Determining the Success of Economic Sanctions

This article applies the social-network conception of national power, derived from the social-network conception of the international system structure, to economic sanctions, one of the most widely studied empirical phenomena in international relations. The empirical analyses of economic sanctions presented here find that sanctions cases with disproportional structural-network power between sender and target were far less likely to be successful and those with the target state possessing high structural-network power were far more likely to be successful. The evidence from nonparametric model discrimination statistics and information criteria measures shows that the sanctions models with new social-network power measures have greater explanatory power than or statistically outperform those with old attributional power measures, such as the Correlates of War index and GNP.

一些政治学者认为强调农业和农民的“乡村情结”越来越失去其政治和社会意义,但并没有多少实证研究支持这一说法。为此,作者就人们对农业和农民的态度做了探讨性调查。调查结果显示,人们的态度符合“乡村情结式微”论,但会因年龄、位置、出生国、投票意向而有差异。不过,仍存在一种将乡村情结归诸农民的倾向,有对农民生产方式的强烈支持、以及对农业于国家未来重要性的坚信。令人惊奇的是,与过去三十年的市场自由主义相左,对政府之扶助农业的支持可谓强烈。     

‘Fare di ogni famiglia italiana un fortilizio’: The League of Nations' economic sanctions and everyday life in Venice 1

Abstract

The imposition of punitive sanctions against Italy by the League of Nations in November 1935 in response to the invasion of Ethiopia, a fellow league member, provided the fascist regime with an opportunity to mobilize the civilian population into ‘resistance’ against the ‘economic siege’ and to promote its ideals of nationalism, imperialist expansion and autarchy. This article examines the way in which the fascist authorities in Venice, aided by a supportive local press, sought to use the sanctions and ‘sanctions resistance’ to engage Venetians – especially women – in the fascist project and explores the effect of the anti-sanctions resistance measures on Venetians' daily lives. Placing importance both upon the regime's intentions as well as Venetians' reception of the anti-sanctions rhetoric, and drawing upon Michel de Certeau's observations on The Practice of Everyday Life, the article argues that Venetians' reception of such propaganda was characterized above all by confusion and by a multiplicity of personal choices and reactions, spanning a range of possible responses from unequivocal support through passive acceptance or indifference to outright rejection or subversion of the sanctions resistance measures that sought to elicit consent for the fascist project.     

The Ins and Outs of Iranian Industrial Resilience under Sanctions

This paper draws on export data from four of Iran’s key trade partners—the European Union, China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Turkey—to examine the robust and positive correlations between the export of parts and machinery to Iran and Iran’s industrial output, as measured by production index data published by the Central Bank of Iran for industrial enterprises with over 100 employees. The period of analysis is 2000 to 2017. It may seem intuitive that the output of Iranian manufacturers depends on the ability of companies to source intermediate goods such as parts and machinery. However, the imposition of sanctions on Iran is shown to have temporarily decoupled the relationship between European industrial exports to Iran and the Iranian industrial production index—the index remained stable even as European exports fell. An analysis of trade data for the other three trade partners included in this study quantitatively substantiates reports noting that in order to sustain the industrial production index, Iran engaged in processes that can be collectively described as “import reflection.” This entails substituting European intermediate inputs with Chinese inputs while also circumventing sanctions pressures on trade by sourcing European inputs via re‐export from the UAE and Turkey. These processes were fundamental to Iran’s economic resilience in the face of multilateral sanctions and have played a central role in Iran’s defense of its industrialized economy and particularly its non‐oil exports as the administration of US President Donald Trump pursues a new unilateral campaign of “maximum pressure” sanctions.     

China's Economic and Political Penetration in Africa

A senior American specialist on China and noted geographer presents a study of that country's economic and political penetration into the African continent. The author identifies three key elements of China's objectives and plan, namely (1) support for Chinese policies in international affairs, particularly with regard to Taiwan, (2) search for oil and other mineral resources, and (3) creation of a new market for Chinese goods and services in tandem with additional jobs in China. The paper includes four case studies highlighting economic activities stimulated by Chinese loans and investments in the Republic of South Africa, Egypt, Sudan, and Angola. Considerable attention is devoted to oil imports, exports of cheap consumer goods, and construction and repair of infrastructure by Chinese technicians and laborers, as well as the competition between Chinese imports and host-country manufacturing and the PRC's diplomatic support of rogue African nations. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F020, F210, F350, F540. 11 figures, 1 table, 47 references.     

