国内旅游：重新认识与发展构想

多年来,国内旅游业服务质量低,设施条件差,潜在市场不能及时转化为现实市场。本文分析了制约国内旅游业发展的因素和国内旅游市场的潜力,提出国内旅游业的发展构想。     

青海省培养新型农牧民的制约因素及其对策

培养造就“有文化、懂技术、会经营”的新型农牧民,是建设社会主义新农村新牧区最本质、最核心的内容,也是全面落实科学发展观的必然要求。本文就青海省在新农村新牧区建设中培养新型农牧民的有关问题进行了分析,并提出了相应的建议和对策。     

固定和浮放条件下文物展柜动力响应分析与试验研究

目前对文物保护的研究主要以试验为主,本研究试图用数值方法分析文物展柜的动力学特性,以解决试验分析方法所导致的缺陷。为此,对固定和浮放两种不同边界条件的文物展柜进行地震作用和简谐激励下的动力响应分析,给出了展柜展台面处的加速度动力放大系数(简称放大系数)上限值。以某博物馆展柜为原型,按1∶1/0.39进行缩尺振动试验,得出两种边界条件下展柜展台面处的放大系数。对试验展柜建立有限元模型,通过与试验对比,验证模型及分析方法的正确性。然后,建立展柜模型的有限元模型,对5种尺寸的展柜进行了动力响应分析,并考虑激励幅值、激励频率等对放大系数的影响。分析结果有助于指导文物的防震保护工作。     

The equally “bad” French and English farmers of Quebec: New TFP measures from the 1831 census

New TFP estimates drawn from the neglected census of 1831 for Lower Canada are used to test the controversial (but still dominant) traditional “poor French farmers” explanation for a prolonged economic crisis. The new evidence shows that French-speaking areas were equally as productive as English-speaking areas, something that upturns the established consensus and reinforces the minority viewpoint that culture had little to do with the crisis. Using a broad range of controls, the researchers find that this conclusion is robust and that other variables such as settlement recency, environment, and economic structure were much more significant determinants of TFP. These results warrant the abandonment of the cultural explanation and a shift toward other explanatory channels.     

Factor Decomposition of Rural Income Inequalities in China

A Chinese geographer explores changes in inter-provincial rural income inequality in China since the late-1970s economic reforms by decomposing it into different component factors based on the Gini index (more specifically, into contributions by different income sources: wages, household operations, properties, and transfers). The influence of each factor on inequality changes is further decomposed into its structure effects and its real inequality effects. Quantitative analysis then makes it possible to determine the relative influence of each component on changes in rural provincial inequality over time.     

Unique marine taphonomy in human skeletal material recovered from the medieval warship Mary Rose

The effect of skeletal exposure in a marine environment is an area of taphonomy that has been little investigated at the microscopic level. Understanding the peri‐mortem and subsequent post mortem history of deposition and/or redeposition is extremely important for event reconstruction and to identify deliberate or accidental redeposition. The material used for this study comes primarily from the Mary Rose shipwreck (a marine mass fatality dated AD 1545), and forensic material recovered from marine, lacustrine and terrestrial contexts is retrospectively referenced. Work presented here outlines a definitive type of marine exposure seen in temperate shallow off‐shore and intertidal marine contexts, and illustrates how it may be differentially identified from terrestrial deposition and exposure. Furthermore, the effects of rapid deposition on skeletal remains have been documented, and results indicate that marine organism fouling activity can be fully inhibited by rapid deposition of sediment. The responsible organism itself remains unidentified, but produces tunnels which are peripheral in their distribution and maintain fixed dimensions and morphology and are here associated with marine exposure. This type of microstructural change is unique and is not found in terrestrial or freshwater contexts. The study demonstrates a taphonomic microstructural change to bone and teeth which may be identified microscopically and interpreted as evidence of marine exposure. Secondarily, the history of depositional exposure between the two main Tudor layers has provided a new level of detail concerning exposure and site formation processes. The earliest Tudor layer formed rapidly over a period of months and contained no evidence of microstructural tunnelling, whereas microstructural tunnelling was seen exclusively in the second Tudor layer, formed over a period of decades, a period during which the ship's hull collapsed and a more open marine environment dominated. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

