我国沿海港口港城关系协同发展与驱动机制研究

近年来,随着我国港口资源整合、港区功能调整和港口城市的转型升级,沿海港口与所在城市的关系发展面临新的变化和挑战。本文以我国沿海港口为例,结合定量分析与定性讨论,聚焦我国沿海港口港城关系问题,剖析港城关系的演变及驱动机制。研究发现：我国大部分沿海港口已进入极度协调发展阶段,但发展趋势逐渐放缓,区域分化特征显著,港城协同度差距呈现再扩大的发展趋势。在研究期间,我国城市驱动型港口城市数量显著增加,港口驱动型和港城互驱型港口城市数量减少。建议通过政府政策引导、港产城融合发展和港口转型升级等方式,不断提升我国沿海地区港城关系整体协调发展水平,为新时期我国沿海港口与所在城市的高质量发展提供重要支撑。     

Decentring international and institutional famine relief in late nineteenth-century China: in search of the local

This article uses rural gazetteer biographies to examine village and household-level famine relief during the great North China Famine of 1876–9 to deepen our understanding of past relief methods and dynamics at the most local level. Despite the appearance of major works recently on famine in modern China, particularly on the Great Leap Forward, knowledge of Chinese famine relief remains thin and scattered considering the enormity of the subject. Nineteenth-century China saw intensifying international relief activity as well as the emergence of a vibrant charity-relief sector based in China's major cities, leading to the rise of prominent relief institutions in the twentieth century, such as the Chinese Red Cross. But the increasingly intense disasters of China's modern period also saw a surprising persistence of local humanitarian traditions still barely covered by historians.     

The re-emergence of wardship: Aboriginal Australians and the promise of citizenship

In this paper, I suggest that the category of ‘ward,’ a designation used for Aboriginal Australians in the 1950s and 1960s, has re-emerged in contemporary Northern Territory (NT) life. Wardship represents an in-between status, neither citizens nor non-citizens, but rather an anticipatory citizenship formation constructed by the Australian state. The ward is a not-yet citizen, and the deeds, acts, and discourses that define the ward's capacities to act as a political subject can maintain their anticipatory nature even as people ‘achieve’ formal citizenship. Wardship can be layered on top of citizen and non-citizen status alike. Rather than accounting for the grey areas between ‘citizen’ and ‘non-citizen,’ therefore, wards exist beyond this theoretical continuum, demanding a more nuanced accounting of political subjectivities and people's relationships to the state.I trace the emergence of the category ‘ward’ in the 1950s and 1960s in Australia and its re-emergence for Aboriginal Australians impacted by the 2007 Northern Territory Emergency Response legislation. The promise of citizenship offered by the status of ‘ward’ is built upon expectations about family life, economic activity, and appropriate behaviour. These assumptions underscore an implicit bargain between individuals and the state, that neoliberalised self-discipline will lead to both formal citizenship rights and a sense of belonging. Built-in impediments, however, ensure that this bargain is difficult, if not impossible, to fulfil.     

The Mediation and Remediation of Disaster: Hurricanes Katrina and Felix in/and the New Media Environment

Hurricanes Katrina and Felix made landfall in 2005 and 2007 on the Gulf Coast of the US and the Atlantic Coast of Nicaragua respectively. Despite many economic, political and cultural differences between these two sites, they share a number of interesting similarities. Their inhabitants are subject to similar modes of racialized Othering and internal colonialism, and both places have vital links with the transnational cultural consciousness that Gilroy referred to as the Black Atlantic. Katrina and Felix also occurred at a time when centralized forms of media are increasingly perceived to be in crisis. This crisis is creating new spaces for the development of alternative ways of knowing, watching and making media. This paper draws on recent literature on decolonization by Mignolo, Escobar, Quijano and others to explore the prospects for decolonizing energies within the new media environment and a context of devastation wrought by neoliberalism and disaster. This research examines disasters in/and the new media environment, and suggests that activists should understand the distinctions between mainstream (or corporate) and alternative media, between top‐down and grassroots media, and between “old” and “new” media, in relational and non‐categorical rather than absolute terms. These media realms should be engaged from an awareness of how they interact with and impact upon one another. This research also suggests that disasters must be understood as ongoing and open‐ended events embedded within historical, social, cultural, economic and political processes and systems. Media, policymaking and emergency management practices that are informed by an awareness of this complex embedding, and which are therefore able to take a long‐term view of the unfolding of disasters, will be best equipped to engage effectively, and in democratically responsive ways, with disasters and in particular with the needs of those populations most vulnerable to their impacts.     

