Polarization and the growth of low‐skill service jobs in Spanish local labor markets

This paper analyzes the long‐term transformations of the occupational structure in 50 provinces of Spain with a view to ascertain the existence and assess the extent of employment polarization. The peculiar characteristics of this country, namely rigid labor markets and the relatively recent transition to democracy, make for an interesting addition to existing studies on this topic. In line with previous literature on other countries, we find a strong association between the decline of “routine” mid‐skill jobs and the expansion of low‐skill service employment as well as differential labor market outcomes by levels of formal education. Results are robust to various controls and instrumental variables that account for long‐term industry specialization. We also find a positive local multiplier effect of high‐skilled workers on the demand for nontradable service jobs.     

Faults and fault properties in hydrocarbon flow models

The petroleum industry uses subsurface flow models for two principal purposes: to model the flow of hydrocarbons into traps over geological time, and to simulate the production of hydrocarbon from reservoirs over periods of decades or less. Faults, which are three-dimensional volumes, are approximated in both modelling applications as planar membranes onto which predictions of the most important fault-related flow properties are mapped. Faults in porous clastic reservoirs are generally baffles or barriers to flow and the relevant flow properties are therefore very different to those which are important in conductive fracture flow systems. A critical review and discussion is offered on the work-flows used to predict and model capillary threshold pressure for exploration fault seal analysis and fault transmissibility multipliers for production simulation, and of the data from which the predictions derive. New flow simulation models confirm that failure of intra-reservoir sealing faults can occur during a reservoir depressurization via a water-drive mechanism, but contrary to anecdotal reports, published examples of production-induced seal failure are elusive. Ignoring the three-dimensional structure of fault zones can sometimes have a significant influence on production-related flow, and a series of models illustrating flow associated with relay zones are discussed.     

旅游活动对江苏居民收入的贡献——基于2002年江苏旅游活动细化社会核算矩阵的研究

本研究构建了由38个内生账户、4个外生账户组成的2002年江苏旅游细化SAM。在计算SAM账户居民收入乘数(Mahi)的基础上,本论文分析了旅游业对江苏居民收入的贡献。数据显示,2002年江苏旅游业对居民收入的总贡献是608.48亿元,其中,入境旅游业和国内旅游业对居民收入的贡献分别是62.78亿元和545.69亿元。2002年江苏旅游业对城镇居民收入的总贡献是355.30亿元,对农村居民收入贡献是253.17亿元。从产业上看,餐饮业和住宿业给居民带来的收入最大。     

Local employment multipliers for large publicly subsidized firms: Evidence from a synthetic control approach

This paper provides estimates of local employment multipliers from large, publicly subsidized firms. We use a synthetic control weighted difference-in-difference estimation procedure that matches treated areas with comparison areas to generate local employment multiplier estimates. We show that local employment multiplier estimates have a high degree of uncertainty, with a wide range of point estimates (both positive and negative) and varying degrees of statistical significance. There is a concentration of positive employment multipliers from manufacturing facilities, but little correlation between estimated multipliers and subsidy value. We demonstrate that our approach produces drastically different results than a traditional difference-in-difference approach.     

Robustness of econometrically estimated local multipliers across different methods and data

Local traded‐goods employment multiplier estimates play an important role in the decision making of local policy makers. Therefore, it is important to understand the robustness of the approaches and quality of the data used in empirical studies. The local employment multiplier estimates by Moretti (AER; 2010) are a good benchmark for departure. In this paper, I find the traded‐goods multiplier falls within the range of 1.17 to 1.93, which is substantially lower than the estimate of 2.6 obtained by Moretti. I use multiple estimators in combination with two data sets, a range of controls and different ways of classifying traded industries to show the robustness and variability of local employment multiplier estimates. Finally, I demonstrate the sensitivity of Moretti's results. The most notable result being that Moretti's multiplier for separate skilled or unskilled workers in the nontraded sector is overestimated by a factor of 2.     

Observation and assessment of local economic development with regard to the application of the local multiplier

This contribution deals with the observation and evaluation of the issues of local economic development with a focus on the relatively new method of the local multiplier LM3. The main objective of this article is to evaluate the application possibilities of selected tools for the analysis of local economic development, in order to verify the effectiveness of the methodology of the local multiplier LM3 and to discuss the possibilities of its practical use. This LM3 method is perceived to be one of the convenient methods on how to capture certain components of local economic development. This indicator of the power of local economies is verified within field research in two case studies conducted in the ?umava region in Southwest Bohemia. The added value of this contribution is both methodological and practical. Currently, there exist only very few studies using the LM3 method in the Czech Republic and they do not offer satisfying evaluation of possible broader use of this method in the area of local development in the specific Czech regions. Having summarized two new case studies, this article contributes to the methodological discussion of the LM method and includes concrete practical recommendations for future research and also practical use.