建国53年来中国宏观经济发展的若干特点--在2003年中国现代经济史年会上的讲话

建国初期到中共十一届三中全会以前,中国的宏观经济从总的时间序列上看,可划分为第一个五年计划时期、第二个五年计划时期、调整时期和"文化大革命"时期四个阶段,每个阶段都有其各自的特点.这个历史时期的经济发展战略是以优先发展重工业为主导,强调发展速度;战略推行的结果虽然成功地建立了一个比较完整的国民经济体系,但在产业结构、积累和消费的关系、增长方式、增长的波动性方面存在不少问题.与此相适应建立起来的集中计划经济体制对于集中力量搞建设是起了作用的,但从效率上讲是失败的.十一届三中全会以来中国的经济体制和经济发展模式发生了深刻的变化,但传统计划经济体制的影响依然对今后的改革与发展构成一定的障碍.     

我国旅游运行宏观管理的六大要领

本文从主题词界定入手,讨论了我国旅游运行的宏观管理问题。本文认为,对旅游运行实行宏观管理是一项系统工程,其顺利实施取决于有效把握六大要领,即：市场经济价值观是旅游运行宏观管理的根本性指导思想;主客关系是旅游运行宏观管理的核心性社会关系;旅行社是旅游运行宏观管理中的主轴性行业;旅游资源是旅游运行宏观管理的决定性物质基础;多元系统网络结构是旅游运行宏观管理的突出特点;法制建设是旅游运行宏观管理的重要保障。     

Distribution patterns of cultivated plants in the Eastern Alps (Central Europe) during Iron Age

Carbonized fruits and seeds from two recently investigated Iron Age hilltop settlements, one located north and the other south of the main Alpine range, were analyzed and reveal a detailed insight in the subsistence strategies of the Eastern Alps. The results were compared with archaeobotanical data sets from other Iron Age excavation sites in Austria, Eastern Switzerland and Northern Italy. On the basis of variable data from 17 sites it is not possible to detect a geographical pattern through statistical analyses. On the basis of the frequencies, however, it becomes clear that the principal cereals were Hordeum vulgare (hulled six-rowed barley), Triticum dicoccon and T. spelta (emmer and spelt) and Panicum miliaceum (broomcorn millet). In addition, foxtail millet (Setaria italica) as well as naked wheat played some role. Legumes such as Vicia faba (horse bean) and Pisum sativum (pea) also occurred regularly and supplemented the diet of the prehistoric settlers. More systematic research with standardized methods is however urgently needed to corroborate the existing data.     

A Procedure to Investigate the Collapse Behavior of Masonry Domes: Some Meaningful Cases

Masonry domes represent an important part of the architectural heritage. However, the literature about domes analysis seems less consistent than that referred to other masonry structures. The collapses that have happened in recent years as a consequence of seismic actions or lack of maintenance show the need for detailed studies. Here a limit analysis to evaluate the masonry domes behavior is presented. An algorithm based on the kinematic approach has been developed to evaluate the geometric position of the hinges that determine the minimum collapse load multiplier. The proposed procedure is validated by a comparison with some meaningful cases—the collapse of Anime Sante Church in L’Aquila, the collapse of San Nicolò Cathedral in Noto, the crack pattern of San Carlo Alle Quattro Fontane Church in Rome, and the analysis developed on Hagia Sofia in Istanbul. The comparison with real cases shows a good agreement between the model results and the phenomenological crack patterns.     

Advancing the Analysis of Past Human/Plant Relationships: Methodological Improvements of Artefact Pollen Washes

The ‘pollen washes’ technique, based on the analysis of the pollen embedded in the porous surface of archaeological artefacts, is developed for investigating past plant usage and consumption and to characterize the functionality of artefacts related to plant processing, gathering and storage. The research presented results in relevant methodological improvements of this technique, which has never previously been applied on materials from European contexts. The improvements allow: (1) faster analysis of a broad series of artefacts or those with large use‐surface areas likely to retain more pollen; and (2) a more thorough, deeper and precise cleaning method, allowing the study of smoother artefacts. Finally, the recovery of Trifolium‐group pollen from a macro‐lithic tool from Xicotó rock shelter (Montsec ranges, Spain) demonstrates that the pollen washes technique can reveal new insights into both the use and consumption of wild and domestic plants by prehistoric societies, and the functionality of archaeological objects whose interpretation is still problematic.     

