VARYING EFFECT OF FERTILITY DETERMINANTS AMONG MIGRANT AND INDIGENOUS FEMALES IN THE TRANSITIONAL AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONE OF GHANA

The transitional agro‐ecological zone of Ghana, located between the richly endowed south and the impoverished north, has attracted seasonal and permanent farm migrants, mainly from northern Ghana, who now live side by side with the indigenous people. While migrants have higher numbers of Muslims, indigenous people are mainly Christians. Although the majority of the migrants live in migrant quarters with less favourable socio‐economic conditions, they are more successful farmers and therefore wealthier. The objectives are to examine the varying effect of fertility determinants among migrants and indigenous females. This paper uses data collected in 2002 among 194 females aged 15 to 49 years. Multiple regression models are used to assess fertility determinants. Results show that although migrant households were wealthier, migrant females were more traditional. They had more children living in foster care, and a lower proportion of them approved of men participating in household activities. In addition, they were less well educated, recorded higher infant mortality, gave birth earlier and used less contraception. Furthermore, while a female's migration status is statistically significant so far as non‐proximate determinants of fertility are concerned, the same variable is not significant with respect to proximate determinants. In addition, a married female migrant would on average have almost one more child compared to her indigenous counterpart, and migrant females who had experienced the loss of a child would on average have 2.5 more children compared to their indigenous counterparts. Finally, more affluent migrant females have 0.08 fewer children compared to their indigenous counterpart.     

Korean unification: a solution to the challenges of an increasingly elderly population?

South Korea experienced below replacement fertility for the first time in 1983, which also marked the point from which fertility rates continued to decline over the next 20 years to reach a low of 1.2 in 2003. In spite of recent pronatalist policies, the fertility rate has remained near this level and has not increased appreciably. The reasons for sustained low fertility in South Korea are complex and solutions remain elusive. One option that has been suggested is reunification with North Korea, which could address the eventual decline in the population and mitigate the increasing proportion of the elderly. Although the conditions surrounding the German reunification experience were vastly different than what Korea will likely undergo, it is informative to look at Germany as a guide to the demographic parameters of reunification. Three projection models for 2015–2050 are presented; even the highest fertility models show that reunification will not be the answer to population restructuring already underway in South Korea as a result of sustained low fertility.     

农村居民点用地整治潜力测算研究——以广东省五华县为例

以广东省五华县为例,以行政村为单元,在政策指标测算法的基础上,从自然环境状况、经济保障能力和社会因素等3方面构建理论潜力修正模型,将理论潜力修正为可实现潜力,并根据土地适宜性评价估算增加耕地潜力,以期为科学编制农村土地整治规划提供依据。研究表明,五华县农村居民点用地布局分散、规模小、空间差异显著,呈现出沿河谷、沿交通线路分布的典型特征。到2020年,农村居民点整治理论潜力为5683.91 hm²,北部村庄的整治潜力较大;可实现潜力修正系数为0.54,与理论潜力相差较大,各行政村之间差异明显;新增耕地潜力系数介于0.32-0.94,预计新增耕地1943.41 hm²,琴江、五华河沿线村庄的新增耕地潜力较大。建议实施差别化的农村居民点整治对策,推进五华县农村土地整治。     

黄宗智“过密化”理论中的事实判定、逻辑分析与模式建构问题——以《长江三角洲小农家庭与乡村发展》为中心

黄宗智的“过密化”理论自其《长江三角洲小农家庭与乡村发展》于20世纪90年代初出版之后一直在国内外史学界影响广泛,它认为明清以来的人口增长导致了长江三角洲植棉等经济行业的单位工作日劳动报酬的递减。鉴于史学界至今未有人从该书内部详细分析这一理论的实际论证过程,本文以此为切入点,指出它存在：一,植棉经济发韧于明代等诸多事实判定疏误或不当之处;二,抽样数据的数量严重不足等统计数据问题;三,植棉等经济行业的单位工作日劳动报酬因其单位产出价格的巨幅变动而无法简单比较等逻辑分析方面的问题。据此,本文认为该书没能有效证明过密化理论符合明清时期长江三角洲的历史发展事实。     

INTERGENERATIONAL PROXIMITY AND THE FERTILITY INTENTIONS OF MARRIED WOMEN

Explanations for very low fertility in ‘strong family’ countries emphasise the relatively high costs of childrearing but pay little attention to the potentially offsetting influences of distinctive living arrangements. In this paper, we use data from nationally representative surveys of married women of reproductive age in Japan and Italy to demonstrate that intergenerational co-residence and residential proximity to parents(-in-law) are positively associated with fertility intentions. We also examine ways in which relationships between living arrangements and fertility intentions may depend on family circumstances associated with the opportunity costs, psychological costs and economic costs of childrearing. Contrary to expectations, we find no evidence that intergenerational residential proximity is associated with higher fertility intentions among women for whom the opportunity costs of childrearing are thought to be the greatest. However, there is some relatively limited support for hypothesised moderating influences of the psychological and economic costs of childrearing.     

