The National Flood Insurance Program: A Case Study in Policy Failure,Reform, and Retrenchment

In this paper, I present an intensive case study of the development of the National Flood Insurance Program to advance two key arguments. First, the conventional model of adoption of general interest reform neglects an important aspect of political context: whether the relevant policy domain is one with or without “publics.” I argue that in domains without publics the politics of reform will differ substantially from the accepted model. Second, I argue that the type of learning necessary to address a given policy failure matters in reform politics. Instrumental learning is necessary but may not be sufficient for successful general interest reforms. When the social construction of a policy failure is such that many people misconceive of the fundamental purpose of a policy, social learning must take place before instrumental learning can be effective.     

Counting Carbon: Calculative Activism and Slippery Infrastructure

The environmental movement in the global North is in a state of impasse. It appears that despite the renewed international focus on climate change, and the actions of innumerable social movements, a “solution” to the problem appears as one, without a viable solution. It is the contention of this paper that climate change has no clearly viable solution as it is a seemingly impossible problem. This paper investigates how the problem of climate change is constructed as a global object of political action and how it functions to render politics into a matter of calculative action, one that seeks—but fails—to take hold of a slippery carbon infrastructure. It concludes by suggesting one possible solution to this dilemma is to turn away from the global scalar logic of climate change and towards a situated focus on questions of infrastructure, or what Dimitris Papadopoulos calls “thick justice”.     

Fluid flow in shear zones: insights from the geometry and evolution of ore bodies at Renco gold mine,Zimbabwe

The geometry of mineral deposits can give insights into fluid flow in shear zones. Lode gold ore bodies at Renco Mine, in the Limpopo Belt, Zimbabwe, occur as siliceous breccias and mylonites within amphibolite facies shear zones that dip either gently or steeply. The two sets of ore bodies formed synchronously from hydrothermal fluids. The ore bodies are oblate, but have well‐defined long axes. Larger ore bodies are more oblate. High‐grade gold ore shoots have long axes that plunge down dip; this direction is perpendicular to the long axes of the low‐grade ore bodies. The centres of the high‐grade ore bodies align within the low‐grade ore bodies along strike in both gently and steeply dipping groups. The range of sizes and shapes of the ore bodies are interpreted as a growth sequence. Geometrical models are proposed for the gently and steeply dipping ore bodies, in which individual ore bodies grow with long axes plunging down dip, and merge to form larger, more oblate ore bodies. The models show that when three or more ore bodies coalesce, the long axis of the merged ore body is perpendicular to the component ore bodies, and that ore bodies in the deposit may have a range of shapes due to both growth of individual ore bodies, and their coalescence. The long axes of the high‐grade ore bodies are parallel to the shear directions of both the gently and steeply dipping dip slip shear zones, which were the directions of greatest permeability and fluid flow. The larger, lower grade bodies, which may have formed by coalescence, are elongate perpendicular to these directions.     

Legitimacy and Public Policy: Seeing Beyond Effectiveness,Efficiency, and Performance

Studies of failure typically assess public policies through the lenses of effectiveness, efficiency, and performance. Here I wish to propose a further dimension to the evaluation and assessment of policy failure—legitimacy. The substantive elements of public policies and the procedural steps taken by authoritative decision makers during the policy cycle affect the perception of policy legitimacy held by both stakeholders and the public. In substantive terms, policy content should align with the dominant attitudes of the affected policy community and, ideally, the broader public. Procedurally, factors such as policy incubation, the emotive appeals deployed to gain support for an initiative, and the processes of stakeholder engagement shape the legitimacy of public policies and the governments who promote them. This argument is based on a comparison of education reform in two Canadian provinces during the 1990s. Governments in Alberta and Ontario pursued common agendas of education reform, but while Alberta achieved success, the Ontario government experienced a series of setbacks and lost the support of education stakeholders and the public. The root of Ontario's failures lies in the realm of legitimacy. These findings highlight the fact that the strategies used for enacting policy change may fail to bring about the necessary consensus among societal actors to sustain a new policy direction and calls attention to our need to better understand how governments can achieve meaningful public participation while still achieving legislative success in an efficient fashion.     