我国商人流迁机制研究

农村劳动力大规模跨区域性流动是20世纪90年代以来中国社会经济生活中最引人注目的现象。本文从宏观和微观两个层面上分析探讨了我国商人流迁的机制。农村和城市经济体制改革的互动、区域经济发展的非平衡性与商人趋利求富的内在本性的统一、农村结构变革的内在矛盾与户籍管理制度的约束构成了流动商崛起的宏观背景与机制;比较利益的驱动与预期收益的差异、流动商自身素质的差异、文化观念的嬗变及社会关系网络等成为影响商人流迁行为的微观机制。     

Geschichte ohne Kausalität. Abgrenzungsstrategien gegen die Wissenschaftssoziologie in zeitgenössischen Ansätzen historischer Epistemologie

History Without Causality. How Contemporary Historical Epistemology Demarcates Itself From the Sociology of Scientific Knowledge. Contemporary proponents of historical epistemology often try to delimit their enterprise by demarcating it from the sociology of scientific knowledge and other sociologically oriented approaches in the history of science. Their criticism is directed against the use of causal explanations which are deemed to invite reductionism and lead to a totalizing perspective on science. In the present article I want to analyse this line of criticism in what I consider are two paradigmatic works of contemporary historical epistemology: Lorraine Daston's und Peter Galison's Objectivity and Hans‐Jörg Rheinberger's Toward a History of Epistemic Things. I first present their arguments against the sociological and causal analysis of scientific knowledge and practice and then try to defend sociological work in the history of science against their charges. I will, however, not do so by defending causal explanations directly. Rather, I will show that the arguments against sociological analysis put forward in contemporary historical epistemology, as well as historical epistemology's own models of historical explanation and narration, bear problematic consequences. I argue that Daston, Galison and Rheinberger fail to create productive resonances between macro‐ and microhistorical perspectives, that they reproduce an internalist picture of scientific knowledge, and finally that Rheinberger's attempt to deconstruct the dichotomy between subject and object leads him to neglect questions about the political dimension of scientific research.     

MARGINS AND MONSTERS: HOW SOME MICRO CASES LEAD TO MACRO CLAIMS1

How do micro cases lead us to surprising macro claims? Historians often say that the micro level casts light on the macro level. This metaphor of “casting light” suggests that the micro does not illuminate the macro straightforwardly; such light needs to be interpreted. In this essay, I propose and clarify six interpretive norms to guide micro‐to‐macro inferences. I focus on marginal groups and monsters. These are popular cases in social and cultural histories, and yet seem to be unpromising candidates for generalization. Marginal groups are dismissed by the majority as inferior or ill‐fitting; their lives seem intelligible but negligible. Monsters, on the other hand, are somehow incomprehensible to society and treated as such. First, I show that, by looking at how a society identifies a marginal group and interacts with it, we can draw surprising inferences about that society's self‐image and situation. By making sense of a monster's life, we can draw inferences about its society's mentality and intelligibility. These will contest our conception of a macro claim. Second, I identify four risks in making such inferences — and clarify how norms of coherence, challenge, restraint, connection, provocation, and contextualization can manage those risks. My strategy is to analyze two case studies, by Richard Cobb, about a band of violent bandits and a semi‐literate provincial terrorist in revolutionary France. Published in 1972, these studies show Cobb to be an inventive and idiosyncratic historian, who created new angles for studying the micro level and complicated them with his autobiography. They illustrate how a historian's autobiographical, literary, and historiographical interests can mix into a risky, and often rewarding, style.     

历史研究的若干基本问题

历史研究有“经世致用”、“智识兴趣”、“人类自我认识”这三类基本目的,它们又各自导致种种优劣有别的不同史学。历史研究的基本目的决定了宏观思考至关重要,因为这意味着史事探究达到在总体上的统一性和揭示历史的深层含义,与此相关,理论对于具体的历史研究有优越的启示、梳理和升华功能,并且对于历史经验和教益能起到特别有力的推广作用。历史思索和论说的理论化包括(1)现成理论的连贯的运用,(2)理论性的创造式宏．观思考。成熟和高超的理论化是隐含的而非明示的,有机的而非教条的,倚重经典方法而非滥用社会科学。历史研究的基本目的,特别是经世致用,使当代史研究具有非常重大的意义。     

司马光的易学历史观探析

本文主要探讨司马光的史学与其经学之一的易学之间的关系。司马光通过其易学形式表达了独具特色的历史观。他提出易道的观念,认为凡宇宙之间皆易,易就是阴阳之变、五行之化,这就对自然和人类历史发展的普遍性原则作出了界定;又提出圣人作《易》,为数亦为义,义急、数亦急,以义与数作为历史发展普遍性原则的重要内容;并认为《易》是对易道的表征,《易》有见微而知彰、原始而知终的史学功能;在探讨自然和人类历史存在的形式时,司马光还提出阳非阴不成,阴非阳不生,阴阳之道表里相承的观点,为人类社会历史发展揭示了其应有的价值目标和方向。