Sustaining China's Economic Growth: New Leaders,New Directions?

An American specialist on the economy of China assesses the options and obstacles the country's new leadership will face as it attempts to sustain the current economic growth trajectory in the future. Putting the current situation in historical context, the author first reviews the reforms leading up to the agenda advanced by the previous leadership team (led by Hu Jintao) and then examines the health of China's economy in late 2012 (a situation she argues is characterized by the exhaustion of three key drivers of growth). The paper advances the thesis that further reforms and improvements in technology will be essential to sustained growth, and that additional reforms will be necessary before sustained innovation can take root. As signs of successful further reform going forward, readers are advised to look to increased private-sector legitimacy, a decline in state-sector monopoly power, and strengthening of legal foundations for reform policies.     

Children of migrants in China in the twenty-first century: trends,living arrangements,age-gender structure,and geography

ABSTRACT

Children – including those of migrants – are China’s future. Children of migrants now make up close to 40% of all children in China. This paper analyzes the recent trends from 2000 to 2016 and the major aspects of the children of migrants by distilling data from multiple large national surveys and assessing the very small rural left-behind children (LBC) population figures published by the Ministry of Civil Affairs in 2016. The paper also develops a method to estimate the LBC population generated by migrants in each provincial destination between 2010 and 2015, linking up different but related populations (adult migrants, migrant children, and LBC) in the origins and destinations. This broader “origin-destination” framework allows us to pinpoint clearly a major driver of LBC and hence to identify provinces needing the most attention in national and provincial efforts to alleviate the problem of LBC.

Abbreviations: MC: Migrant Children; LBC: Left-Behind Children; MPR: Migration Participation Rate: LBCG: Left-Behind Children Generated     

Misconceptions and Complexities in the Study of China's Cities: Definitions,Statistics, and Implications

A noted American authority on urbanization and the household registration system in China reviews and clarifies factors leading to misunderstanding and misconceptions regarding the number of inhabitants of China's major cities. Principal sources of confusion linked to reliance on official statistical sources are the multi-layered meanings of the term "city" and, consequently, simultaneous publication and use of a multitude of official population statistics for the country's "cities." Other complicating factors analyzed by the author include the effects of the Chinese hukou (household registration) system and the rapid rate of urban growth and change over the last three decades. Systematic population and per capita GDP data for the years 2000 and 2005, all based on the multiple boundaries and systems for five major cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen), are collected to illustrate both the countrywide situation and specific cases. Also included is a critique of several studies and popular accounts of Chinese cities to highlight misstatements and areas of misunderstanding based on inappropriate use of statistical data. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O18, O53, P20, R12. 2 figures, 6 tables, 130 references.     

General Resolution of the Third Congress of the Geographical Society of the USSR

Calorimetric measurements show that the amount of energy accumulated in the organic matter of a semidesert community of Azerbaydzhan ranges from 3663 to 5754 calories per gram of dry mass. Under semidesert conditions only 1 to 3 percent of incoming light energy is accumulated in the mass of a plant community. This agrees with similar determinations of the accumulation of energy in a forest community (Ovington and Heitcamp, 1960). Empirical formulas are used to compute the energy accumulated in one gram of plant mass of an entire community and to calculate the level of use of radiation energy (the share of energy accumulated in plant matter plus the energy used to evaporate). The results agree fairly well with data derived by other techniques.     

The Global Economic Crisis and Unemployment in China

Two noted academic specialists on labor economics and population statistics of China examine the impacts of the global economic crisis of 2008-2009 on the job security of urban workers, and the ensuing repercussions for the Chinese society and economy. More specifically, they probe and determine the magnitude of urban unemployment in China in 2008 and 2009 as it appears to be reported in different segments of the country's immense labor market. A particular focus of the paper is on differences in unemployment among two groups of workers (those with urban hukou vis-à-vis rural migrant workers) with significantly different sets of rights and privileges, as well as levels of job security. The authors also provide an estimate of the urban unemployment rate in 2009 that differs from the official rate. They argue that measures toward further integration of rural and urban labor markets and reducing natural unemployment are ultimately more beneficial than short-term interventions to adjust cyclical joblessness stemming from the global economic crisis and recession.     

