Winners and losers. Turnout,results and the flows of vote

Not all general elections can be considered as being equal: some are placed in continuity with the previous political phase and therefore do not change the most relevant features of the party and political system; others, however, tend to represent a watershed between distinct political phases. Without a doubt, the 4 March 2018 Italian general elections belong to the latter category. This article analyses those same elections from three points of view: firstly, it reconstructs and explains electoral turnout, both following a long-term diachronic perspective, as well as comparing the various areas of the country from a territorial point of view. Secondly, similar diachronic and territorial comparisons are conducted with respect to electoral results, so as to clearly identify winners and losers of the 4 of March. Finally, it presents flows of votes in thirty-eight different territorial contexts (cities or electoral constituencies): in this way, it is possible to precisely reconstruct the reasons behind the ‘electoral earthquake’ of 4 March 2018.     

Introduction: not a normal election: roots and consequences

The March 2018 Italian general elections can be described as a historic turning point, another watershed moment in the turbulent history of contemporary Italian politics. After a stormy and complex legislative term, characterized by a variety of institutional and political phenomena, Italy has faced one of the most important electoral challenges since the return of democracy in the mid-1940s. After examining the major political events that led to the latest general elections, this introductory article presents and analyses the rules, the actors and the outcomes of the electoral contest that has seen the victory of two anti-establishment parties: the Five Star Movement and the League. In the concluding section, the article discusses the potential tensions that may emerge from the clash between the populist attitude of the new governing parties and the constitutional constraints of a liberal democratic regime.     

‘With All My Oldest and Native Friends’. Joseph Parkes: Warwickshire Solicitor and Electoral Agent in the Age of Reform1

Joseph Parkes, Birmingham solicitor, electoral agent, whig party advisor and secretary to the Parliamentary Municipal Corporation Commission was a modern master of exposing corrupt and fraudulent electioneering and using it as a catalyst for the election of reform and Liberal politicians immediately following the 1832 Reform Act. Warwickshire's own political and legal history was the foundation for Parkes's understanding of how politics worked in Britain and what was wrong with it, and helped forge his vision for an effective reform in parliamentary and local government. This essay examines Joseph Parkes's understanding of national electoral politics, informed by his work in Warwickshire. As a local solicitor, Parkes gained the wisdom of controlling electoral registration, canvassing in a routine and orderly manner and establishing a network of professionals to secure that registrations turned into votes at elections. This experience would culminate in the formation of the Reform Club, a national organisation of whigs, Liberals and radicals, that would, eventually, become the base of the Liberal Party in modern British politics. In short, Joseph Parkes was a man who could not, and did not wish to, escape where he came from, at least in terms of his political education. His Warwickshire experiences and lessons learned, solidified a series of political reform goals that he pragmatically approached as a political advisor, operative and attorney, rather than an elected public servant, and marked the direction of politics for the rest of the century.     

A Pocket Borough? Reformed Politics in Ripon, 1832–67

This article examines the political history of the parliamentary borough of Ripon between the Great Reform Act of 1832 and the Second Reform Act of 1867. It challenges the notion that Ripon remained a ‘pocket borough’ during this era; rather, the Reform Act rendered Ripon's politics much more open, vibrant and participatory than they had been during the ‘unreformed’ era. In demonstrating this, the article calls into question the alleged prevalence of ‘pocket boroughs’ in the reformed era.     

How Electoral Systems Can Influence Policy Innovation

This paper argues that in certain areas of policy, electoral systems can influence policy innovation (how early countries will adopt certain policies). Electoral systems influence the number of parties that win representation and thereby influence the diversity of perspectives included in the policymaking process. It is argued here that this diversity facilitates elite and public consideration of new issues and ideas, and consequently, it leads to earlier debate and action on these issues and ideas. This dynamic is particularly relevant to controversial issues and ideas that major parties may be hesitant to address and that minor parties may be more incentivized to promote. In this paper, two issues/ideas are considered: extending rights to same‐sex couples and making material sacrifices to protect the environment. I show that countries with more proportional electoral systems tend to act earlier to protect the environment and that they tend to be early adopters of civil union legislation. These results are also supported by World Values Survey data showing public preference patterns that support these policy outcomes.     

