Metrical discrimination between mandibular first and second molars in domestic cattle

The difficulty of distinguishing between loose first and second mandibular molars of domestic cattle (BOS taurus) from archaeological sites is well known. This paper proposes cervical length as a discriminatory measurement. The possibility that cervical measurements of first and second mandibular molars may be sexually dimorphic is also explored.     

The Archaeology of El Niño Events and Other “Natural” Disasters

Archaeological research on disasters has increased substantially since Sheets's 1980 review of the topic, and with heightened media coverage and funding for the study of such events, archaeological interest will continue to grow. This paper examines how prehistorians have incorporated disasters into their research since 1980, using the literature on El Niño as an illustrative case, and assesses this work in relation to geographical approaches to disaster as well as concepts that have been developed within the new ecologies.     

Demography and ethnic continuity in the Tlailotlacan enclave of Teotihuacan: the evidence from stable oxygen isotopes

Mechanisms for the maintenance of Zapotec ethnicity in Tlailotlacan, an enclave of Teotihuacan, Mexico, are reconstructed using oxygen-isotope analyses of bone and enamel phosphate. The data indicate continual interaction among the enclave inhabitants, their Oaxacan homeland, and other diaspora colonies, with no dominant post-marital residence pattern. There is no apparent association between social status and place of origin, and individual agency is indicated by variable acceptance of Teotihuacan traditions. Striking patterns of movement include the sojourning of children in other regions and the relocation of breastfeeding women. These segments of the population would have played major roles in the social and political articulation of diaspora colonies. Foreign signatures in primary burials indicate that some immigrants died shortly after their arrival in Tlailotlacan. Data from secondary burials indicate the transportation of dead relatives or ancestors to Teotihuacan for burial. We conclude that the behaviour of immigrants in ancient and modern cities is analogous in many ways.     

Pressurised pastoralism in South Gobi, Mongolia: what is the role of drought?

The desert-steppe region of southern Mongolia is susceptible to drought and extreme winter weather ( dzud ) that in combination form Mongolia's worst natural hazard. Low precipitation and high climatic variability in this dryland environment impact the landscape and affect pastoralism, the dominant rural lifestyle. Using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), this paper identifies drought occurrence in South Gobi Province, Mongolia. It then examines the relationship of drought with climate factors, interaction with vegetation (derived from Normalised Difference Vegetation Index - NDVI - data), and local human and livestock populations, and the dzuds of 1999–2001. Results show that drought is recurrent in the region, reaching extreme intensity most recently in 2005–2006. In contrast with the prevailing concept of drought impacting dzuds , the study did not find a connection between drought and dzud in South Gobi Province. Though repeated events, these natural hazards occur independently in the region. Climatic variables show increasing temperatures (>1°C), fluctuating precipitation patterns and a decline in vegetation cover. The principal long-term correlation of drought is with human population rather than natural factors, dzud or livestock numbers.     

REAL-TIME RISK ANALYSIS FOR HYBRID EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in reducing vulnerability and/or exposition of buildings and lifelines. In fact, recently seismologists developed efficient methods for rapid estimation of event features by means of limited information of the P-waves. Then, when an event is occurring, probabilistic distributions of magnitude and source-to-site distance are available and the prediction of the ground motion at the site, conditioned to the seismic network measures, may be performed in analogy with the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Consequently the structural performance may be obtained by the Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA), and used for real-time risk management purposes. However, such prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which have to be taken into proper account to limit false and missed alarms. In the present study, real-time risk analysis for early warning purposes is discussed. The magnitude estimation is performed via the Bayesian approach, while the earthquake localization is based on the Voronoi cells. To test the procedure it was applied, by simulation, to the EEWS under development in the Campanian region (southern Italy). The results lead to the conclusion that the PSHA, conditioned to the EEWS, correctly predicts the hazard at the site and that the false/missed alarm probabilities may be controlled by set up of an appropriate decisional rule and alarm threshold.     

Stable isotope insights (δ18O, δ13C) into cattle and sheep husbandry at Bercy (Paris,France, 4th millennium BC): birth seasonality and winter leaf foddering

Abstract

Bercy is a prehistoric village sited by the Seine river (Paris, France), whose main period of occupation was dated to the very beginning of the 4th millennium BC. The animal subsistence economy relied heavily on cattle husbandry, complemented by other species including sheep. Cattle and sheep isotopic history (δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O) was investigated at the seasonal scale, through sequential sampling in tooth enamel, providing new insights into seasonality of birth and diet. Sheep were lambing in mid-spring, only slightly later than expected from what is observed nowadays in temperate Europe at similar latitude. Cattle were born over a period spanning approximately six months, which was an unexpected result compared with a two to three months calving period in free-ranging cattle populations. The extension of the calving period might have been related to seasonal food supplementation. Some cattle and some sheep fed on a ¹³C-depleted resource in winter, potentially leafy fodder. A direct consequence of an extended calving period would be the availability of cow milk, which would have covered the whole year at Bercy. This is important information in a context where the exploitation of cattle milk by the human community was highly suspected from the demographic management of the herd.     