濒危世界遗产威胁因素分析与中国世界遗产保护对策

研究导致世界遗产"濒危"的威胁因素能够为我国世界遗产管理与保护提供重要借鉴。对全球濒危世界遗产威胁因素定量统计发现:武装冲突、管理不力、工程建设是世界文化遗产与世界自然遗产共同面临的三大威胁;世界文化遗产的主要濒危因素还包括城市发展压力、不合适的维修/重建等;世界自然遗产濒危因素则还包括非法偷猎、捕捞,以及林业采伐、农业种植、放牧等农林生产活动等。中国世界遗产面临的首要威胁因素是旅游发展压力,管理问题、城市发展压力、水利工程建设等也较为突出。提出中国世界遗产保护建议:明确遗产旅游价值取向,加强高峰期游客管理,控制旅游设施建设规模;提升管理水平与管理能力,探索世界遗产管理的新体系、新思路;妥善处理好城市发展对世界文化遗产的保护压力,积极预防极端自然灾害的破坏;严格控制世界自然遗产地内的道路建设、水利工程建设等。     

基于验证性因素分析的旅游地地方依恋结构解析——以广州白云山为例

本文以广州白云山作为研究对象,在前期采用"游客使用图片"(VEP)方法的基础上,构建了旅游地的地方依恋结构模型。基于1947份问卷数据,运用结构方程模型的验证性因素分析方法对旅游地地方依恋的结构进行检验,分析结果显示了旅游地的地方依恋结构与数据拟合良好,修正后的旅游地的地方依恋结构更加清晰、信度与效度更加理想,同时验证了地方依恋的二阶因子结构,即旅游地地方依恋的结构由环境景观维度、休闲维度、人际社交维度和设施服务维度4个维度及16个具体特质指标构成。     

国外旅游者行为研究述评

本文以三大国际旅游权威期刊为基本检索对象,对国外学者在旅游者行为方面的研究内容进行了较全面的梳理。文章从回顾研究历程入手,以时间为基本线索对研究内容进行了分类和评价,认为基于旅游者行为的影响因素研究、基于旅游者行为产生的影响研究和基于旅游者行为的专题研究是国外对旅游者行为研究的主要内容,基于定量分析的实证研究和旅游者行为的专题化研究是目前国外旅游者行为研究的主要特征和基本趋势。     

A Tale of Two Cities: A Decomposition of Recent Fertility Changes in Shanghai and Hong Kong

In the past 20 years, Hong Kong and Shanghai's total fertility rates (TFR) have undergone drastic changes: first declining and then rebounding. We use a decomposition method to assess changes in the TFRs of these two cities during the period 1990–2010. During the period of decline from 1990 to 2000, the decrease in marital fertility rate (MFR) was the major cause behind Shanghai's TFR decline; the decrease in nuptiality and MFR were equally responsible for the decline in Hong Kong's TFR. During the 2000–2010 period, although the decline in nuptiality exerted downward pressure on TFR, both cities experienced an increase in TFR mainly due to an increase in the MFR. Analysis of the difference in TFR between the two cities in 2010/2011, also reveals that Hong Kong's marriage delay has a negative impact on fertility and it is the higher MFR that leads to a higher TFR than Shanghai's TFR. It also shows that a reduction of first- and second-order births is equally responsible for Shanghai's lower MFR. Despite the one-child policy in Shanghai, some couples continue to postpone their first births, while others have even chosen to be childfree (a preferred term to ‘childless’). The tempo distortion is diminishing more prominently in Hong Kong, while the decline in fertility aspiration adds much uncertainty to future fertility trends in Shanghai.