REAL-TIME RISK ANALYSIS FOR HYBRID EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in reducing vulnerability and/or exposition of buildings and lifelines. In fact, recently seismologists developed efficient methods for rapid estimation of event features by means of limited information of the P-waves. Then, when an event is occurring, probabilistic distributions of magnitude and source-to-site distance are available and the prediction of the ground motion at the site, conditioned to the seismic network measures, may be performed in analogy with the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Consequently the structural performance may be obtained by the Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA), and used for real-time risk management purposes. However, such prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which have to be taken into proper account to limit false and missed alarms. In the present study, real-time risk analysis for early warning purposes is discussed. The magnitude estimation is performed via the Bayesian approach, while the earthquake localization is based on the Voronoi cells. To test the procedure it was applied, by simulation, to the EEWS under development in the Campanian region (southern Italy). The results lead to the conclusion that the PSHA, conditioned to the EEWS, correctly predicts the hazard at the site and that the false/missed alarm probabilities may be controlled by set up of an appropriate decisional rule and alarm threshold.     

"跑警报":西南联合大学战时生活研究之一

抗日战争期间,日军曾数百次对昆明狂轰乱炸,造成了重大的人员和财产损失,给当地民众的战时生活秩序产生了严重的影响.在对昆明的大轰炸中,当时中国的最高学府--西南联合大学也屡次遭袭,造成多名教职工伤亡,大量校舍和图书、仪器损毁.然而,敌人的轰炸并没有从精神上吓倒联大师生,大家积极采取措施防范空袭,在"跑警报"的过程中,人们的心态逐渐乐观起来.     

“跑警报”：西南联合大学战时生活研究之一

抗日战争期间,日军曾数百次对昆明狂轰乱炸,造成了重大的人员和财产损失,给当地民众的战时生活秩序产生了严重的影响。在对昆明的大轰炸中,当时中国的最高学府——西南联合大学也屡次遭袭,造成多名教职工伤亡,大量校舍和图书、仪器损毁。然而,敌人的轰炸并没有从精神上吓倒联大师生,大家积极采取措施防范空袭,在"跑警报"的过程中,人们的心态逐渐乐观起来。     

Circulation of Coronavirus Images: Helping Social Distancing?

As soon as the SARS-Cov2 disease was recognized by experts to potentially cause a serious pandemic, a three dimensional diagrammatic image of the virus, colored in strong red, conquered public media globally. This study confronts this iconic virus image with a historic image analysis of 33,000 biomedical articles on coronaviruses published between 1968–2020 and interviews with some of their authors. Only a small fraction of scientific virus publications entail images of the complete virus. Red as an alarm color is not used at all by scientists who don't aim for a non-scientific public. Circulation in this case concerns the movement of iconic images from a scientific context into a general public. On the basis of hps-studies on scientific diagrams and especially on color use in scientific diagrams to convey specific messages in public, the paper discusses the role of the claim of public corona-virus diagram as “scientific.” It points at relevant differences between most frequent scientific corona-virus images and the diagrammatic image used in public. Both author- and readerships (in science and public) follow contrasting aims and values. Thus, the images meet non-expert readers for whom the images entail very different – and potentially unintended – meanings then to virus experts.