Electoral salience and the costs of voting at national, sub-national and supra-national elections in the UK: a case study of Brent, UK

This paper considers the impact of distance to polling station upon electoral turnout. Using polling station level data from a London borough, it examines three types of election – parliamentary, European and local elections – over a twenty year period. The UK is notable among western liberal democracies for its relatively large turnout gap – the percentage point difference between turnout at elections for the Westminster parliament compared to that for other institutions, including local councils and the supra-national European parliament. This research considers the hypothesis that in high information, high salience elections for the national parliament the costs of voting associated with travelling to a polling station to vote in person are perceived as either low or insignificant but that in low information, low salience elections, those costs are perceived as higher and may act as a deterrent upon voting. A series of multi-level models consider the relationships between the dependent variable, percentage turnout, and a range of independent variables, including socio-economic characteristics, marginality as well as the spatial context. We show that there is indeed a relationship between distance and voter turnout, and other spatial and contextual variables, which are stronger for the lower salience European and local elections than for the higher salience national elections. Hence we conclude that the local geography of the polling station can have a significant impact on voter turnout and that there should be a more strategic approach to the siting of polling stations.     

An Analysis of Provincial,Urban and Ethnic Loyalties in Fiji's 2014 Election

ABSTRACT

For the eight years prior to the September 2014 election in Fiji, no data were available that could enable observers to gauge the extent of support for the Bainimarama government. During that period, a range of conflicting claims emerged about shifting political loyalties within Fiji, largely based on anecdotal evidence. This paper makes use of the micro-level September 2014 election results to enquire about rural/urban, ethnic, class and provincial bases of support for the major parties. It finds that backing for the main opposition party was concentrated in areas with small populations, high levels of out-migration and relatively low voter turnout. Conversely support for the incumbent government was strongest on the more densely populated main island of Viti Levu, particularly in the fastest growing western part of that island.     

The Limits of Compulsion: Demographic Influences on Voter Turnout in Australian State Elections

It is often assumed that the problem of electoral participation in Australia has been solved with an entrenched regime of compulsion in enrolment and voting. In recent elections, however, one-fifth of eligible Australians failed to cast a valid vote. This study aims to identify those demographic groups which contribute to this substantial rate of abstention. The authors used Random Forests to model the effects of demographic factors on voter turnout in three Australian state general elections. Results suggest that resource barriers have been generally surmounted, but lower levels of population stability and interaction contribute to a decline in electoral participation. These findings have implications for electoral administration, urban form and compulsion itself.

人们经常说,澳大利益选举参与度的问题已经通过强制性投票解决了。不过在近年的选举中,有五分之一的适龄澳大利亚人没有进行有效投票。本文意在探讨哪些人群造成了如此大比例的弃权。作者使用“随机森林”分析了人口因素对三个州普选结果的影响。结果表明,资源障碍一般说是消除了,但较低的人口稳定与互动水平导致了人们对选举的消极态度。这个发现对于选举的管理、城市的形态以及强制本身都有着参考价值。     

Economic policy and development in Austrian Lombardy, 1815-1859

The question of economic integration is not new in Europe. Historically, the birth and construction of nation-states was important in stimulating interest in the systematic relationships between political and economic integration. In the case of the multinational structure of the Habsburg monarchy in the nineteenth century, the result was an economic policy that, for political reasons, aimed to unite the material interests of a state that was completely heterogeneous in other respects. Lombardy was a case in point. Traditionally the region had been in the economic vanguard in central Europe. When it again became part of Austria in 1815 it also became subject to the imperial policy of political integration. As a result its economic priorities were partially reformulated. On the one hand, Austria had a protectionist system aimed at autarky which made incentives to industrial production a priority. Lombardy's purely mercantilist outlook, on the other hand, was based around the production of a few highly specialized goods, most notably silk, for export. Conflict between economic interests in Lombardy was the inevitable result. Nevertheless, the imperial government had to take account of the fact that it was impossible to restrict Lombardy's international trade relations exclusively to the Austrian market. And the problems that beset any effort to tie the Lombard economy into a denser network of relationships with the Austrian market were not due to the political formation of the Italian nation because Northern Italy, and Lombardy in particular, continued to occupy an anomalous position within the context of the Italian economy.