How Turkey’s democratic backsliding compromises the international dimension of democratization

Previous research suggests that linkage to the West can have a strong democratizing influence on transitioning states. Yet, Western linkage and leverage lost much of their democratizing force by the early twenty‐first century. Turkey's political trajectory over the last decade furnishes a representative case study of the waning power of the West as an anchor for democratization in high‐linkage countries. Despite Turkey's robust ties to the West, competitive authoritarianism has been further entrenched and signs of a drift toward full‐fledged authoritarianism emerged since the failed coup of July 2016. We argue that in a context where the European Union and the United States’ willingness to support democracy declined considerably the AKP’s distancing from the West in foreign policy and balancing the Western powers with its new economic and political relations with autocratic regimes have served to stifle the democratizing pressure of Western linkage by lowering the cost of autocratic behavior for the AKP government and facilitating Turkey's illiberal turn.     

中国城市群空间结构演化的影响因素分析——基于铁路客运的功能联系视角

以中国13个城市群为研究对象,采用铁路客运班次构造多中心指数来表征基于功能联系的城市群空间结构,在分析城市群空间结构演变基础上重点分析其影响因素。研究发现,基于功能联系视角的城市群空间结构总体呈单中心化趋势,但地区差异化明显,珠三角、山东半岛和闽东南城市群已表现出多中心化特征;城市群空间结构的多中心程度随经济发展水平的提高表现为先单中心后多中心的演变过程;城市群规模的增大和城市间联系加强促进了城市群向多中心方向演化;而面积小、三产比重高的城市群更有利于形成单中心的结构;政府干预作用对城市群空间结构影响并不显著。鉴于不同城市群空间结构演化趋势不同,未来政策取向应该遵从各个城市群自身规律。     

The Role of Bubo virginianus magellanicus as Rodent Bone Accumulator in Archaeological Sites: A Case Study for the Atuel River (Mendoza,Argentina)

Micromammalian bone assemblages from modern pellets of the strigiform Bubo virginianus magellanicus, from the upper Atuel River (southern Mendoza, Argentina), were taphonomically analysed. The results allow us to place B. v. magellanicus in the category of intermediate modification (Category 2). This sample has also been compared with results from other members of this genus, in order to classify B. v. magellanicus as a taphonomic agent. The participation of the Bubo species in archaeological accumulations has been documented, but in Argentina, the role of B. v. magellanicus has been reported up to the present. It is partly because of the sequence of one archaeological site in the south of Mendoza Province called Laguna El Sosneado‐3 (LS‐3). However, considering the absence of a current taphonomic model of this owl, this participation was mentioned as a hypothesis. In the current investigation, archaeological and modern samples have been compared. The results indicate that the skeletal element assemblages recovered from LS‐3 were accumulated by strigiform birds. Taphonomical evidence of light modifications on units I and IV indicates that Tyto alba (Category 1) was probably the main species involved in these units, whereas the taphonomical evidence on skeletal element assemblages recovered from units II and III suggests the action of a strigiform with a major category of modification such as B. v. magellanicus. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Playing with matches: An assessment of accuracy in linked historical data

This article evaluates linkage quality achieved by various record linkage techniques used in historical demography. The author creates benchmark, or truth, data by linking the 2005 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Social Security Administration's numeric identification system by social security number. By comparing simulated linkages to the benchmark data, she examines the value added (in terms of number and quality of links) from incorporating text-string comparators, adjusting age, and using a probabilistic matching algorithm. She finds that text-string comparators and probabilistic approaches are useful for increasing the linkage rate, but use of text-string comparators may decrease accuracy in some cases. Overall, probabilistic matching offers the best balance between linkage rates and accuracy.     

《四库全书》载《图绘宝鉴》底本考原

四库全书辑入的《图绘宝鉴》是一部重要的古代画史作,其内容与本书其他重要版本多有不同,使研究颇感困惑。通过对四库本与正德本、津逮秘书本及借绿草堂本等版本的比较,发现四库本的底本孔府本并非正德本,而应是嘉靖本或其增补本毛大伦本：并同时推论出嘉靖本的底本是正德本的一个残本。     

两唐书《天文志》日食记录初探

唐代的日食记录,通常包括朔日干支、日食宿度、食分及起讫时刻等信息,总体以《新唐书.天文志》的记载较为准确和完整,但脱漏失载的情况仍然存在。《志》文中有关日食的模糊预言,暴露了帝王政治的统治危机,较为含蓄地反映了当时的政治事件和社会问题。但不可否认,《旧唐书.天文志》仍有《新志》无法替代的史料价值。     

Testing Methods of Record Linkage on Swedish Censuses

Abstract.

Research benefits a great deal when different kinds of registers can be combined. Record linkage is an important tool for connecting sources to create longitudinal databases of individual data. In this article, researchers test and evaluate different methods of record linkage used when linking two censuses. By comparing the results of the census linkage with other continuous Swedish parish registers, they find that applying constructed name variables and household links considerably increases the success rate without the risk of introducing bias. Missing links are mainly related to name problems, and appear most frequently among children and when the family structure has changed between the censuses. Faulty links are very few and must be regarded as only a marginal problem for analysis. The study underlines the importance of adapting the linkage process to the special characteristics of the sources.     

BOOK REVIEWS

The author considers three methods of counting maternal deaths, and hence of calculating maternal mortality levels, in the nineteenth century. The first method counts maternal deaths classified in contemporary statistical publications. The second method examines nineteenth-century death registers for records of maternal deaths. The third method identifies maternal deaths through family reconstitution. The author finds that each method, in isolation, leads to underestimating maternal mortality levels because maternal deaths were often misregistered or misclassified under nonmaternal causes and were often not associated with live, registered births, as required for family reconstitution.     

Status and Role of Formation Theory in Contemporary Archaeological Practice

Since Binford appropriated the term “middle-range theory,” it has signified the process of reasoning from the extant material record to the cultural past. Merton's sociological concept of middle-range theory is relevant to archaeology, but does not mean what Binford denoted by it. More accurately, Binford's domain should be called “formation theory.” By whatever name used, archaeologists differ greatly in our views of its role and status. Somehow, formation theory has come to be viewed as method but not theory, and as intrinsic to materialism, but irrelevant if not antithetical to other ontologies. Yet it is as critical to the contextual understanding of the past sought by many archaeologists today—a role that, among others, belies formation theory's marginal status in academic practice.     

建立农村居民健康档案刍议

为农村居民建立健康档案工作在我国处于起步阶段,根据农村居民健康档案的特点,规范健康档案的管理和有效利用,实现对农民健康的动态和连续管理,发挥健康档案对农村居民健康管理的作用,意义重大。