从灾害经济学角度对“三年自然灾害”时期的考察

1959～1961年我国经历了“三年经济困难”时期。关于其主要成因,1978年前一直错误地完全归咎于三年自然灾害。但近年来国内外又发表了一系列文章,认为这三年“风调雨顺”,根本没有自然灾害,“人祸”即决策错误是唯一的原因。本文根据对灾情、受灾面积等资料图表的分析,证实这三年发生了持续的严重自然灾害;同时分析了各种决策错误带来的不同影响,重点把粮食作为决定国家经济兴衰的生命线和因果关系链的比较指数,用计量方法分析当时农村因灾减产、因决策错误减产、因高征购而减少粮食存量之间的比例状况。本文的结论是:从农业粮食减产因素看,自然灾害略大于决策错误;从农村一个时期的集中缺粮情况因素看,决策错误影响远大于自然灾害,可以说是“三分天灾,七分人祸”。     

Shooting in the Dark: Recovering the Jewish Farmers of an American Zion

Abstract

The authors argue that the publication of any new historical data series requires a formal estimate of its margins of error. We show how overall margins of error may be calculated for the standard forms of historical data series from information on the reliability of its components. The presentation of such margins of error should be transparent, allowing readers both to judge the estimate and to test the implications of applying different standards. An illustration is provided for Hoffmann's industrial output series for Britain, 1780–1831. The calculations emphasize the value of this approach to the recent debate on measuring growth rates during the British Industrial Revolution and suggest its merits more generally.     

《明史·礼志》史实考误

张廷玉《(明史·礼志》是迄今影响最大的专门记载明代礼制的史志文献,但其中也存在诸多史实讹误,这大大影响了其可信度和史料价值.经据《明实录》、《明会典》、《皇明典礼志》、《昭代典则》、《太常续考》、《辛L部志稿》等文献考证,可知该《志》中华书局1974年点校本第47-53卷仍然存在史实讹误21处.其致误之直接原因,大致有脱漏、衍文、字形相近而误等情形;但根本原因还是缘于编纂、刻印和传抄者的疏忽与粗心.     

Cultural transmission, copying errors, and the generation of variation in material culture and the archaeological record

Archaeologists are adept at analyzing variation in artifacts. The discipline has well established and tested methods to track change through time and to evaluate the function of artifacts that depend upon measures of variation in the archaeological record. Although a critical concept, the means by which variation in material culture is generated is not well understood. This paper explores one source of variation, copying errors, and systematically examines how cultural transmission processes act to amplify, reduce, or maintain such variation. Using simple models, we generate expected distributions for the amount of variation that occurs through time under varying circumstances. This variation is caused by small errors that are transmitted from one person to another in the propagation and replication of cultural traits. These baseline values provide useful null models for explaining variation in prehistoric assemblages of artifacts. We use measurements of projectile points from Owens Valley and Woodland ceramics from Illinois to demonstrate the value of this approach.     

Lost in the Mail: the Inherent Errors of Mapping Australia Post Postcodes to ABS Derived Postal Areas

It is now common practice, by users of geographic information, to link data held at the postcode level to that obtained from the national census. This paper examines the relationship between Australia Post (AP) postcodes and Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) derived postal areas — which are an approximation of the former based on aggregated census collection districts (CDs). A group of adjacent ABS postal areas in northwest Melbourne was compared with the true AP postcode areas they purported to represent and the discrepancies were investigated. Firstly, shape mismatches were studied and their potential impacts upon resource allocation decisions were assessed. Next, comparisons of areas were undertaken. It was found that, in established inner city urban areas, the two sets of boundaries were highly correlated. However, outer suburban neighborhoods were identified as being particularly prone to major areal discrepancies. The implications of mismatches between these two key boundary data sources may be severe, given that management decisions and the allocation of public and private resources are often based on spatial statistical analyses which use these data sets. The authors acknowledge ABS efforts in providing information at the levels of aggregation that society demands. The introduction of ABS postal areas data has undoubtedly facilitated the use of demographic data in many sectors; it has, however, also caused some problems, for instance, when users assume that ABS postal areas are identical to AP postcodes. These issues could easily be avoided with the inclusion of more comprehensive metadata documentation accompanying ABS data. Research is continuing to develop a method by which agencies may derive common boundaries for their administrative units, yet still meet their own individual data and sampling requirements.     

《谢榛全集》辨误

本指出《谢榛全集》主要讹误：《前言》8处,序跋之编辑及字体辨识、断句36处,正校、勘、标点105处,附录校勘、标点21处、误作佚诗重收24首、佚诗而漏收7首,佚校勘不审4则,其它问题4条。同时,也对自己的失误予以检讨、自纠。正人且正已,其意在有裨于端正学风,促进谢榛及明“后七子”的整理和研究。     

《旧唐书·经籍志》著录书名考误

《旧唐书·经籍志》因无善本传世 ,今人亦未及作专门的整理 ,故通行本文字讹脱颇多。本文从新、旧二志的同源关系出发 ,主要采用二志比勘的方法 ,同时参考《隋志》等书目著录、史传记载、古书称引等 ,对《旧志》著录的书名讹误进行考辨 ,凡二十二条。     

《史记》校点本讹误辨正

中华书局校点本《史记》是人们学习和开展《史记》研究工作最常用的本,但也不无可商之处。本就校点本底本之讹衍脱倒、漏校及误校、标点不当等疑误之处,在前人和旧作的基础上再检出30余条,进行辨正,供读参考。     

《金楼子·兴王》校读札记

萧绎《金楼子》因流传散佚,虽经前人校补订正,众版本参照比勘时仍存在讹误。本文就《金楼子·兴王》的一些错讹举例定误,以希对《金楼子》研究有所裨益。     

A comparison of the treatment of errors in radiocarbon dating calibration methods

The application of radiocarbon dating to archaeological samples generally requires calibration of ¹⁴C dates to calendar ages and interpretation of dating errors. In this paper, four recent methods of age calibration are assessed, particularly with regard to their quality of error treatment. Recent experimental research has suggested that commonly quoted errors on “raw” ¹⁴C dates may require enlargement to more realistic levels, which, when incorporated in the calibration schemes, produce a considerable increase in the size of the typical calibrated interval. A general decrease in the sensitivity of ¹⁴C dating using single, “normal precision” dates is implied. Thus typical calibrated age intervals range from 300 to 1300 years (approximate 95% confidence level), with little improvement resulting if “high precision” calibration systems are used to correct “normal precision” dates. Of the four methods considered here, that proposed by Neftel is found to provide the most objective, flexible, comprehensive and “easy to use” scheme. This method is particularly recommended for its treatment of errors both on the dates to be calibrated and on the calibration curve itself.