INVESTMENT RISK AND THE TRANSITION INTO HOMEOWNERSHIP*

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the extent to which house–price uncertainty affects the transition of renter households into homeownership. Using a 14‐year household panel from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics during the years 1984–1997 and measures of the time‐varying risk and return to owner‐occupied housing, we estimate a Cox proportional hazard model of the effect of house–price volatility on the transition into homeownership. Results indicate that house–price uncertainty has a negative and dramatic impact on transitions into homeownership. In addition, we find that the low‐wealth renters are particularly sensitive to house–price risk.     

西方城市居住行为研究进展及其对中国的启示

改革开放40年以来,住房市场化转型使中国拥有了一个相对独特的住房制度环境,对城市空间结构、居民居住状况和民生福祉等各方面都产生了深远影响。中央政府明确强调需加快研究建立符合国情、适应市场规律的房地产基础性制度和长效机制,而这需要对城市居民微观居住行为进行深入研究。居住行为作为城市地理学的重要议题,近年来,相关研究虽不断涌现,但尚缺乏系统的理论梳理和实证研究总结。本文利用知识图谱可视化刻画了居住行为研究热点的演化,从居住迁移、住房产权获得、住房生涯三方面对西方相关研究进展和前沿进行评述,并进一步梳理了居住行为与城市空间的关系,以深化对城市居住空间分异机制的理解;在总结中西方差异的基础上,对中国现有实证研究进行了回顾;立足于中国国情和现有住房政策,分别从理论、内容、数据和方法三个方面对未来中国居住行为研究方向进行展望,旨在引起学术界对居住行为的关注,为推动中国居住行为研究理论构建、理解社会空间重构机制提供参考。     

Newcomers in the Canadian housing market: a longitudinal study, 2001–2005

The Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Canada (LSIC) is used to investigate the participation of immigrants in Canada's housing market during the first four years of the settlement process, beginning in 2000–2001. The analysis focuses on the changing rate of homeownership, crowding and affordability. Special attention is given to differences between landing classes and population groups (especially visible minority groups). In general, the housing situation of LSIC survey respondents improved remarkably over the years covered by the survey. This is registered in a much higher rate of homeownership in the third wave of the survey (at four years after landing) compared with the first (six months after landing). Similarly, the ratio of survey respondents spending more than 30 percent of their total family income on housing dropped dramatically, as did the percentage living in crowded conditions. In other words, at least according to the measures explored here, LSIC suggests that the proportion of immigrants in precarious housing situations drops significantly in the early settlement period. This positive outcome is not universally shared, however, and certain groups—notably refugees, and immigrants of black and MiddleEastern background—see much less improvement in their circumstances than the average survey respondent.     

Migrant household homeownership outcomes in large Chinese cities - the sustained impact of hukou

Homeownership by migrant households in large Chinese cities is increasingly evident and sometimes blamed for driving up local housing prices. Hukou reform grants local hukou to migrants in small cities while it allows large cities to set up hukou entry barriers to control migration. This paper explores whether migrant households’ micro-level characteristics and macro-level urban policies relating to hukou reform have any impact on their housing tenure choices. Using data from a 2009 survey of migrant households in six large cities, this study adopts logistic regression models to examine factors influencing labor migrant households’ tenure decisions. We find that household income and head of household hukou type, contribution to pension fund, and enrollment in health insurance all positively predict homeownership. Migrant households are more likely to be found in cities with larger population size. We argue that city entry barriers create new forms of institutional haves and have-nots and new forms of inequality. The sustained impact of previous hukou types suggests inherited inequalities through intergenerational wealth transfer, which calls for targeted welfare policies to mediate.     

TO BUY OR NOT TO BUY: DETERMINANTS OF HOME OWNERSHIP AMONG GHANAIAN IMMIGRANTS IN TORONTO

Using information collected in a questionnaire survey, this study investigates the factors influencing the housing tenure of Ghanaian immigrants in Toronto. The study finds that Ghanaian immigrants have a low home-ownership rate compared to the Canadian-born population and other immigrant groups. This is partly attributable to the recency of their migration, their relatively low incomes, and their small household sizes. Analysis also shows that social and personal factors, notably the initial motives of the immigrants, their back-home ties, their desire for home ownership back home, and their intention to return there permanently, are critical in shaping their decisions with respect to home ownership in Canada.
Dans cette étude, nous examinons, à l'aide d'un sondage, les facteurs portant sur les modes de logement des immigrants ghanéens à Toronto. Nous démontrons que les Ghanéens sont propriétaires de leurs logements moins souvent que ne le sont les personnes nées au Canada ou les membres d'autres groupes d'immigrants. Le sondage révèle que la taille inférieure des ménages, les faibles revenus, et les dates d'immigration récentes des immigrants ghanéens sont parmi les causes principales de ce phénomène. L'analyse démontre aussi que des éléments sociaux ou personnels, tels les raisons initiales de l'immigration, les liaisons avec le lieu d'origine, le désir d'être propriétaire dans le lieu d'origine et l'intention ou non des immigrants de retourner au Ghana, sont d'une importance fondamentale lorsque les immigrants ghanéens prennent une décision à l'égard de l'achat d'un logement.     

DETERMINANTS OF IMMIGRANTS’ ENTRY TO HOMEOWNERSHIP IN THREE NORDIC CAPITAL CITY REGIONS

The extent of homeownership among immigrants may be seen as an indicator of integration and as a determinant of ethnic residential segregation. Studies have shown differences in the determinants of homeownership between immigrants and natives, indicating that variation in homeownership is not only a function of differences in economic resources. These studies have largely focused on Anglo‐American contexts, using mostly cross‐sectional data. We apply survival analysis methods to analyse the determinants of entry to homeownership in the capital regions of three Nordic countries – Denmark, Finland and Sweden – utilizing longitudinal individual‐level register‐based datasets. We find that differences in entry to homeownership between natives and different immigrant groups cannot be explained by differences in socio‐economic background factors. We also find differences in the effects of these factors. Effects of income are generally weaker among non‐Western immigrants and immigrants are less responsive to changes in household composition. The share of non‐Western immigrants in the neighbourhood is only weakly related to entry to homeownership, while immigrants and natives living in public rental housing tend to be slightly less inclined to move to homeownership. Weaker income effects among immigrants, weak effects of ethnic segregation and the importance of the public rental sector differentiate our results from earlier findings. Weaker income effects may indicate that uncertainty about the future also affects middle‐income immigrants. Differences between the three contexts in housing markets and policies do not seem to matter much, although the results indicate that difficult access to the private rental sector may push immigrants to homeownership.