现代化进程中的民主与威权--对巴西1964年军事政变经济根源的个案研究

根据传统的西方现代化理论,欠发达社会的现代化进程中,经济发展与政治民主是同步发展、相互促进的。但20世纪60年代以来非西方国家的政治发展现实对这一观点提出了挑战。在巴西,经济现代化带来了威权主义,而非民主政治。其原因在于巴西的现代化模式进口替代工业化的发展过程中,必然出现通货膨胀和国际收支危机,经济的进一步发展要求首先实行经济紧缩,而经济上的紧缩则要求政治上的权威。巴西1964年的政变虽只是一个个案,但它表明,不能用西方现代化“和谐的”、“直线的”道路来分析第三世界国家的现代化。     

China's Exchange Rate Controversy: A Balanced Analysis

A noted American authority on China's economy and monetary policy presents a statistical as well as theoretical analysis of a variety of perspectives on the controversy surrounding China's currency, basing his paper on both. The author provides the historical background and comprehensive summaries, focusing on different viewpoints about whether China's currency is undervalued, and thus may contribute to global imbalances. In the paper, he divides observers involved in the controversy into two main camps, namely the ones who find China's trade balances to be sensitive to price effects through exchange rate adjustments and those who emphasize other factors as bearing the responsibility for China's large surpluses, including the U.S. credit bubble emerging before the global financial crisis, as well as a version of Dutch disease.     

The Russian Stabilization Fund and Its Successor: Implications for Inflation

A senior Japanese specialist on Russia's economy and its oil- and gas-producing sectors analyzes the functions and performance of the Stabilization Fund of the Russian Federation and the new system replacing it in 2008. The Fund, created to diminish the effects of possible future decreases in oil prices on federal budget revenues and to absorb excess liquidity in the economy, was expected to exert a major curb on inflation. The author investigates the extent to which the latter, inflation-fighting role of the Fund has been fulfilled, given increases in the country's money supply and in state-regulated prices within the natural monopolies. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E50, E62, H20, H60. 4 figures, 5 tables, 25 references.     

Reflections on Ukraine's Current Economic Dilemma

A prominent specialist on economic transition in the former Soviet Union presents an overview of Ukraine's economic dilemma in the aftermath of the most recent elections in that country. The author, a former economic advisor to Ukraine's government and co-chair of the UN's Blue Ribbon Commission for Ukraine, relates his insights into the causes of three acute problems (inflation, corruption, and the lack of structural reforms). Focusing on the state of economic affairs in 2008, the paper, which includes data on economic growth and exchange rates, discusses inter alia the hryvnia's peg to the dollar and the potential consequences of rising food and commodity prices. Included in the analysis is a comparison with Russia. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E58, E60, O52, P26. 34 references.     

Inventories and the Analysis of Wealth and Consumption Patterns In St. Mary's County,Maryland, 1658–1777

Abstract. This article is the first systematic attempt to measure the existence and degree of dowry inflation in South Asia. The popular press and scholarly literature have assumed dowry inflation in South Asia for some time, and there are now a number of theoretical papers that have attempted to explain the rise of dowries in South Asia. Despite these advances, there has been no systematic study of dowry inflation. Using large-sample retrospective survey data from India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nepal, researchers assess the empirical evidence for dowry inflation. They find no evidence that real dowry amounts have systematically increased over time in South Asia.     

Equation and Adequation: The World Traced by the Phillips Curve

This paper considers the power of abstract formalization in capitalism, via an account of the politics and geography of an equation. The equation in question lies behind the Phillips curve, which describes the relation between price inflation and unemployment or output. I examine the evolution of the equation and its relation to macroeconomics' renewed emphasis, since the late 1960s, on long‐run monetary neutrality. Considering the Phillips curve and its theoretical and technical armature as social practice, I discuss some of the political and distributional questions that arise from the mode of spatial and temporal abstraction particular to modern macroeconomic analysis and policy‐making. The paper has three parts: a brief history of the Phillips curve, an examination of its modern equation‐form, and an analysis of its part in the dialectical process of “real abstraction”, through which logical space and time prioritize and produce both the spatial “macro” and the temporal “long‐run”.     

Economic Protectorate in Britain’s Informal Empire: The Trucial Coast during the Second World War

This article examines the economic and political impact of the Second World War upon a small outpost of Britain’s informal empire. It analyses the multiple ways in which the economy, trade and governance of the Trucial Coast were disrupted, disturbed and challenged by the exceptional circumstances of the war. In response to these circumstances, a variety of emergency arrangements were introduced, resulting in an unprecedented degree of involvement of outsiders and foreign agencies in the management of the local economy. The transformation of Britain’s traditional policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of the Trucial Coast is traced back to the exigencies of wartime conditions.     

伪满洲国强制储蓄政策的经济后果——基于两部门国民收入决定模型的分析

本文借助扩展的两部门国民收入决定模型分析伪满洲国强制储蓄政策的经济负效应。强制储蓄政策及其税收性在降低当前消费的同时并未形成消费者的未来消费,导致消费者的终生消费现值下降。在强制储蓄政策下,民族产业面临逐渐萎缩的危险。金融市场规模萎缩、利润空间的压缩以及伪满洲国政府在民间金融机构中推行强制储蓄措施,使伪满洲国的民族金融业难以维系。为日本侵略战争服务的统制经济体制下,强制储蓄政策虽然带来军事工业及相关产业的产出增加,却导致这些产业利润率的极度恶化。从宏观角度看,强制储蓄政策引起了经济增长减速、虚假充分就业等严重的宏观经济问题。     

Quantitative Studies of National Socialism: A Quantum: Conference Report

The authors present and compare new time series for calculating the real value of Swiss prices over the past five centuries. They analyze three different modes of price deflation using wages, consumer price indices (CPIs), and the gross domestic product (GDP), and assess the merits and limitations of each approach. The authors then examine how time series that cover long periods of time are made using Switzerland as a case study and introduce an original CPI for the years 1501-2006. The authors conclude by contrasting the different time series and proposing rough guidelines about their use.     

Ukraine's Financial Crisis, 2009

A prominent specialist in the economic affairs of the former Soviet Union relates and analyzes the state of Ukraine's economy in light of a series of discussions and interviews with the country's Prime Minister and leading economic officials in Kyiv in 2008 and April 2009. The author, a former economic advisor to the country's government and co-chair of the UN's Blue Ribbon Commission for Ukraine, devotes this paper to a penetrating analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 on Ukraine's budget, banks, exchange rates, money supply, industrial sectors (particularly energy and steel), GDP, and inflationary pressures. Due attention is given to economic relations with the EU and Russia as well as to financial assistance from the IMF.Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E500, E600, O520, P200. 1 table, 4 figures, 38 references.