The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on the Mechanism of Economic Growth in Russia

A noted specialist on the Russian economy presents an assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis on the mechanism of the country's economic growth. Focusing on the demand side of the economic ledger, the author explores the question of whether Russia will be able to re-attain the high economic growth rates of the period from 2000 to 2007 after recovering from the crisis. The paper analyzes the sharp drop in production in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, attributing most of the damage to liquidity problems and declines in the price of oil. Empirical evidence is based primarily on data collected by the author from the Central Bank of Russia and the country's federal bureau of statistics (Rosstat). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E010, E200, E660, F210, G010. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.     

高校旅游毕业生就业统计范围问题研究

由于观念与技术等问题,我国现行的高校旅游就业统计范围,在专业和行业界定上存在着明显不足,以致人们对于旅游学科在教育体系中的地位以及旅游教育的投入与产出的认识出现严重误解。科学运用旅游卫星账户,参考相关旅游增加值,正确统计高校的旅游就业范围,符合国民经济就业统计的实际需要,也有利于端正人们对旅游就业范围的客观认识。     

清代前期账局、放账铺研究--以五种账局、放账铺清单的解读为中心

清代前期不但有资本规模较大,主要针对商号及官员放贷的大账局,也有资本规模较小,可能针对小商人、小手工业者甚至地主农民放贷的放账铺。至少从乾隆年间开始,账局、放账铺已经比较普遍地运用合伙制的方式筹措资本。账局的重要业务之一就是对官员放京债,这种放贷利率高、数额大,但风险也甚高。与此同时,账局也开始大规模地对商号商人放贷,每家较大型的账局至少可能对三十至五十家以上的商号放贷,放贷数额常到一千两以上,最少也有一百两。这种放贷,直至道光年间还很兴盛。账局、放账铺已经具有了商业银行的功能,但是否够得上商业银行,还须进一步探讨。     

从口述史到文本传记——以“曹刿—曹沫”为考察对象

有关先秦历史人物的史事记载在流传过程中,往往经历着史官记载——口述史——史官再记载的过程。在这一过程中,其人会因音近而出现异名,其事可能会有所增益或失真。纠缠不已的"曹刿—曹沫"的相关问题可以作为典型例证。上博简第四册《曹沫之陈》篇,曹刿、曹沫的本字""或"蔑"的出现,再次印证了先秦时期人物史事流传与演变的这一特点。这对于认识先秦史学的发展有一定的启发意义。     

Exchange Rate Policy and the Central and East European Financial Crisis

A prominent specialist on economic developments in the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries examines the ways in which the global financial crisis of 2008-2010 has impacted the economies of the 10 new eastern member states of the European Union (CEE-10). The author assesses the multiple preconditions of the crisis (e.g., excessive current account deficits, large foreign debt, inadequate currency reserves, immense credit expansion, rising inflation and real estate prices) as well as the rapid financial adjustments that had to be undertaken to overcome it (e.g., current account rebalancing, reducing budget deficits, pension and fiscal reform). He devotes considerable attention to the key issue of how the differences in exchange rate policies in these countries affected their abilities to respond to the crisis and outlines measures that should be implemented to enhance the crisis management capability of non-eurozone states relying on currency boards or floating exchange rates.     

Exchange Rate Policy and Economic Growth after the Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe

In a paper on the effects of the global financial crisis in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), a European Union economist reacts to a companion paper (Åslund, 2001) published in the same issue of Eurasian Geography and Economics on the influence of exchange rate policies on the region's recovery. The author argues that post-crisis corrections in current account deficits in CEE countries do not in themselves signal a return to steady economic growth. Disagreeing with Åslund over the role of loose monetary policy in fostering the region's economic problems, he outlines a number of competitiveness problems that remain to be addressed in the 10 new EU member states of CEE, along with improvements in framework conditions supporting future macroeconomic growth.     

旅游活动对江苏居民收入的贡献——基于2002年江苏旅游活动细化社会核算矩阵的研究

本研究构建了由38个内生账户、4个外生账户组成的2002年江苏旅游细化SAM。在计算SAM账户居民收入乘数(Mahi)的基础上,本论文分析了旅游业对江苏居民收入的贡献。数据显示,2002年江苏旅游业对居民收入的总贡献是608.48亿元,其中,入境旅游业和国内旅游业对居民收入的贡献分别是62.78亿元和545.69亿元。2002年江苏旅游业对城镇居民收入的总贡献是355.30亿元,对农村居民收入贡献是253.17亿元。从产业上看,餐饮业和住宿业给居民带来的收入最大。     

DISCIPLINE,PHILOSOPHY, AND HISTORY

Gorman proposes to investigate historical practice under the rubric of a philosophy of disciplines. Such philosophy must first “recover historically” the self‐constitution of the discipline in order then to appraise its procedures for warranting claims. Gorman's concept of discipline would have profited from consulting the substantial body of empirical research and theory regarding disciplinarity, and his “historical recovery” of the discipline of history leaves a lot to be desired. These insufficiencies vitiate the interesting arguments he has to offer concerning the question of the truth‐claims of whole historical accounts. A better reconstruction of disciplinarity might also have provided him with stronger rejoinders to the postmodern challenge to historical practice that he sees himself called to rebut.     

旅游产品价格波及影响：方法建构与实证测算

现阶段我国针对旅游产品价格影响范围与程度的规范性研究相对缺乏.本文借助旅游卫星账户编算中的相关产业旅游份额核算方法,通过劈分归并包含“合成”旅游业的投入产出表,通过投入产出价格影响模型,测算了旅游产品价格波动对其他产业价格水平及物价总水平的影响,以及相关产业价格水平变化对旅游产品价格的量化影响,为产业分析与旅游产品价格关系研究提供一个新视角.