乡村振兴导向下乡村发展能力的多维测度及时空交互特征

乡村振兴要求走乡村内生性发展道路,客观认知乡村发展能力的时空分异格局和交互关系对乡村振兴战略实施具有重要意义。本文从农业产业发展、农村基础建设和农民社会生活三个维度构建测度指标体系,并引入面板向量自回归模型识别影响乡村发展能力的敏感因素,以此测度乡村发展能力指数,进而采用探索性时空数据分析方法揭示乡村发展能力的时空交互特征。结果表明：(1)我国中部地区多维乡村发展能力提升,但呈明显的空间异质性,不同维度间差异化显著;(2)中部地区多维乡村发展能力局域空间格局呈现较强的动态性并整体表现出较强的空间依赖关系;(3)邻接地级市多维乡村发展能力的时空交互网络以正向关联为主,局部空间呈差异化的竞合态势。     

Topic Modeling and Text Analysis for Qualitative Policy Research

This paper contributes to a critical methodological discussion that has direct ramifications for policy studies: how computational methods can be concretely incorporated into existing processes of textual analysis and interpretation without compromising scientific integrity. We focus on the computational method of topic modeling and investigate how it interacts with two larger families of qualitative methods: content and classification methods characterized by interest in words as communication units and discourse and representation methods characterized by interest in the meaning of communicative acts. Based on analysis of recent academic publications that have used topic modeling for textual analysis, our findings show that different mixed‐method research designs are appropriate when combining topic modeling with the two groups of methods. Our main concluding argument is that topic modeling enables scholars to apply policy theories and concepts to much larger sets of data. That said, the use of computational methods requires genuine understanding of these techniques to obtain substantially meaningful results. We encourage policy scholars to reflect carefully on methodological issues, and offer a simple heuristic to help identify and address critical points when designing a study using topic modeling.     

AGGREGATION ERROR EFFECTS ON THE DISCRETE-SPACE p-MEDIAN MODEL: THE CASE OF EDMONTON, CANADA

The spatial analysis literature recognizes three sources of aggregation error, termed Source A, Source B, and Source C, which affect models relying on distance measurements between populations and facilities. We consider these effects with respect to aggregating from census enumeration areas to census tracts, on a popular location model. We identify a further source of aggregation error, which we dub Source D error, arising from the representation of facility sites by discrete points. Source D effects are of the same magnitude as Source A and B combined, much greater than Source C effects. Source D error is further significant, because, unlike Source A and B error, it can be eliminated only by disaggregating .
La littérature sur Vanalyse spatiale reconnaît trois sources d'erreur d'agrégation appelées erreurs de source A, B, et C. Ces erreurs influencent les modèles qui reposent sur des mesures de distance entre des populations et des installations. On considère les effets d'agrégation des secteurs de dénombrement en secteurs de recensement sur un modèle de localisation courant. On identifie une quatrième source d'erreur d'agrégation appelée erreur de source D. Cette erreur découle de la représentation des sites des installations par des points discrets. Ses effets sont du même ordre de grandeur que ceux des sources A et B combinées et beaucoup plus grands que les effets de source G. L'erreur de source D est d'autant plus significative à cause du fait que, contrairement aux erreurs de source A et B, elle ne peut être éliminée que par la désagrégation .     

Innovation across cities

This paper examines the distribution of patenting activity across cities in the OECD, using a sample of 218 cities from 2000 to 2008. We obtain three main results. First, patenting activity is more concentrated than population and GDP. Second, patenting activity is less persistent than population and GDP, especially in the middle of the distribution. Third, in a parametric model, patenting does not exhibit mean‐reversion, and is positively associated with GDP and population density. Our results suggest that policymakers can influence the amount of innovative activity through the use of appropriate policies.     

Territorially unequal rural development: the cases of the LEADER Initiative and the PRODER Programme in Andalusia (Spain)

This paper studies the territorial effects of the LEADER approach in Southern Europe, by analysing the region of Andalusia (Spain). Our research has revealed that, in many cases, projects were concentrated in the most dynamic, most populated areas, with a well-established business network with the financial and organizational capacity required to access European funding. In these areas, the economic leadership of the most dynamic municipalities has been reinforced at the expense of more depressed areas with little social capital and few businesses. These programmes have not, therefore, helped to mitigate territorial imbalances. In a minority of rural areas, however, this trend was not observed, which shows that although territorial inequality is a widespread problem in the practice of neo-endogenous rural development, it does not affect all areas to the same degree.     