Simple Seismic Assessment of Traditional Unreinforced Masonry Buildings

A framework for quick seismic assessment and retrofit of traditional unreinforced masonry (URM) structures is presented. The proposed methods build on simple principles of structural dynamics and are used as an alternative to detailed time-history analysis, in recognition of the prevailing need for simple and practical methods, compatible with the low-budget and the limited level of knowledge regarding materials, internal force paths, connectivity and condition of older URM structures. An objective is to identify areas in the building that are particularly susceptible to damage and for guiding the types of the required global interventions to improve seismic response. Demand and supply are expressed in terms of relative drift ratios that quantify the intensity of out-of-plane differential translation and in-plane shear distortion of masonry walls. A characteristic traditional building type of timber-laced masonry is used as a model structure for illustration of concepts. The morphology and geometry of the building correspond to a statistical sample of the actual traditional unreinforced masonry buildings (TURM) found in historical centers of many towns in the greater region of Northern Greece. The methodology is particularly useful for setting retrofit priorities and management of the collective seismic risk of historical entities.     

The role of the stress regime on microseismicity induced by overpressure and cooling in geologic carbon storage

Fluid injection in deep geological formations usually induces microseismicity. In particular, industrial‐scale injection of CO₂ may induce a large number of microseismic events. Since CO₂ is likely to reach the storage formation at a lower temperature than that corresponding to the geothermal gradient, both overpressure and cooling decrease the effective stresses and may induce microseismicity. Here, we investigate the effect of the stress regime on the effective stress evolution and fracture stability when injecting cold CO₂ through a horizontal well in a deep saline formation. Simulation results show that when only overpressure occurs, the vertical total stress remains practically constant, but the horizontal total stresses increase proportionally to overpressure. These hydro‐mechanical stress changes result in a slight improvement in fracture stability in normal faulting stress regimes because the decrease in deviatoric stress offsets the decrease in effective stresses produced by overpressure. However, fracture stability significantly decreases in reverse faulting stress regimes because the size of the Mohr circle increases in addition to being displaced towards failure conditions. Fracture stability also decreases in strike slip stress regimes because the Mohr circle maintains its size and is shifted towards the yield surface a magnitude equal to overpressure minus the increase in the horizontal total stresses. Additionally, cooling induces a thermal stress reduction in all directions, but larger in the out‐of‐plane direction. This stress anisotropy causes, apart from a displacement of the Mohr circle towards the yield surface, an increase in the size of the Mohr circle. These two effects decrease fracture stability, resulting in the strike slip being the least stable stress regime when cooling occurs, followed by the reverse faulting and the normal faulting stress regimes. Thus, characterizing the stress state is crucial to determine the maximum sustainable injection pressure and maximum temperature drop to safely inject CO₂.     

Geographies of state failure and sophistication in maritime piracy hijackings

Many analysts are concerned about territories subject to state failure becoming safe havens for terrorists. In this article, I apply this logic to maritime piracy syndicates and their ship hijacking operations, and argue that a focus on the geographies of state failure can help us explain why pirates' behavior varies between failed and weak states. Analysis of a dataset of hijacking incidents suggests that state failure is associated with less sophisticated attacks, while state weakness encourages more sophisticated attacks. Through case studies of the process by which pirates carry out their attacks in East Africa and Southeast Asia, I argue that it is the differences in political and economic landscapes that influence how pirates embed their operations across territory, and thus how they carry out their operations. Notably, because they do not have to worry about enforcement, pirates in failed states can engage in time-intensive kidnappings for ransom, while only weak states provide the markets and transportation infrastructure necessary for operations where ships and cargo are seized and sold for profit. These findings suggest that weak states might actually be more problematic for international security in some respects than failed states.     

