黄宗智“过密化”理论中的事实判定、逻辑分析与模式建构问题——以《长江三角洲小农家庭与乡村发展》为中心

黄宗智的“过密化”理论自其《长江三角洲小农家庭与乡村发展》于20世纪90年代初出版之后一直在国内外史学界影响广泛,它认为明清以来的人口增长导致了长江三角洲植棉等经济行业的单位工作日劳动报酬的递减。鉴于史学界至今未有人从该书内部详细分析这一理论的实际论证过程,本文以此为切入点,指出它存在：一,植棉经济发韧于明代等诸多事实判定疏误或不当之处;二,抽样数据的数量严重不足等统计数据问题;三,植棉等经济行业的单位工作日劳动报酬因其单位产出价格的巨幅变动而无法简单比较等逻辑分析方面的问题。据此,本文认为该书没能有效证明过密化理论符合明清时期长江三角洲的历史发展事实。     

Korean unification: a solution to the challenges of an increasingly elderly population?

South Korea experienced below replacement fertility for the first time in 1983, which also marked the point from which fertility rates continued to decline over the next 20 years to reach a low of 1.2 in 2003. In spite of recent pronatalist policies, the fertility rate has remained near this level and has not increased appreciably. The reasons for sustained low fertility in South Korea are complex and solutions remain elusive. One option that has been suggested is reunification with North Korea, which could address the eventual decline in the population and mitigate the increasing proportion of the elderly. Although the conditions surrounding the German reunification experience were vastly different than what Korea will likely undergo, it is informative to look at Germany as a guide to the demographic parameters of reunification. Three projection models for 2015–2050 are presented; even the highest fertility models show that reunification will not be the answer to population restructuring already underway in South Korea as a result of sustained low fertility.     

20世纪90年代以来中国工业格局及其变化

本文从工业行业结构角度入手,以东中西为研究单元,结合全国30个省市,运用集中化指数、罗伦兹曲线等方法,分析1990年以来,中国工业行业格局和区域布局的变化情况,指出:东中西地区行业部门渐趋完备,但部门间发展不均衡程度加深;电子、机械类制造业在工业中的地位上升明显;工业对经济增长的贡献存在区际不平衡,东中西部地区依次减弱。     

INTERGENERATIONAL PROXIMITY AND THE FERTILITY INTENTIONS OF MARRIED WOMEN

Explanations for very low fertility in ‘strong family’ countries emphasise the relatively high costs of childrearing but pay little attention to the potentially offsetting influences of distinctive living arrangements. In this paper, we use data from nationally representative surveys of married women of reproductive age in Japan and Italy to demonstrate that intergenerational co-residence and residential proximity to parents(-in-law) are positively associated with fertility intentions. We also examine ways in which relationships between living arrangements and fertility intentions may depend on family circumstances associated with the opportunity costs, psychological costs and economic costs of childrearing. Contrary to expectations, we find no evidence that intergenerational residential proximity is associated with higher fertility intentions among women for whom the opportunity costs of childrearing are thought to be the greatest. However, there is some relatively limited support for hypothesised moderating influences of the psychological and economic costs of childrearing.     

Comparing Projection Assumptions of Fertility in Six Advanced Asian Economies; or ‘Thinking Beyond the Medium Variant’

The United Nations' (UN) World Population Prospects are perhaps the most widely used population projections in both academic and policy discourses. In this short research note, we examine six advanced Asian economies, and compare the fertility assumptions used by the UN with those derived from local statistical offices (LSOs). We identify a significant divergence between them. When translated into total projected population size of younger age groups (0–14 years), the use of the UN rather than the LSO ‘medium’ projection can increase the total projected population size by up to 50% by 2040.     

A Tale of Two Cities: A Decomposition of Recent Fertility Changes in Shanghai and Hong Kong

In the past 20 years, Hong Kong and Shanghai's total fertility rates (TFR) have undergone drastic changes: first declining and then rebounding. We use a decomposition method to assess changes in the TFRs of these two cities during the period 1990–2010. During the period of decline from 1990 to 2000, the decrease in marital fertility rate (MFR) was the major cause behind Shanghai's TFR decline; the decrease in nuptiality and MFR were equally responsible for the decline in Hong Kong's TFR. During the 2000–2010 period, although the decline in nuptiality exerted downward pressure on TFR, both cities experienced an increase in TFR mainly due to an increase in the MFR. Analysis of the difference in TFR between the two cities in 2010/2011, also reveals that Hong Kong's marriage delay has a negative impact on fertility and it is the higher MFR that leads to a higher TFR than Shanghai's TFR. It also shows that a reduction of first- and second-order births is equally responsible for Shanghai's lower MFR. Despite the one-child policy in Shanghai, some couples continue to postpone their first births, while others have even chosen to be childfree (a preferred term to ‘childless’). The tempo distortion is diminishing more prominently in Hong Kong, while the decline in fertility aspiration adds much uncertainty to future fertility trends in Shanghai.