Forest as hazard,forest as victim: Community perspectives and disaster mitigation in the aftermath of Kelowna's 2003 wildfires

Situated within the political ecology of hazard, this article is an extended case study of the devastating 2003 wildfires in and around Kelowna, British Columbia (also known as the Okanagan Mountain Park Fire). This article reveals how compliance (or lack thereof) with fire mitigation strategies recommended by provincial, regional, and municipal agencies is complicated by differing social constructions of what constitutes ecologically sustainable forest management and community safety. Three perspectives emerge regarding the urban forests: “nature as hazard”—a volatile force to be controlled; “nature as instrumentally valuable”—a contribution to the character of one's surroundings and subsequent sense of place; and “nature as intrinsically valuable”—a distinct entity to be preserved and protected for its own sake. The article also examines how experiences of disaster influence community perceptions and result in a greater willingness to engage in fire mitigation strategies due to perceptions of heightened vulnerability. Forestry and fire mitigation agencies need to determine multiple courses of action among the varied and valid range of residents’ nature perspectives. The role of human agency in disaster mitigation must be examined, particularly as the risk of fire at the wildland‐urban interface continues to be exacerbated by encroaching human settlements and climate change.     

Changes in the size and shape of fallow deer—evidence for the movement and management of a species

The European fallow deer (Dama dama dama) is native to the eastern Mediterranean and whilst it is clear that its dispersion from this region was the result of human transportation, the timing and circumstances of its post‐glacial diffusion are still uncertain. Archaeological fallow deer remains offer perhaps the best opportunity to understand the deep history of the species, with measurements of ancient bones providing important information about an individual's sex and size. Unfortunately, the fragmentary nature of archaeological remains means that metrical samples are usually too small to draw any meaningful conclusions. Biometrical scaling techniques can increase the size of the sample available for comparison and in this paper log ratios are used in combination with traditional metrical analysis to provide new information about archaeological fallow deer populations, in particular highlighting the size variations across time and space and shifts in hunting and management practices. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Managing global heritage in the face of future climate change: the importance of understanding geological and geomorphological processes and hazards

It is now widely acknowledged that human adaptation of the planet is causing significant changes to the global climate, which are being felt currently and are likely to increase in the future. This is beginning to place exceptional strains on the historic environment, here defined as both above and below ground archaeological remains. Using examples from the cultural list of World Heritage Sites in mainland Britain, this paper explores how knowledge of past and contemporary geological and geomorphological processes can provide an understanding of natural hazards and risk assessment. This, in turn, can inform management strategies to allow the protection and stabilisation of sites, limit further degradation and ensure long-term sustainability. From the analysis of published documentation available from UNESCO, it appears that natural processes have not always received the attention they deserve, and in some cases appear to have been ignored. Given the complexity of future climate change and the role that natural processes will play in determining the vulnerability of individual heritage assets, it is essential that geoscientists, archaeologists and cultural heritage managers work together to develop appropriate strategies to mitigate the effects of change in the future, especially since many of the themes developed in this paper have generic applicability across a range of landscape environments.     

TUNING OF SEISMIC HAZARD ESTIMATES BY MEANS OF OBSERVED SITE INTENSITIES

Probabilistic seismic hazard is usually assessed by means of computer codes using seis-mogenic sources, parametric catalogues, seismicity rates and attenuation relationships. All these ingredients are conditioned by expert judgement that influences the final results. Even the attenuation relationships, though strictly based on experimental data, are considered a weak point due to the difficulty of modelling the interaction between seismic energy radiation and site response, and because earthquakes do not usually repeat themselves according to one theoretical model. Recently, methods making wide use of site intensity data have been developed in regions such as Italy, where the observed seismic history at selected sites is quite exhaustive. We analyzed these observations to assess seismic hazard at about 600 sites. We used a probabilistic counting technique, integrating the observations (when necessary), with computed shakings obtained from a logistic-type attenuation model. The results were then compared with the estimates provided by the recent seismic hazard map of Italy, compiled according to the traditional probabilistic seismic hazard approach. The match shows significant differences for some sites. A tentative explanation which seems to point to three alternatives is provided: (1) The mismatch between the two methodologies might appear because the stationary assumption has a poor fit with reality (at least in certain areas); (2) Some sites show a response that is systematically different from the average values predicted using attenuation relationships; (3) The definition of seismogenic zones leads to a bias in the seismicity rate estimate.