Comparing Projection Assumptions of Fertility in Six Advanced Asian Economies; or ‘Thinking Beyond the Medium Variant’

The United Nations' (UN) World Population Prospects are perhaps the most widely used population projections in both academic and policy discourses. In this short research note, we examine six advanced Asian economies, and compare the fertility assumptions used by the UN with those derived from local statistical offices (LSOs). We identify a significant divergence between them. When translated into total projected population size of younger age groups (0–14 years), the use of the UN rather than the LSO ‘medium’ projection can increase the total projected population size by up to 50% by 2040.     

From Fertility Intention to Fertility Behaviour

Using longitudinal data from Jiangsu Fertility Intention and Behaviour Study (JFIBS) from year 2007 and 2010, this study analyses the fertility intention and behaviour of women who are qualified to have two children from a psychosocial point of view. Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour, the theoretical framework from fertility intention to fertility behaviour is reconstructed. By observing the phenomenon from the micro-level, the gap between female fertility intention and behaviour and its associated factors are studied. The result shows that, given the situation of being qualified to have two children according to the government's birth control policy, when faced with the choice of whether to have a second child or not, people tend to make their decisions rationally. Attitudes towards fertility, subjective norms, and perceived behaviour control all contribute significantly to the discrepancy between fertility intention and behaviour. In addition, the formation of a concrete birth plan is a major driving force for translating fertility intention into action.     

A Tale of Two Cities: A Decomposition of Recent Fertility Changes in Shanghai and Hong Kong

In the past 20 years, Hong Kong and Shanghai's total fertility rates (TFR) have undergone drastic changes: first declining and then rebounding. We use a decomposition method to assess changes in the TFRs of these two cities during the period 1990–2010. During the period of decline from 1990 to 2000, the decrease in marital fertility rate (MFR) was the major cause behind Shanghai's TFR decline; the decrease in nuptiality and MFR were equally responsible for the decline in Hong Kong's TFR. During the 2000–2010 period, although the decline in nuptiality exerted downward pressure on TFR, both cities experienced an increase in TFR mainly due to an increase in the MFR. Analysis of the difference in TFR between the two cities in 2010/2011, also reveals that Hong Kong's marriage delay has a negative impact on fertility and it is the higher MFR that leads to a higher TFR than Shanghai's TFR. It also shows that a reduction of first- and second-order births is equally responsible for Shanghai's lower MFR. Despite the one-child policy in Shanghai, some couples continue to postpone their first births, while others have even chosen to be childfree (a preferred term to ‘childless’). The tempo distortion is diminishing more prominently in Hong Kong, while the decline in fertility aspiration adds much uncertainty to future fertility trends in Shanghai.     

Female Labour Force Participation and Fertility in South Korea

Drawing on data from the Korea Labour and Income Panel Study 1998?2008, this article attempts to assess the impact of female labour force participation on childbirth decisions in South Korea. To control for the dynamic processes through which soon-to-be mothers choose to get out of the labour force to give birth, empirical datasets using three different birth-month lag scenarios are examined: no lag; five-month lag; and eight-month lag. In addition parity-specific effects for the first and second childbirth are evaluated in consideration of previous findings showing different effects by birth order. Results suggest that, regarding the first birth, female labour force participation does not seem to have significantly diminished transition probability to first birth. Female labour force participation, however, appears to affect the second childbirth decision in a negative direction, although the impacts are not as great as have been widely publicised.     

Estimating Historical Total Fertility Rates for Australia and Its States

Abstract.

Australian Bureau of Statistics Total Fertility Rate (TFR) statistics are available from 1921 for Australia, and for census years between 1947 and 1966 for the states, and then on an annual basis from 1971. Using historical, statistical publications, annual TFRs for Australia and the states dating back to federation in 1901 were calculated directly in years where data are available and estimated indirectly via the standardized fertility ratio in other years. For some periods where direct TFR estimation was applied, age-specific births used in the numerators of fertility rates must be estimated from partial data. Combined with Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the authors’ estimated TFRs contribute an uninterrupted time series of national and state TFRs for Australia from 1901 to 2011.