When Policy Goes Wrong: The Problem of Transmitted Risk

Why do policies fail? There are many answers to this question, and many ways of answering it. In this paper, we use the tools of policy framing and systems thinking to investigate two recent Australian examples of public policy failure, each involving a different policy milieu and time-span. We show that, in both these cases, unintended consequences arose because governments lost control of the implementation process while remaining politically accountable for the outcomes. We develop the concept of transmitted risk to show how this occurred. We argue that governments expose themselves to this kind of risk when they make policy decisions involving a combination of excessive incentives and poorly controlled third parties.     

ENERGY-BASED TECHNIQUE FOR SEISMIC PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT OF INTERIOR BEAM-COLUMN JOINTS

For investigating the seismic behaviour of monolithic beam-column joints, a new technique of assessment of joint performance, termed the Shear Deformation Energy Index, is presented in this paper. Previous research efforts in this field were evaluated and the relative merits and drawbacks of each approach were highlighted. Primary variables influencing the seismic behaviour of joints were studied in the experimental phase of the current study. This included pseudo-static testing of nine interior beam-column sub-assemblages with different joint configurations. The parametric investigation of primary variables was complemented by studying the behaviour of specimens of eight different experimental programmes. For easy application of the technique in design practice, the Index is graphically represented versus its main variables in a design chart, referred to as the Performance Chart.     

Obituaries

Abstract

A rich variety of processes have modified the glacial landscape of the Scottish Highlands since the last glaciers disappeared 11,500 years ago. Many of these processes can be described as paraglacial (glacially-conditioned): retreat of glacier ice has resulted in exposure of metastable sediment sources (rock slopes, drift-mantled slopes and valley-floor glacigenic deposits) that have been reworked over a range of timescales. Much of the reworked sediment has been deposited in paraglacial sediment stores (talus accumulations, debris cones, alluvial fans, valley fills, river terraces and deltas). The trajectory of paraglacial sediment transfer can be approximated by an exhaustion model. A corollary of this model is that all sediment stores eventually undergo a change from net accumulation to net erosion, reflecting the non-renewable nature of sediment sources. This concept helps to explain why most talus accumulations, debris cones and alluvial fans in the Highlands are now relict, and why many floodplains appear to have experienced an initial period of aggradation followed by later river incision and terrace development. Since deglaciation, rock slopes have experienced paraglacial stress release due to differential deglacial unloading. Many rock slopes have remained stable or experienced gradual adjustment through intermittent rockfall. At over 600 sites, however, large-scale rock-slope failure has occurred, either in the form of catastrophic failure with complete or arrested debris runout, or as major slope deformations. Modification of drift-mantled slopes has been dominated by rainstorm-generated debris flows activity, which have stripped sediment from slopes and redeposited it in debris cones. Radiocarbon dating of buried organic horizons shows that debris flows have occurred intermittently throughout the Holocene. Snow avalanches have played only a localized role in paraglacial sediment transfer. The Holocene alluvial history of the Highlands is poorly understood. Some alluvial fans formed during a few exceptional flood events, and there is evidence that postglacial floodplain aggradation peaked in the late Holocene and was succeeded by floodplain incision and terrace development, possibly reflecting upstream reduction in paraglacial sediment supply. Other processes have operated independently of glacial conditioning. The effects of wind action are dominant in the coastal zone, forming dunefields through aeolian reworking of beach sand, and on plateaux in the form of deflation surfaces and sand sheets. Extensive erosion of plateau-top sands and aeolisols occurred in the period AD 1550–1700, a period of exceptional storminess. Small-scale periglacial processes have also been active on high ground throughout the Holocene, including granular weathering of exposed rock surfaces, the development of small-scale frost-sorted patterned ground on unvegetated terrain, and slow downslope movement of solifluction sheets, solifluction lobes and ploughing boulders.