DAUGHTER DISCRIMINATION AND FUTURE SEX RATIO AT BIRTH IN INDIA

This paper examines recent trends in sex ratio at birth in all the major states of India, based on three rounds of the National Family Health Survey. It finds evidence of an increase in the ratio, particularly at the second-order birth among women having a first daughter in many states in the northwestern region of the country. Also, there are signs of daughter aversion emerging in Odisha, an eastern state. Based on parity progression ratios and the trend in sex selection, an attempt is made to estimate the peak of sex ratio at birth in India. With moderate intensification in sex selection in the northwestern region, sex ratio at birth is expected to reach a peak of 117–119 males per 100 females around the period 2021–2026. If, in addition, sex selection spreads further in the southeastern region, the sex ratio at birth in India could even increase to a level of 124.     

UN Population Division's Methodology in Preparing Base Population for Projections: Case study for India

Preparation of the base population plays a substantial role in the accuracy of projections. This paper reviews analytical strategies involved in the preparation of the UN World Population Prospects to reconcile existing discrepancies between data sources and derive robust estimates of population counts, distribution, and demographic changes. The case study of India is used to illustrate the challenges and benefits of using a cohort-component population projection approach in reconstructing its population between 1950 and 2010, including the preparation of bias-free population counts and distributions by age and sex; estimation of consistent fertility and mortality trends; and integration of all demographic components for obtaining a reliable base population for projections.     

西方人口史研究新进展述评

20世纪中叶以来 ,西方在人口史研究方面取得了巨大进展 ,还采用了新的研究方法。这些成果不仅提供了对近代人口普查前的各国人口数量和结构等基本状况的描述 ,而且增进了历史学对一些重大问题的理论探讨 ,拓宽了历史学的视野和领域。     

Bishop Leslie's maps of Scotland, 1578

Meret Petrzilka, Die Karten von Laurent Fries von 1530 und 1531 und ihre Vorlage, die ‘Carta Marina’ aus dent Jahre 1516 von Martin Waldseemüller. Dissertation der philosophische Fakultāt II der Universität Zurich, Zurich 1968/69. pp. 170, illustrations and maps.

Werner Becker, Vom alten Bild der Welt ‐ alte Landkarten und Stadtansichten. Leipzig, Verlag Koehler &; Amelang, 1969. pp. 268.

Schöne alte Karten. Mappe mit 24 Kartenfaksimilen. Leipzig, V.E.B. Hermann Haack, 1970.

Fritz Bonisch, Genauigkeitsuntersuchungen am Oederschen Kartenwerk von Kursachsen. In: Abhandlungen der Sächsischen Akademie der Wissenschaften zu Leipzig, Philosophisch‐Historische Klasse, vol. 61, no. 3. Berlin, Akademie Verlag, 1970.

Old maps in Japan. Compiled by M. Nanba, N. Muroga and K. Unno. English translation by Hirochimi Takeda and Peter Anton. Osaka, Sogensha, 1971, pp. 160, with 93 maps in full colour + 4 foldings, 37 x 26 cm. U.S. $ 55.     

基于消费者行为分析的区域旅游市场规划方法研究

本文尝试从旅游者消费需求分析角度入手,探讨区域旅游市场规划的方法论创新。本论文引入了动机--行为投射模型,通过对建立在专题旅游市场调查基础上的消费行为数据库的深度剖析,论文揭示了旅游目标市场群体常见的三类消费心理趋向模式(补偿型需求、均衡型需求、超越型需求)以及相对应的旅游产品选择偏好规律。在此基础上提出了区域旅游目标市场群体的心理定位策略,以及相对应的从结构性旅游功能规划到旅游产品、旅游服务供给链连续递进的规划流程体系。即"行为分析(Behavior)-定位(Postioning)-旅游供给(Supple)",简称旅游市场规划的BPS方案。     

HOW WELL DID PAST UN POPULATION PROJECTIONS ANTICIPATE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN SIX SOUTH-EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES?

This paper analyses the accuracy of the United Nations’ population projections since the late 1950s for six South-east Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. The study uses available projected and estimated age-structured data as well as published assumptions on fertility and mortality trends. A decomposition of the total projection errors into base errors (wrong estimates of demographic conditions at the beginning of projection interval) and change errors (wrong assumptions about the trends) shows that the base errors have generally been decreasing over time presumably as a consequence of improving demographic monitoring systems. The change errors, however, do not seem to decline over time. This seems to be due to a number of country-specific cultural and political factors whose effect was not anticipated as well as to a lack of good theories with predictive power. These findings suggest the need to give more explicit attention to the treatment of uncertainty in future population projections.     

Cordiform Maps since the Sixteenth Century: The Legacy of Nineteenth‐Century Classificatory Systems

The heart‐shaped, or cordiform, maps of the sixteenth century, including those by Oronce Fine, Peter Apian and Gerard Mercator, have long intrigued historians. Most writers have considered the heart shape a product only of mathematics, but some have recently offered other interpretations for the use of the heart. A classificatory system devised by d'Avezac in 1863, however, has impeded our understanding of the cordiform map, particularly in the matter of what is considered to be such a map. The nature of his classification and its reception by other writers since the late nineteenth century are examined in order to elucidate new directions for the study of the use of the heart shape in sixteenth‐century cartography.     

Walking the creek: reconnecting place through light projection

In this paper, we explore how a light projection sought to convey a range of qualities: conviviality, a sense of place, playfulness, defamiliarisation, and the affective and sensory capacities that were experienced through walking in the distinctive, liminal realm of Bendigo Creek in Victoria, Australia. The projection aspired to solicit a sensory and affective empathy that chimed with the experiences of an earlier event in which dozens of pedestrians were filmed walking in the creek. The projection contributed to a local campaign to reappraise the much‐maligned creek as a local public amenity. We discuss the productive potential of solitary and collective walking and, subsequently, the attributes of the projection in its static and mobile manifestation. In so doing, we suggest that publicly engaged, inclusive, creative practice can offer potent place‐making possibilities.