Overpressure in the Malay Basin and prediction methods

Predrill overpressure prediction is important for well planning and migration modeling for prospect evaluation. The Eaton (Journal of Petroleum Technology, 24 , 1972, 929) and Bowers (SPE Drilling & Completion, 10 , 1995, 89) methods are used worldwide for postdrill overpressure prediction using sonic log and predrill overpressure prediction using seismic interval velocity. In this research, these two methods were used for overpressure prediction using 3D anisotropic prestack depth‐migrated seismic interval velocity in a field of the Malay Basin. In the shallow overpressured zone, where the mechanism of overpressure is undercompaction, the onset of overpressure was predicted reasonably well using the Eaton and Bowers methods with their standard parameters (i.e., Eaton exponent 3 and Bowers loading curve) for seismic velocity. However, in the deep overpressured zone, where fluid expansion is the cause of overpressure generation, these methods underpredicted the high overpressure. In the deep overpressured zone, the overpressures were better predicted by applying a correction to the Eaton method. On the other hand, the Bowers unloading parameters for the fluid expansion mechanisms did not show any significant effect on overpressure prediction. Hence, in the study area, the Bowers method is not effective for 3D overpressure prediction using seismic velocity, whereas the Eaton method is more robust and can be used for 3D overpressure prediction from seismic velocity.     

Übersicht der Tätigkeit internationaler Geographenkongresse auf dem Gebiete der Geschichte der Kartographie

Abstract

This paper surveys the career of Benedetto Bordon as a miniaturist, designer of woodcuts, and cartographer. Although from Padua, Bordon worked primarily in Venice where he illuminated religious and classical texts and official ducal documents destined for Venetian noblemen. The writer argues that Bordon designed woodcut illustrations for books printed by Aldus Manutius and others, in addition to the woodcut maps in his 1528 book on islands in the MediteiTanean, Atlantic, and Caribbean. Bordon's lost world map of 1508 is discussed in relation to the map‐making activities of Francesco Rosselli, the Florentine miniaturist and engraver who was in Venice in 1504 and 1508, and in relation to a circle of Venetian scholars and patricians interested in Ptolemy's Cosmographia and in the mapping of the New World.     

新世纪前期旅游业发展预测

旅游业是永恒的朝阳产业。根据世界旅游业和我国旅游业的发展态势,作从八个方面预测我国旅游业的未来。     

Describing Archaeological Iguana Laurenti, 1768 (Squamata: Iguanidae) Populations: Size and Skeletal Maturity

The goal of this study was to provide tools to estimate size and maturity of the archaeological Iguana specimens on the basis of their skeletal remains. To achieve this, a reference of 40 Iguana osteological specimens from different collections was used to derive size prediction equations relying on bone measurements. The sequence of fusions of skeletal elements was also observed and found to be strictly identical in all observed specimens. These observations enable the size and skeletal maturity of an archaeological specimen to be determined on the basis of an isolated bone. Such data could be valuable in zooarchaeological studies, as is demonstrated using the case of a pre‐Columbian archaeological site in the Lesser Antilles. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scapular development from the neonatal period to skeletal maturity: A preliminary study

An understanding of the basic growth rates and patterns of development for each element of the human skeleton is important for a thorough understanding and interpretation of data in all areas of skeletal research. Yet surprisingly little is known about the detailed ontogenetic development of many bones, including the scapula. With the intention of describing the changes that accompany postnatal ontogeny in the scapula and algorithms to predict sub‐adult age at death, this communication examines the development of the scapula through nine measurements (3 from the glenoidal area, 4 from the body and 2 related to the spinous process) by polynomial regression. Data were collected from 31 of the individuals that comprise the Scheuer Collection, which is housed at the University of Dundee (Scotland). Four of the derived mathematical curves (scapular length, infra‐ and suprascapular height and spine length) displayed linear growth, whilst three (maximum length of the glenoid mass, acromial width and scapular width) were best expressed by a second‐degree polynomial and two (maximum and middle diameter of the glenoidal surface) by a third‐degree polynomial. All single measurements proved useful in the prediction of age at death, although derived indices proved to be of limited value. In particular, scapular width, suprascapular height and acromial width showed reliable levels of age prediction until late adolescent years. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Governing the future: science,policy and public participation in the construction of the long term in the Netherlands and Sweden