China's New Leaders: Perspectives on Geographic Trends and Realities

A senior American specialist on the geography of China examines several aspects of China's society, economy, regional organization, and geopolitical position in light of the change in the country's leadership at the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in November 2012. After a brief comparison of the incoming and retiring leadership groups in terms of backgrounds and past policy pronouncements (as well as discussing the challenge posed by corruption), the author proceeds to discuss a series of key social and regional development policies that may be subject to some degree of change under the new leadership, including hukou and the one-child policy. He then focuses on the 12th Five-Year Plan, which provides a broad outline of the new leadership's goals, and particularly its emphasis on balanced regional development (a commitment to further develop the interior of the country as well as to revitalize the old heavy industrial region, the Northeast). The author then turns to China's growing military (and particularly naval) power in connection with its increasing assertion of territorial claims in the South and East China Seas as well as ability to project naval power across the Taiwan Strait and beyond into the Pacific and Indian Ocean theaters.     

Migration and regional inequality: changing characteristics of China’s economic inequality

Scholars studying economic inequality in China have maintained that regional inequality and economic divergence across provinces have steadily increased over the past 30 years. New studies have shown that this trend is a statistical aberration; calculations show that instead of quickly and sharply rising, regional inequality has actually decreased, and most recently, remained stable. Our study suggests that China’s unique migratory regime is crucial to understanding these findings. We conduct a counterfactual simulation to demonstrate how migration and remittances have mitigated income inequality across provinces in order to show that without these processes, we would have seen more of a rise in interprovincial income inequality. We conclude by arguing that inequality in China is still increasing, but it is changing and becoming less place-based. As regional inequality decreases, there are signs that point to the increasing importance of interpersonal inequality.     

Return migration in China: a case study of Zhumadian in Henan province

This paper examines the causes and process of return migration from the coastal region to the inland provinces in China since the early 2010s, based on the case study of Zhumadian city in Henan Province. Surveys administered to both rural migrants from Zhumadian to Shenzhen and recent returnees to Zhumadian are presented. Industrial relocation and the development of inland provinces trigger the current wave of return migration. Family obligations, better prospects of the hometown, and barriers to settle in Shenzhen because of the hukou system are the principal reasons to return. Most of the migrants return to work in a factory or start a business. Some migrants purchase apartments in Zhumadian as a prelude to returning and starting a business at a future date. Returnees prefer settling down in urban areas rather than in their rural origins. In light of the empirical findings, the authors argue that return migration will ease the mismatch of labor supply and demand between the inland and coastal provinces, such that the Lewis Turning Point has not been reached yet. The continuing process of rural migrants returning to and settling down in Zhumadian suggests a way to achieve some of the goals in China’s new-type urbanization plan, as local governments may address the two major challenges of the plan, namely, local job creation and financing for increased demand for public services.     

Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on China's Migrant Workers: A Survey of 2,700 in 2009

An Australian geographer examines the effects of the global financial crisis on China's migrant workers, based on a recent survey of over 2,700 such workers conducted during January-February 2009. The author focuses on the number of migrant workers returning to their home villages for the annual New Year holiday period, the types of workers that were laid off, options available to such workers upon losing employment, and the reasons underlying their subsequent moves. Implications of the findings for labor policy in China are briefly outlined and several directions for future research identified. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E240, G010, J610, J690. 7 tables, 68 references.     

A China Paradox: Migrant Labor Shortage amidst Rural Labor Supply Abundance

A U.S. geographer and noted authority on China's urbanization seeks to explain the apparent paradox between reported recent shortages of migrant labor in cities in eastern China's export-oriented manufacturing belt and the abundant supply of labor in China's rural areas. He examines important socioeconomic contexts often overlooked in the debate over whether China has reached the Lewis turning point (when dual rural-urban labor markets begin to merge and a labor surplus economy is transformed into a full-employment economy), which make possible the existence of such shortages over the short term and in local areas. These include the special characteristics of China's export industrialization (e.g., preference for workers in the age category 16-30); its immense migrant labor force, constrained under the hukou system; the short-term impacts of China's economic stimulus program launched in early 2009 in the wake of the global economic crisis; and cycles in the global economy that support or impede export production.