Shock and friction as explanations for disaster at the Battle of Amiens, 8 August 1918

The assault at Amiens was ‘the black day of the German Army’. British accounts treat the Germans as passive, of no more importance than the terrain, and victory as inevitable. Using German sources, and drawing on statistical ‘historical analysis’ of behaviour in battle, the article argues the frontline defenders panicked when thick fog left them defenceless against the British tanks. By contrast, when the fog lifted, the defence recovered. Although senior German commanders on the spot reacted well, Ludendorff fell into a state of shock, such that he convinced the Kaiser the war must be ended.     

Rainwater Tank Households: Water Savers or Water Users?

This paper provides the first published post‐installation analysis of retrofitted rainwater tanks and their effects on mains water consumption. The study aimed to determine the average mains water reductions achieved in households with recently installed rainwater tanks and compare this figure with wider community consumption. The social and cultural impacts of rainwater tank ownership were also explored to understand how rainwater is used and perceived. The results show that during the period of analysis, the drought years of 2005–2007, 7125 or 8% of Illawarra households installed a tank. Comparison of mains water consumption for two years before and after installation shows that rainwater tank households reduced their mains water consumption about the same amount (10.26%) as the wider community (10.8%). The social and cultural components reveal three main groups of households. The largest group, water users, had a desire for water autonomy and independence to continue previously enjoyed water practices that had been restricted. Among a light green group, tanks were part of a package of overtly pro‐environmental behaviours that did not necessarily change consumption patterns. A frugal group, many of whom had been raised in rural areas, were the main water savers. Perception of tank water quality was shown to be an influential determinant of how rainwater was used, particularly for connections internal to the house. This study shows that rainwater tanks have the potential to achieve significant water savings, but if water‐intensive behaviours are not modified, and rainwater tanks are not plumbed indoors, the potential of this alternative water source will not be met. Currently, rainwater tanks facilitate water users as much as water savers.     

FRAGILITY OF STANDARD INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURES BY A RESPONSE SURFACE BASED METHOD

National and international regulatory standards require industrial risk assessment, taking into account natural hazards including earthquakes, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). Seismic fragility analysis of industrial components may be carried out similarly as what has been done for buildings, even though some peculiar aspects require the development of specific tools. In the present paper a contribution to the definition of a rational procedure for seismic vulnerability assessment of standardised industrial constructions in a probabilistic framework is given. The method covers a range of components of the same structural type. Seismic reliability formulation for structures is used. Both seismic capacity and demand are considered probabilistic with the latter assessed by dynamic analyses. The application example refers to shell elephant foot buckling of unanchored sliding tanks. A regression-based method is applied to relate fragility curves to parameters varying in the domain of variables for structural design.     

Ideas-Centred Explanations of the Rise of Neoliberalism: A Critique

This article critically examines the assumption that the spread of neoliberal policy programs of privatisation, deregulation and marketisation is explained principally by policymakers coming under the influence of fundamentalist neoliberal ideas and the think tanks through which they were proselytised. The article outlines the conditions that must be satisfied for this thesis of ideational causation to be considered plausible. By examining the relationship between neoliberal think tanks and the Howard Coalition government in Australia, the article offers indicative evidence against this dominant conceptual framework for understanding the rise of neoliberalism. It concludes that this narrative offers a poor guide to understanding actually existing neoliberalism.

本文批评了一种观点,该观点认为新自由主义的私有化、解除管制、市场化之类政策的推广缘于政策制定者受了原教旨新自由主义思想及思想库的影响。作者指出了这一思想因果关系若要成立须满足的条件。通过分析新自由主义思想库与霍华德政府的关系,本文反驳了这种有关新自由主义的流行观点,认为这种叙述无益于指导对真实存在的新自由主义的理解（Brenner and Theofore 2002）。     

Archaeological indicators for sea level change and coastal neotectonic deformation: the submerged Roman fish tanks of the gulf of Matala, Crete, Greece

Due to the direct relationship between their function and ancient sea levels, Roman fish tanks and fish traps are excellent indicators for sea level changes through time. For this study, eleven submerged systems of fish tanks were investigated along the rocky southern coast of the gulf of Matala, Crete. Seven of them are still in a good state of preservation and thus underwent detailed survey and documentation. The measurements of their recent submersion, the determination of the way they operated, as well as their correlation with coastal landforms indicative of an older sea level, permit the identification of a mean Roman sea level at the SW coast of central Crete 1.25 m below the present one. According to historical evidence, the submersion of the SW coasts of the central part of Crete must have been occurred between 1415 and 1865 during a paroxysmal tectonic event and is probably related with the strong earthquake of 1604.     

