The ripple effects of large-scale transport infrastructure investment

We analyze the general equilibrium effects of an asymmetric decrease in transport costs, combining a large-scale spatial dynamic general equilibrium model for 267 European NUTS-2 regions with a detailed transport model at the level of individual road segments. As a case study, we consider the impact of the road infrastructure investments in Central and Eastern Europe of the European Cohesion Policy. Our analysis suggests that the decrease in transportation costs benefits the targeted regions via substantial increases in gross domestic product (GDP) and welfare compared to the baseline, and a small increase in population. The geographic information embedded in the transport model leads to relatively large predicted benefits in peripheral countries such as Greece and Finland, which hardly receive funds, but whose trade links cross Central and Eastern Europe, generating profit from the investments there. The richer, Western European nontargeted regions also enjoy a higher GDP after the investment in the East, but these effects are smaller. Thus, the policy reduces interregional disparities. There are rippled patterns in the predicted policy spillovers. In nontargeted countries, regions trading more intensely with regions where the investment is taking place on average benefit more compared to other regions within the same country, but also compared to neighboring regions across an international border. We uncover that regions importing goods from Central and Eastern Europe enjoy the largest spillovers. These regions become more competitive and expand exports, to the detriment of other regions in the same country.     

Political institutions,punctuated equilibrium theory,and policy disasters

This paper develops a theory of the relationship between policy disasters and political institutions. Policy disasters, defined as avoidable, unintended extreme negative policy outcomes, are important political, and historical events above that receive relatively little attention from political scientists and scholars of public policy. Using the predictions of punctuated equilibrium theory, I argue that systems with higher error accumulation will experience more policy disasters. Systems with more veto players and weaker information flows will experience more policy disasters, but information flows will have a stronger impact than veto players. I test this theory using data on financial crises and natural and technological disasters across 70 countries over 60 years. I find strong evidence that systems with weaker information flows and more veto players tend to have greater policy disaster risk.     

试论人类身高的地域差异规律及其成因

人类身高高纬高于低纬,牧区高于农区、沿海高于内地、低海拔高于高海拔、城市高于农村、发达国家高于发展中国家。其主要原因是气温的高低、光照的多少和营养的差异。     

The Chemical Composition and Production Area of Early Western Zhou Proto‐Porcelain Unearthed from Yejiashan Cemetery,Suizhou, China

The bodies and glazes of 27 early Western Zhou proto‐porcelain samples from Yejiashan cemetery, Hubei Province, were analysed using LA‐ICP–AES, SEM, XRD, a thermal expansion instrument and other analytical methods. The results indicated that the bodies of all samples were characterized by high silicon and low aluminium, and were made with porcelain stone raw materials found in the south of China. The glazes are typical of high‐temperature calcium glazes of the CaO (MgO) – K₂O (Na₂O) – Al₂O₃ – SiO₂ series, with relatively high Mn and P content, which was probably caused by the addition of plant ashes. The physical properties and phase compositions of Yejiashan proto‐porcelain show that firing processes were still in the early stages of development in ancient China. Multivariate statistical analyses indicated that Yejiashan proto‐porcelain might have come from the Deqing area, in Zhejiang Province. These results provide new archaeological evidence for research on issues related to material flow in the Western Zhou dynasty.     

Playing Politics with Sex Offender Laws: An Event History Analysis of the Initial Community Notification Laws across American States

Despite a decline in crime rates, the 1990s witnessed extensive media coverage of several high‐profile stranger abductions and murders of children. State legislators' swift response to the public's growing fear of sex offenders with the adoption of sex offender registration and notification (SORN) laws raises questions about the role of politics. Punctuated equilibrium theory and the diffusion of innovation jointly provide a context to conduct an event history analysis to assess the extent to which politics enhanced legislative responsiveness to public opinion in SORN policymaking. Contrary to the commonly held belief that attributes legislative interest in SORN to salient crimes against children, the results suggest that factors such as the percentage of a conservative population, district‐level competition, and state innovativeness accelerated the diffusion of innovation of the laws.     