This paper is a historical study of two institutions devoted to the problem of the future – the Dutch WRR (the Scientific Council for Government) and the Swedish Secretariat for Futures Studies – both created in 1972. While there is a growing interest in the social sciences for prediction, future imaginaries and the governance of risk, few studies have examined historically the integration of the category of the ‘future’ or the ‘long term’ in political systems in the postwar years, a period in which this category took on specific meaning and importance. We suggest that governing the long-term posed fundamental problems to particular societal models of expertise, decision-making and public participation. We argue that the scientific and political claim to govern the future was fundamentally contested, and that social struggle around the role and content of predictive expertise determined how the long term was incorporated into different systems of knowledge production and policy-making.     

Prediction Models for Age‐at‐Death Estimates for Calves,Using Unfused Epiphyses and Diaphyses

For cattle (Bos taurus), age estimations using dental criteria before the eruption of the first molar (3–8 months) have large error margins. This hampers archaeozoological investigation into perinatal mortality or the putative slaughtering of very young calves for milk exploitation. Previous ageing methods for subjuveniles have focused on the length of unfused bones, but it is rarely possible to use them because they are restricted to foetuses and because of the fragmentation of bones. This paper presents new age prediction models based on length, breadth and depth of post cranial bones produced from a dataset of modern calves (n = 27). This reference collection was compiled from material of known age at death, sex and breed from collections in Britain, France, Germany and Switzerland. Linear regression models were constructed using the modern data for age prediction, and these models were then successfully tested and assessed using a Middle Neolithic assemblage of complete calves' skeletons from Bourguignon‐Lès‐Morey, France. From the assessment, the astragalus and metapodials were determined to be the most reliable bones, and the femur was the worst. Measurements of the epiphyseal and distal elements and depth measurements were the most reliable. For ages before 12 months, these models can provide ±1 month age estimates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Tide of History

Two stories are told simultaneously: one that may have been, and one that yet might be. The story of the voyage that might have been is based on archaeological evidence provided by the earliest shipwreck discovered in the New World. These two stories are set in different eras to demonstrate certain constants in the human drive to explore the unknown, in the methods used, and in the consequences encountered.     

EUROCODE 8 DESIGN RESPONSE SPECTRA EVALUATION USING THE K-NET JAPANESE DATABASE

The Eurocode 8 (EC8) currently proposes two standard shapes for the design response spectra. Type 1 spectra are enriched in long period and are suggested for high seismicity regions. Conversely, Type 2 spectra are proposed for low to moderate seismicity areas (like France), and exhibit both a larger amplification at short period, and a much smaller long period contents, with respect to Type 1 spectra. These propositions, however, were constrained using few events mostly recorded on analogical instruments. In the present study, we use the Japanese high quality digital K-net array in order to evaluate the proposed ECS response spectra. Furthermore, all K-net stations have geotechnical characterisation. We first constructed a database of shallow events, depth less than 25 km, to avoid subduction related records. The database spans six years of seismicity from 1996 until 2003. Thus, 591 events were selected with moment magnitude between 4 and 7.3, recorded at 691 stations, giving a total of 6812 two horizontal components accelerograms. Using these records, we computed spectral ground-motion prediction equations and we used them to review the shape of the proposed EC8 spectra. In particular, we studied the plateau-PGA ratio level, the period interval where this plateau is constant, and site amplification effects. The results show surprisingly that the Type 2 rock better envelope the Japanese data. Another interesting observation is that the K-net data corresponding to all soil classes are rich in short periods around 0.1 s. This characteristic has not been observed in other worldwide databases. Normalised empirical predictions show a widening of the plateau as the soil conditions degrade. This suggests that the Type 2 EC8 spectra do not cover enough the long periods for EC3-soil classes C, D and E. Finally, the computed ground-motion prediction equations show that the peak ground acceleration (PGA) is nearly invariant to the soil conditions. Soil effects are mainly seen in the shape and plateau level.