the two vaults. Experts blame as possible reasons of collapse the damage cumulated from previous earthquakes and/or the retrofitting made to the structure over its lifetime. This article presents the history of the retrofit interventions of the Basilica through the centuries, focusing mainly on the roof, which has been subjected to three major restorations through its life. It is shown using simple analytical models that the cumulative effects of the changes made to the roof of the Basilica affected the structure’s dynamic behavior in a negative manner, increasing the seismic loads on the existing structural members. In particular, the numerical results show that the 1958 roof intervention has stiffened the structure, redistributing the seismic loads on the façade and the transept. This overload might explain the collapse of the two Gothic vaults during 1997 earthquake.     

Vulnerability Index: A New Approach for Preventive Conservation of Monuments

A new approach is developed for vulnerability analysis of monuments based on a matrix model and the relationships with static and structural factors, climatic conditions, air quality, urban planning and social agents for preventive conservation of cultural heritage in urban centers.

The objective is to provide tools for decision-makers in the current recession to allow them to prioritize strategies for cultural heritage preservation in a town, where territorial policies are applied and regions where restoration budget is distributed. This new tool allows to classify monuments in order to prioritize restoration and is useful in deeper analysis associated to risks assessment.

The degradation of building materials and structures is mainly due to deterioration caused by structural instability, weathering, pollution, and anthropogenic damage. The vulnerability approach of each monument (vulnerability indexes) was calculated, based on a Leopold matrix that depends on intrinsic variables and the life of the monuments. For the very first time, the influence of different deterioration agents has been balanced with a Delphi forecast based on architects’ opinions.

The result is a new pre-Artificial Intelligence tool that enables users to reproduce human reasoning to study relations between vulnerability factors, risk factors, and the historical parameters of the monuments.     

Vulnerability and nationalism: the support for the war against Iraq in five established states

ABSTRACT. This essay attempts to shed light on why aggressive ideas gain support within established western states. To do that it attempts to answer the question why the armed conflict against Iraq received such varied support during the first four months of 2003 within the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, France and Spain. A comparative study indicates that the justifications for the armed conflict must be endorsed in the national identities of the particular states. If not, either the justifications or national identities have to be modified. The dominant elite emerge as essential to this process, as does the public experience of vulnerability. It appears that the war against Iraq received such varied support because the initial definitions of national identities endorsed the justifications for the war to different degrees, the dominant elites promoted different opinions and the people experienced different degrees of vulnerability.