Holocene climatic change and past Irish societal response

The extent to which North Atlantic Holocene climatic perturbations influenced past human societies is an area of considerable uncertainty and fierce debate. Ireland is ideally placed to help resolve this issue, being occupied for over 9000 yr and located on the eastern Atlantic seaboard, a region dominated by westerly airflow. Irish bog and lake tree populations provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in surface moisture through the Holocene similar to cycles recorded in the marine realm of the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. To test for human response to these cycles we summed the probabilities of 465 radiocarbon ages obtained from Irish archaeological contexts and observe enhanced archaeological visibility during periods of sustained wet conditions. These results suggest either increasing density of human populations in key, often defensive locations, and/or the development of subsistence strategies to overcome changing conditions, the latter recently proposed as a significant factor in avoiding societal collapse. Regardless, we demonstrate environmental change is a significantly more important factor in influencing human activity in the landscape than has hitherto been acknowledged.     

从灾害经济学角度对“三年自然灾害”时期的考察

1959～1961年我国经历了“三年经济困难”时期。关于其主要成因,1978年前一直错误地完全归咎于三年自然灾害。但近年来国内外又发表了一系列文章,认为这三年“风调雨顺”,根本没有自然灾害,“人祸”即决策错误是唯一的原因。本文根据对灾情、受灾面积等资料图表的分析,证实这三年发生了持续的严重自然灾害;同时分析了各种决策错误带来的不同影响,重点把粮食作为决定国家经济兴衰的生命线和因果关系链的比较指数,用计量方法分析当时农村因灾减产、因决策错误减产、因高征购而减少粮食存量之间的比例状况。本文的结论是:从农业粮食减产因素看,自然灾害略大于决策错误;从农村一个时期的集中缺粮情况因素看,决策错误影响远大于自然灾害,可以说是“三分天灾,七分人祸”。     

博物馆文物的防震保护研究（二）——设防地震动输入及结构地震动反应

通过对上海及邻近地区地震危害性分析,结合地震研究工作结果,根据上海博物馆文物防震保护的具体要求,研究确定了该博物馆文物防震保护的设防水准及地震动参数。场地地震动输入峰值加速度水准确定为50年超越概率3％,地震动反应谱采用上海市标准《建筑抗震设计规范》(DGJ08-9-92)中给出的地震影响系数曲线(阻尼比0.05),并将输入峰值加速度调整为180gal。研究采用了目前通用的拟合反应谱的方法,通过拟合选定的地震动反应标准谱,合成了6条人造地震波时程曲线,拟合精度控制在相对误差不大于5％;同时结合上海市《建筑抗震设计规范》(DGJ08-9-92)中所附的一条强震记录,共同作为上海博物馆结构地震反应分析的输入地震动。又根据上海博物馆建筑的结构特征分析,结合建筑结沟动力特征的实测结果,通过采用层模型结构时程分析计算方法,计算并获得了在遭遇设防地震时,上海博物馆建筑物每一层的地震动反应,表明上海博物馆建筑各楼层的地震动反应具有明显的楼层放大作用。对各楼层地震动反应的统计分析,给出了上海博物馆建筑物每一层的地震动参数,以此可作为今后文物地震危害性分析,及研究设计隔震装置等防震措施的依据。     

Simple Seismic Assessment of Traditional Unreinforced Masonry Buildings

A framework for quick seismic assessment and retrofit of traditional unreinforced masonry (URM) structures is presented. The proposed methods build on simple principles of structural dynamics and are used as an alternative to detailed time-history analysis, in recognition of the prevailing need for simple and practical methods, compatible with the low-budget and the limited level of knowledge regarding materials, internal force paths, connectivity and condition of older URM structures. An objective is to identify areas in the building that are particularly susceptible to damage and for guiding the types of the required global interventions to improve seismic response. Demand and supply are expressed in terms of relative drift ratios that quantify the intensity of out-of-plane differential translation and in-plane shear distortion of masonry walls. A characteristic traditional building type of timber-laced masonry is used as a model structure for illustration of concepts. The morphology and geometry of the building correspond to a statistical sample of the actual traditional unreinforced masonry buildings (TURM) found in historical centers of many towns in the greater region of Northern Greece. The methodology is particularly useful for setting retrofit priorities and management of the collective seismic risk of historical entities.