Fish tanks of eastern Crete (Greece) as indicators of the Roman sea level

The ancient fish tanks and fish traps of Crete are relics of the Roman domination of the island; they were usually constructed near the major urban centers of that period. The direct relationship of their various functional characteristics with past sea levels and the relatively accurate determination of their construction dates establish them as sensitive indicators of sea level change through space and time.     

The Natural Environment of the Shipwreck Vrouw Maria (1771) in the Northern Baltic Sea: an assessment of her state of preservation

Vrouw Maria, a merchant vessel sailing from Amsterdam to St Petersburg in 1771, ran aground in the northern Baltic Sea. Her cargo included Dutch works of art bought by Catherine the Great. The wreck was located in 1999, 41 m deep. This study aims to understand environmental factors and physical stresses affecting the wreck, using three different approaches—studying the wreck as an artificial reef; describing the conditions inside the wreck; and measuring the physical stresses caused by currents. The methods applied were biological, archaeological, hydrological, geological and physical. The data will be a basis for further monitoring. © 2010 The Authors     

The Myth of “Broken Britain”: Welfare Reform and the Production of Ignorance

Abstract: This article takes on the challenge of what Robert Proctor calls “agnotology” (the study of ignorance) to analyse the current assault on the British welfare state by think tanks, policy elites and conservative politicians. The assault is traced back to the emergence of the Centre for Social Justice think tank, founded in 2004 by the current Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan‐Smith. I argue that a familiar litany of social pathologies (family breakdown, worklessness, antisocial behaviour, personal responsibility, out‐of‐wedlock childbirth, dependency) is repeatedly invoked by the architects of welfare reform to manufacture ignorance of alternative ways of addressing poverty and social injustice. Structural causes of poverty have been strategically ignored in favour of a single behavioural explanation—“Broken Britain”—where “family breakdown” has become the central problem to be tackled by the philanthropic fantasy of a “Big Society”. My agnotological approach critically explores the troubling relationship between (mis)information and state power.     

Tropical Cyclones in the Great Barrier Reef,Australia, 1910–1999: a First Step Towards Characterising the Disturbance Regime

The proximity of a reef to a tropical cyclone path is the simplest means of estimating the potential for disturbance (that is, physical damage from waves) at that reef. Calculated for cyclones that tracked across a sample of reefs spanning much of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) from 1910 to 1999, such proximities provide a preliminary history of cyclone disturbance in that region for which spatial and temporal trends can be examined. As the long‐term dynamics of cyclone disturbance affect the structure and function of coral reef communities, the disturbance regime can be used to consider whether the current state of coral communities (as measured in 1999) represents that which was present over the entire time series, and whether the frequency of cyclone disturbance across the GBR is high (limited recovery time between events) or intermediate (variable recovery time between events) in nature. This analysis reveals that for more than half of the GBR, the latest major disturbance occurred less recently than normal for the time series (current communities had more time for recovery than usual) and that these disturbances are generally intermediate in frequency. However, because many factors other than distance affect the potential for disturbance, these results represent a first step towards characterising the nature of cyclone disturbance across the GBR.     

Demonstration Survey of Prehistoric Reef‐Net Sites with Sidescan Sonar,near Becher Bay,British Columbia,Canada

Sidescan sonar was deployed in challenging shallow‐water conditions to demonstrate the potential for recording anchor‐stones left on the sea‐bed from prehistoric fishing operations. In less than three hours the survey successfully mapped a reef‐net site originally recorded in 1985 by diving archaeologists over many hours. In addition, 8 km of coastline were surveyed, resulting in the discovery and recording of one new underwater reef‐net site. Our understanding of evolving subsistence practices of the Straits Salish, for whom reef‐net fishing was a critical activity, may be enhanced by this survey method which provides cost‐effective access to data not otherwise being recorded. © 2011 The Authors