Voorwoord/Foreword

Abstract

When the Rhodesian Front Party under Prime Minister lan Smith declared unilateral independence (UDI) from Britain on November 11 1965, the international community responded by imposing economic sanctions against the rebel regime. At the time, the British prime minister, Harold Wilson was convinced that given the smallness and the fragility of the Rhodesian economy, international economic sanctions would quickly bring Rhodesia to its knees. Sanctions did not succeed, in the short run, in bringing the Rhodesian economy to its knees, however, partly because South Africa and Portugal refused to participate in sanctions and helped Rhodesia circumvent sanctions. This study examines South Africa's economic support for Rhodesia in the early years of Rhodesia's unilateral declaration of independence. It argues that South Africans defied international opinion over the Rhodesian question partly because of the widespread sympathy for their kith and kin across the border that were fighting the same battle against black nationalism as the South African ruling party, but also because of South Africa's need to protect and promote national interests through a demonstration of the inefficacy of international sanctions and boycotts at a time when it was, itself, a possible target for international sanctions because of its apartheid system.     

The enforcement problem in Resolution 2094 and the United Nations Security Council sanctions regime: sanctioning North Korea

This article deconstructs United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2094 through the preambulatory statements, objectives, obligations, and implementation and enforcement provisions of UNSC Resolution 2094. The article proceeds in three parts. First, it reviews the academic literature on UNSC sanctions and their application in the North Korean case. Second, it deconstructs UNSC Resolution 2094 according to the common structural components of international legal instruments to assess the level of congruence between the objectives of UNSC Resolution 2094, its enforcement mechanisms and outcomes. Third, it explores the weaknesses of UNSC Resolution 2094, focusing on the gap between the objectives and enforcement mechanisms found in the resolution. The inability of the UNSC sanctions regime to prevent North Korea reaching the cusp of becoming a nuclear weapons power is evidence of the international community's weak leverage over Pyongyang, a situation arising from the vulnerability of South Korea to a North Korean attack and the cross-cutting strategic priorities of China; the absence of economic linkages between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the primary sanctions-sender state in the USA; and North Korea's commitment to a nuclear weapons capability as the foundation of its medium-term economic development strategy, its institutional governance structure and associated ideological commitments.     

Regulatory regionalism and anti-money-laundering governance in Asia

With the intensification of the Financial Action Task Force's (FATF's) worldwide campaign to promote anti-money-laundering regulation since the late 1990s, all Asian states except North Korea have signed up to its rules and have established a regional institution—the Asia/Pacific Group on Money Laundering—to promote and oversee the implementation of FATF's 40 Recommendations in the region. This article analyses the FATF regime, making two key claims. First, anti-money-laundering governance in Asia reflects a broader shift to regulatory regionalism, particularly in economic matters, in that its implementation and functioning depend upon the rescaling of ostensibly domestic agencies to function within a regional governance regime. Second, although this form of regulatory regionalism is established in order to bypass the perceived constraints of national sovereignty and political will, it nevertheless inevitably becomes entangled within the socio-political conflicts that shape the exercise of state power more broadly. Consequently, understanding the outcomes of regulatory regionalism involves identifying how these conflicts shape how far and in what manner global regulations are adopted and implemented within specific territories. This argument is demonstrated by a case study of Myanmar.     

经济外交与冷战史研究新视野

经济外交是认识和理解冷战历史的重要研究角度。经济外交与对外经济战略、对外经济关系、私人企业对外交往活动有着较为明显的联系与区别。对外援助是经济外交最重要的表现形式。美国相关解密外交档案的启示作用,一是帮助澄清了经济外交是美国实现冷战目标的最重要工具之一;二是冷战时期美国对第三世界国家实施的经济援助计划,是其遏制苏联大战略的有机组成部分。     

Sanctions and tourism: effects,complexities and research

Abstract

Despite the growing use of sanctions as a post-Cold War foreign policy instrument, there is limited research on sanctions in a tourism context despite their substantial impact on destinations and tourist flows. Although there is significant research on sanctions in political science, international relations, economics, and public policy, very few studies explicitly examine the effect of sanctions on tourism. This study therefore examines the intricate geopolitical relationship between sanctions and tourism via a scoping review of relevant literature. Each of the four main types of sanctions that were identified: financial, sectoral, diplomatic and individual, have different implications for tourism at various scales. The findings show that tourism is profoundly affected by sanctions impacting tourism and hospitality businesses and destination image, severely restricting international travel, and disrupting financial investment and supply chains. More comprehensive sanctions may lead to substantial economic and personal hardship in destinations as well as indirect effects including decline in the value of currency and inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, despite the development of smart and targeted sanctions they rarely affect the coercive capacity of the targeted government and induce political behavioural change. Resistive economies can develop in response to sanctions in which domestic tourism assumes greater significance as a result of reductions in international mobility. Some destinations facing sanctions also focus on specific international markets from non-sanctioning countries as well as a country’s diaspora. Overall, the study of sanctions deepens knowledge of the interrelationships between geopolitics, foreign policy and tourism and its ramifications for destinations. Significant gaps in knowledge for future research include the role of domestic politics in influencing sanctions policy, the selection of tourism as a specific target for sanctions, and the development of destination adaptation strategies to sanctions.