基于手机信令数据的长春市活动空间特征与社区分异研究

居民时空行为成为透视城市空间的重要视角,本文基于手机信令数据研究长春市活动空间及其社区分异,轮廓性的揭示居住空间、就业空间和消费休闲空间的分布规律,从人地互动的过程与格局的视角认识城市空间。研究发现,居住活动对中心城区依赖明显高于就业和消费休闲活动,就业活动呈现多中心连片发展格局,近郊的欧亚卖场和郊区的净月潭成为人们消费休闲活动的重要选择。就业-居住距离和消费休闲-居住距离的社区分异显著,折射出三类活动空间关系复杂,由此感知城市生活空间质量和社会空间结构。通过对社区分异的空间聚类分析明晰各地域自身问题,从而有针对性的对长春的空间调整优化和居民行为引导提出建议,构建和谐宜居的城市空间。     

A Bayesian approach to rapid seismic vulnerability assessment at urban scale

The seismic vulnerability of city centers is commonly assessed by extending the study methods applied to single buildings to urban aggregations. This approach is not always applicable at territorial scale, as it is uneconomical in terms of time and costs. An innovative method provides reasonable large-scale a priori estimation of parameters not directly evaluable from the exterior of buildings by elaborating values which can be measured from the outside. Those parameters are treated as continuous variables, by assigning them a suitable probability density function. The Bayesian approach is adopted, which allows the update of initial hypotheses by using new data gathered during on-site surveys. In this regard, a rapid survey form for the on-site data collection is proposed. An example of its application to a façade of a building structural unit in Santo Stefano di Sessanio in L’Aquila province (Italy) is proposed, showing promising preliminary results for buildings belonging to Italian historical centers.     

基于手机信令数据的大型足球赛事球迷当日空间行为特征研究

利用手机信令数据,以2014年3月上海申花与杭州绿城、上海上港对上海申鑫两场足球赛为研究对象,分析和归纳了观赛球迷的分布特征、活动特征,并进一步探索了球迷的行为对于球场周边商业体的影响,以此来分析大型赛事球迷的空间行为特征,希望能够对未来的城市相关设施规划起到一定的指导作用。研究表明,球迷的分布涵盖市域、呈现类圈层结构。球迷的出发时间与球赛开始时间相关,大部分球迷的出行目的较为明确。球迷对于球场周边一定距离范围内的商业体有影响,且商业体距离球场越远,影响越弱。最后,对于手机信令数据在大型活动或特定人群特征分析方面的应用提出了一些讨论思考。     

Testing settlement models in the early Roman colonial landscapes of Venusia (291 B.C.), Cosa (273 B.C.) and Aesernia (263 B.C.)

This paper examines settlement density and settlement patterns in the Roman colonial territories of Venusia, Cosa and Aesernia, located in three different landscapes of central southern Italy (modern Basilicata, Tuscany and Molise). Using a series of GIS tools, we conducted a comparative analysis of the density and spatial distribution of sites dating to the Hellenistic period (ca. 350–50 b.c.). We used the legacy settlement data collected by previous large-scale, intensive, site-oriented field surveys to test the validity of two competing rural settlement models of early Roman colonization: the conventional model of neatly organized settlements regularly dispersed across the landscape and the recently proposed theory that colonists adopted a polynuclear settlement strategy. After calculating the extent to which the archaeological datasets conform to the regular or polynuclear model, we conclude that only a very small portion of the colonized areas actually meets traditional expectations regarding the organization of early colonial settlements. Our analyses show that the legacy survey data is more consistent with the polynuclear settlement theory, but the data also reveals some completely unexpected patterns, suggesting that early Roman colonial landscapes were more diverse than previously thought.     

智慧博物馆的发展路径探析

智慧博物馆是传统实体博物馆发展到一定阶段所产生的一种新的博物馆高级形态,具有主体的人本性、资源的整合性和数据的再生产性等基本特征。与数字博物馆相比,智慧博物馆的"智慧化"主要体现在数据来源的多样性、数据传输的多向性和数据交换的普遍性上。建设智慧博物馆需要警惕走入载体离心化、技术泛滥化、内容娱乐化、数据固态化和建设盲目化的误区,抓住"数据"这一核心要素,围绕数据生成、数据加工、数据运用和数据共享诸环节,科学系统地推进展开。