基于磁化率测量平遥古城古砖的烧制温度

古砖的烧制温度决定了其物理力学性质。本研究提出基于磁化率来确定古砖烧制温度的方法。通过对古砖重新加温,测量不同温度下古砖的磁化率,得到磁化率差值的平方-温度曲线图。图中第一个较大的偏差对应的横坐标即为古砖的烧制温度。利用上述方法测得实际烧制温度为700℃、800℃和900℃的黏土砖的烧制温度分别为690℃、810℃和870℃。二者误差较小,认为利用该方法确定砖的烧制温度可行。本研究利用该方法确定了平遥古城10块古砖的烧制温度,发现其烧制温度在650～690℃和850～870℃两个区间范围内。据此推测平遥古城古砖是以秸秆和木柴为燃料烧制而成。本研究实验结果可为古建筑修复和保护提供理论参考。     

利用激光拉曼对宋代官窑青瓷样品釉烧温度的研究

本文利用激光拉曼光谱仪和能量色散X-射线荧光光谱仪对21件取自故宫博物院院藏宋代官窑完整器及42件取自杭州老虎洞官窑窑址的青瓷样品表面釉层进行了测量与分析。通过计算瓷釉样品拉曼光谱中位于500cm-1附近宽带与位于1000cm-1附近宽带的面积比值(Ip值)及利用EDXRF分析样品的元素成分,讨论了这些样品的主要助熔剂成分Ca O、K2O含量与Ip值之间的关系,并通过对成分具有两类典型官窑瓷器釉料特征且在不同烧成温度下烧制的模拟釉块进行拉曼分析,对宋官窑青瓷样品的釉烧温度进行了讨论。     

Culture and Legal Policy Punctuation in the Supreme Court's Gender Discrimination Cases

For the most part, punctuated equilibrium scholarship has ignored the legal policy change generated by the Supreme Court. In this study, I address this gap though an examination of the Court's equal protection and gender cases from the 1970s. My case study here has two aims. First, I offer an adaptation of the jurisprudential regimes framework as a device for framing and identifying legal policy punctuations. After identifying Reed v. Reed (1971) as the cut point of such a regime, I then use Reed and its progeny to illustrate the promise of culture in explaining stasis and change, specifically focusing on the concepts of cultural cognition and cultural surprise.     

Seasonal weather sensitivity,temperature thresholds,and climate change impacts for park visitation

Historical park visitation and weather data, taken at the daily time scale from 2000 to 2009 for Pinery Provincial Park in southern Ontario (Canada), were analysed as an objective measure of the weather sensitivity, temperature thresholds, and potential impacts of projected climate change for park visitation. Three seasonal weather-visitation models were constructed using multivariable linear regression (peak, shoulder, off-season). To account for both natural and institutional seasonality, the weather-visitation models included both climatic (temperature, precipitation) and social (weekends, holidays) variables, which demonstrated equably comparable effects on visitation across the three models. Critical temperature thresholds were identified for each season using one-way analysis of variance to determine the range of temperatures within which the threshold was evident; the specific degree of temperature associated with the threshold was identified within the seasonal regression models. Temperatures over 33 °C during the peak season and over 29 °C during the shoulder season indicated critical thresholds at which point conditions that were ‘too hot’ for some caused a decline in visitation. Furthermore, temperatures below 11 °C indicated another critical threshold, where conditions were ‘too cold’ for most and therefore park visitation was less sensitive to temperature variability below this threshold. A partial sensitivity analysis for the impact of a warmer, wetter climate on park visitation was conducted, illustrating the effect of a 1 °C to 5 °C warming in maximum temperatures, coupled with a 5% to 15% increase in total precipitation. In response to projected climate change, the weather-visitation models suggested that for each additional degree of warming experienced, despite the negative effects of increasing precipitation and more frequent heat extremes, annual park visitation could increase by 3.1%, annually. The projected increase in park visitation as a result of rising temperatures was mainly associated with shoulder season visitation, with only minor increases in peak season visitation.     

River meander behaviour and instability: a framework for analysis

Recent empirical and theoretical work on river meanders suggests that instability is inherent. Within this context, an occurrence of multiple cut-offs could be interpreted as a clustering associated with self-organized criticality. Types of meander behaviour ranging from stable to chaotic are examined as trajectories or attractors within the phase space of rate of meander movement and bend curvature and change to the system is explored as shift from one attractor to another. It is suggested that this new approach provides insights into meander dynamics and provides a basis to identify the conditions, limits and constraints under which different behaviour occurs. Basic controls of energy and resistance underlie planform behaviour, but need to be refined in relation to the morphology and stability of channel courses.