REAL-TIME RISK ANALYSIS FOR HYBRID EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in reducing vulnerability and/or exposition of buildings and lifelines. In fact, recently seismologists developed efficient methods for rapid estimation of event features by means of limited information of the P-waves. Then, when an event is occurring, probabilistic distributions of magnitude and source-to-site distance are available and the prediction of the ground motion at the site, conditioned to the seismic network measures, may be performed in analogy with the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Consequently the structural performance may be obtained by the Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA), and used for real-time risk management purposes. However, such prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which have to be taken into proper account to limit false and missed alarms. In the present study, real-time risk analysis for early warning purposes is discussed. The magnitude estimation is performed via the Bayesian approach, while the earthquake localization is based on the Voronoi cells. To test the procedure it was applied, by simulation, to the EEWS under development in the Campanian region (southern Italy). The results lead to the conclusion that the PSHA, conditioned to the EEWS, correctly predicts the hazard at the site and that the false/missed alarm probabilities may be controlled by set up of an appropriate decisional rule and alarm threshold.     

"跑警报":西南联合大学战时生活研究之一

抗日战争期间,日军曾数百次对昆明狂轰乱炸,造成了重大的人员和财产损失,给当地民众的战时生活秩序产生了严重的影响.在对昆明的大轰炸中,当时中国的最高学府--西南联合大学也屡次遭袭,造成多名教职工伤亡,大量校舍和图书、仪器损毁.然而,敌人的轰炸并没有从精神上吓倒联大师生,大家积极采取措施防范空袭,在"跑警报"的过程中,人们的心态逐渐乐观起来.     

Feminism,the false consciousness of neoliberal capitalism? Informalization,fundamentalism, and women in an Indian city

Neoliberal globalization produces complex terrains of gender exploitation, with – some feminists argue – contradictory impacts on women. On the one hand, it subjects more women to increasing domination and devalorization by capital; on the other hand, women often ‘work’ globalization in ‘enabling’ ways. Informal jobs are often preferred sites for crafting economic emancipation and breaking away from patriarchy at home. Another body of literature argues that the feminization of informalization does not dismantle androcentric, neoliberal capitalism; moreover, reading these moments as women ‘working’ globalization represents a co-optation of women. Using examples of the feminization of informalization and ethno-religious gender violence in Ahmedabad city, India, this article critiques the concept of co-optation and argues that ‘actually existing women’ forge complex negotiations in the context of diverse exploitation, which can be conceptualized better with Marxian and Gramscian notions of false consciousness. The article also contends that understanding false consciousness as an assemblage where gender, class, caste, and ethnicity intersect in myriad ways will create possibilities for resistance.     

《东坡题跋》“记与蔡君谟论书”证伪

苏轼《东坡题跋》卷四“记与蔡君谟论书”一则,为古今研究苏轼和蔡襄者经常引用·本文考定其伪,系后人改窜欧阳修《欧阳文忠公集·试笔》之文。进而考定该文为欧阳修于嘉祐年间(1060-1063)的叙事和追述欧、蔡二人同为馆阁校勘至同知谏院(1040-1043)时事情,并确认欧文别本“今思此语,已十余年”实为“二十余年”之脱文。     

“跑警报”：西南联合大学战时生活研究之一

抗日战争期间,日军曾数百次对昆明狂轰乱炸,造成了重大的人员和财产损失,给当地民众的战时生活秩序产生了严重的影响。在对昆明的大轰炸中,当时中国的最高学府——西南联合大学也屡次遭袭,造成多名教职工伤亡,大量校舍和图书、仪器损毁。然而,敌人的轰炸并没有从精神上吓倒联大师生,大家积极采取措施防范空袭,在"跑警报"的过程中,人们的心态逐渐乐观起来。     

Circulation of Coronavirus Images: Helping Social Distancing?

As soon as the SARS-Cov2 disease was recognized by experts to potentially cause a serious pandemic, a three dimensional diagrammatic image of the virus, colored in strong red, conquered public media globally. This study confronts this iconic virus image with a historic image analysis of 33,000 biomedical articles on coronaviruses published between 1968–2020 and interviews with some of their authors. Only a small fraction of scientific virus publications entail images of the complete virus. Red as an alarm color is not used at all by scientists who don't aim for a non-scientific public. Circulation in this case concerns the movement of iconic images from a scientific context into a general public. On the basis of hps-studies on scientific diagrams and especially on color use in scientific diagrams to convey specific messages in public, the paper discusses the role of the claim of public corona-virus diagram as “scientific.” It points at relevant differences between most frequent scientific corona-virus images and the diagrammatic image used in public. Both author- and readerships (in science and public) follow contrasting aims and values. Thus, the images meet non-expert readers for whom the images entail very different – and potentially unintended – meanings then to virus experts.     

THE ENDURING PUBLIC STRUGGLE TO CONSTRUCT,CONTROL, AND CHALLENGE HISTORICAL MEMORIES

Sumit Guha's History and Collective Memory in South Asia, 1200–2000 develops important arguments about the public significance of historical knowledge and the essential role of historians in public life. All societies need collective memories to sustain their cultural identities, as Guha shows in this wide‐ranging account of how such memories have been constructed in South Asian societies since the thirteenth century. The knowledge of historical experts is increasingly challenged or derided by contemporary social groups and political activists, who circulate their own historical narratives via new networks of communication. Political uses of historical knowledge are not new, however, as Guha shows in detailed accounts of how Hindu, Muslim, and British imperial regimes all used historical narratives to justify their own power. He also explains how other social groups challenged official historical narratives with their own popular stories about the past. This book contributes to recent work in global intellectual history by comparing similarities in the historical practices of premodern Europe and South Asia, discussing the cross‐cultural exchanges in colonial‐era institutions, and describing postcolonial challenges to European ideas. Guha thus offers an insightful analysis of how social and political forces influence and respond to the cloistered institutions that produce historical knowledge and construct collective memories. He concludes that evidence‐based historical narratives must be continually defended amid current public assaults on historical knowledge in both South Asia and the United States. More generally, Guha's book suggests the need for ongoing analysis of how public events, social conflicts, and new communication systems can reshape or discredit the work of historical experts.     

东周时期车马祭祀探论

车马祭祀可以上溯至殷商时期。西周时期,车马用于周王室的重大祀典。东周时期,祭祀礼制逐渐被破坏,各诸侯国僭越周礼规定,车马被广泛用于郊祀、宗庙祭祖、社祀、山川望祭、盟誓、方神等各种祭祀,祭法多采用沉和瘗埋的方式。随着社会的发展及祭祀观念的变化,最迟到战国中期,木偶车马被用于祭祀,成为秦汉以后车马祭祀的发展趋势。     

Noah’s Grandson and St. James: Rewriting the Past in Eighteenth-Century Spain

ABSTRACT

In the late seventeenth century, when Spain gradually emerged from the general crisis that had afflicted the country, several members of the cultural elite became acquainted with the new sophisticated theories and methods of modern science. This newly acquired knowledge inspired these novatores (innovators) to examine Spain’s history and historiography. They intended in the first place to integrate and align Spain with European culture at large, since the religious and ideological obstacles of the past were supposedly no longer in force. Their second purpose was to establish a scientifically based historical discourse focused on the genuine achievements of Spain over the centuries and its contribution to European civilization. They were thus willing to confront the long-standing distortions arising from propaganda, either from the outside—such as the “black legend” forged by the enemies of Spain—or from inside—such as the “fake glories” forged by earlier historians. Diverse circumstances, however, limited their enlightened endeavour, and whoever was eager to resume it in the eighteenth century came up against the restrictions imposed on modern culture by Enlightened despotism.