The efficacy of violence mitigation: A second look using time-series analysis

Among peace researchers and practitioners, it is generally accepted that efforts to prevent violence can be instrumental in its mitigation. So, it was distressing to read the research findings of Meier, Bond, and Bond (2007) that mitigation was positively related to organized raids in the Horn of Africa where there is pastoralist–pastoralist and pastoralist–agriculturalist violence. This article seeks to build on their research. It uses a ‘de-trending’ approach for time-series analysis that is commonly used in economics and financial studies. It reports an opposite statistically significant finding. When the data used by Meier et al. are de-trended, violence associated with organized raids is negatively correlated with mitigation. This negative correlation is similar when data on mitigation and organized raids are de-trended with time as a predictor, on the one hand, and with seasonality over time as a predictor, on the other. Implications regarding the temporal dimension of peace research and practice are presented.     

What do we need to bring about a financial crisis? A long-term look at the development of banking systems,money supply and crises 1850–2010

Financial crises are not a new phenomenon. We had them in the 18th century; there were several well-known ones in the 19th century, not to mention the crisis which started the Great Depression of the 1930s. The recurrence of financial crises in the last decades has revoked a wave of research on the topic among economic historians and economists. Still, it has been difficult for us to really understand how these crises emerge, why they have been so severe recently and why they have occurred so often in the last decades. This paper tries to explain the phenomenon by asking, how is, and how was the volume of money stock determined, and why does scarcity of money, and thus rising interest rate, not check excess borrowing and creation of speculative bubbles - and then emerging crises.     

The Challenge to ‘Informal’ Empire: Argentina,Chile and British Policy-Makers in the Immediate Aftermath of the First World War

From the late nineteenth century, both Argentina and Chile were integral parts of Britain’s ‘informal’ empire in Latin America. It has been suggested by historians that this ‘informal empire’ came to an end around the mid-twentieth century. By analysing contemporary sources from within the British government and the findings of later economic historians, it is the purpose of this article to contest this viewpoint. It will instead argue that the end of ‘informal’ empire in these countries was a direct consequence of the First World War, and that the decline in British influence in the region was registered by British policy-makers much earlier than has previously been argued.     

A rentier class? Milanese nobility and the economy in post-unification Italy

ABSTRACT

The Lombard nobility’s loss of political power after the Napoleonic Wars has led economic historians to overlook the persisting role of traditional elites in social and economic life. The aim of the paper is to reassess the contribution of the Milanese aristocracy to Italian economic development, providing new insights into the business behaviour of the nobility in northern Italian areas. The article presents some new findings on noblemen’s investments and enterprises related to agriculture, manufacturing, trade and banking. The research focuses on the decades following Italian political unification, a period in which noblemen increased their interest in the financial sector and joint-stock companies (transport, banking, new sectors and industries) as a result of the transformations induced by the Industrial Revolution and the agrarian crisis of the 1870s and 1880s. Both quantitative and qualitative data will be used to assess not only the number of individuals involved and the capital they invested in new ventures, but also their role in orienting, stimulating, managing or supporting entrepreneurial activities and their openness to collaboration with the members of the middle class. The analysis combines the deeds produced by four notaries, chosen on the basis of their contiguity to the Milanese aristocracy, the foundation’s deeds of the main companies established in the city, conserved in the House of Trade, and the information provided by other local and national institutions. The cross-referencing of this data suggests that the Milanese nobility maintained a prominent economic role well beyond Italian political unification, contributing to the modernization of the national economy despite the weaknesses and contradictions that marked this process.     

Russian Accession to the WTO: An Assessment

A senior World Bank economist presents a study focusing on issues controlling Russia's accession to the WTO in 2007. The paper discusses the principal reform commitments that Russia has made in an effort to become a member of the organization and addresses the question of whether the country faces excessive demands due to political considerations. While exploring such issues as potential relations with foreign exporters and investors, the author summarizes the relevant parts of his recent joint study of Russian import tariffs that casts a new light on a complex aspect of international trade. Among other problems relating to Russia's entry, he discusses in some detail branch banking and the tradedistorting subsidies in agriculture. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F13, F40, O19. 3 tables, 26 references.     

The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on the Mechanism of Economic Growth in Russia

A noted specialist on the Russian economy presents an assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis on the mechanism of the country's economic growth. Focusing on the demand side of the economic ledger, the author explores the question of whether Russia will be able to re-attain the high economic growth rates of the period from 2000 to 2007 after recovering from the crisis. The paper analyzes the sharp drop in production in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, attributing most of the damage to liquidity problems and declines in the price of oil. Empirical evidence is based primarily on data collected by the author from the Central Bank of Russia and the country's federal bureau of statistics (Rosstat). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E010, E200, E660, F210, G010. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.     

中美网络银行发展环境比较研究

中国和美国在网络银行发展过程中,存在很多的差异,这些差异主要表现在经济环境、银行的竞争环境、网络银行系统和网络银行潜在用户这四个主要方面。通过对这四个方面的中美比较研究,我们得到中国网络银行的发展差距还是很大的结论。针对我国网络银行发展中存在的不足,本文提出了几点解决办法。