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1.
We predict that portions of the New Jersey continental slope were unstable approximately 0.5 million years ago. This instability was caused by rapid sediment loading during a Pleistocene sea‐level lowstand and by flow focusing in underlying, permeable Miocene strata. The simulated instability is consistent with soft‐sediment deformation and small slumps in Pleistocene strata of the Hudson Apron. Stability of the New Jersey margin has increased since 0.3 Ma because sedimentation rate has decreased. Today, the modelled factor of safety (FS) for the upper slope is approximately 1.5 whereas in the lower slope it exceeds 3. We predict that sedimentation rate is a dominant factor on slope stability. When rapid and asymmetric loading of a highly permeable sedimentary layer occurs, the location of instability can shift seaward to regions where sedimentation rates are low. Stability calculations use pressures and effective stresses predicted by a coupled sedimentation‐fluid flow model. This hydrodynamic analysis demonstrates how the interplay of sedimentation and fluid migration affects the distribution, timing, and size of sedimentary failures. 相似文献
2.
J. P. FAIRLEY 《Geofluids》2009,9(2):153-166
Previous studies have shown that most hydrothermal systems discharging at the land surface are associated with faulting, and that the location, temperature and rate of discharge of these systems are controlled by the geometry and style of the controlling fault(s). Unfortunately, the transport of heat and fluid in fault-controlled hydrothermal systems is difficult to model realistically; although heterogeneity and anisotropy are assumed to place important controls on flow in faults, few data or observations are available to constrain the distribution of hydraulic properties within active faults. Here, analytical and numerical models are combined with geostatistical models of spatially varying hydraulic properties to model the flow of heat and fluid in the Borax Lake fault of south-east Oregon, USA. A geometric mean permeability within the fault of 7 × 10−14 m2 with 2× vertical/horizontal anisotropy in correlation length scale is shown to give the closest match to field observations. Furthermore, the simulations demonstrate that continuity of flow paths is an important factor in reproducing the observed behavior. In addition to providing some insight into possible spatial distributions of hydraulic properties at the Borax Lake site, the study highlights one potential avenue for integrating field observations with simulation results in order to gain greater understanding of fluid flow in faults and fault-controlled hydrothermal and petroleum reservoirs. 相似文献
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The generation of computational meshes of complex geological objects is a challenge: their shape needs to be retained, resolution has to adapt to local detail, and variations of material properties in the objects have to be represented. Also mesh refinement and adaptation must be sufficient to resolve variations in the computed variable(s). Here, we present an unstructured hybrid finite element, node‐centred finite‐volume discretization suitable for solving fluid flow, reactive transport, and mechanical partial differential equations on a complex geometry with inhomogeneous material domains. We show that resulting meshes accurately capture free‐form material interfaces as defined by non‐uniform rational B‐spline curves and surfaces. The mesh discretization error is analysed for the elliptic pressure equation and an error metric is introduced to guide mesh refinement. Finite elements and finite volumes are represented in parametric space and integrations are conducted numerically. Subsequently, integral properties are mapped to physical space using Jacobian transformations. This method even retains its validity when the mesh is deformed. The resulting generic formulation is demonstrated for a transport calculation performed on a complex discrete fracture model. 相似文献
5.
基于计量经济学模型的内地赴澳门游客量预测 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
本研究选择中国大陆地区人均可支配收入、消费者物价指数、国内生产总值,以及澳门与大陆之间商品进出口总额、港币与人民币汇率等变量,建立计量经济学模型估计内地赴澳门游客的数量。模型数据来源于澳门、大陆和香港官方公布的历年季度数据。在建立公式化的预测模型之后,本文还对模型的拟合优度和预测精度给予评估,对模型的基本假设进行了检验。本研究成果可作为有关政府部门和企业的决策参考。 相似文献
6.
Pore pressure and fluid flow during the deformational history of geologic structures are directly influenced by tectonic deformation events. In this contribution, 2D plane strain finite element analysis is used to study the influence of different permeability distributions on the pore pressure field and associated flow regimes during the evolution of visco‐elastic single‐layer buckle folds. The buckling‐induced fluid flow regimes indicate that flow directions and, to a lesser degree, their magnitudes vary significantly throughout the deformation and as a function of the stratigraphic permeability distribution. The modelling results suggest that the volumetric strain and the permeability distribution significantly affect the resulting flow regime at different stages of fold development. For homogeneous permeability models (k > 10?21 m2), low strain results in a mostly pervasive fluid flow regime and is in agreement with previous studies. For larger strain conditions, fluid focusing occurs in the buckling layer towards the top of the fold hinge. For low permeabilities (<10?21 m2), local focused flow regimes inside the buckling layer emerge throughout the deformation history. For models featuring a low‐permeability layer embedded in a high‐permeability matrix or sandwiched between high‐permeability layers, focused flow regimes inside the folded layer result throughout the deformation history, but with significant differences in the flow vectors of the surrounding layers. Fluid flow vectors induced by the fold can result in different, even reversed, directions depending on the amount of strain. In summary, fluid flow regimes during single‐layer buckling can change from pervasive to focused and fluid flow vectors can be opposite at different strain levels, that is the flow vectors change significantly through time. Thus, a complete understanding of fluid flow regimes associated with single‐layer buckle folds requires consideration of the complete deformation history of the fold. 相似文献
7.
In the context of ecological emergency and crisis of representation of the capitalist democracy, the battles over water management have become ever more politicised: who is to administer water resources, how, and with what legitimacy? This article examines a disregarded dimension of the recent water conflict in Barcelona by looking into the politics of memory as part of a struggle for legitimacy between the private water company Agbar, and Barcelona en Comú (BeC), the political platform governing the city since 2015, and defending the ‘remunicipalisation’ of water. By combining memory studies and critical discourse analysis we pay attention to the dynamic resignification of the hydraulic infrastructure as spaces or “sites of memory” (lieux de mémoire; Nora, 1998). Barcelona en Comú narrative retrieves a forgotten past of local sites and experiences in public management of water. In contrast, Agbar defends its legitimacy by advancing a narrative of linear progress and social inclusion that re-signifies its 150-year long history and co-opts key “empty signifiers” (Laclau, 2005) from the discourse of the Indignados and BeC. Theoretically, we advance that a temporal turn in political ecology and geography, complementing the concern with spatiality, could usefully draw on memory studies to analyse the growing memorialization of water discourses and sites, as well as their political significance. The article thus investigates a question that has not been systematically explored by political ecologists: how the entanglement of space and historical memory is mobilized in the conflict over the use and management of the environment. 相似文献
8.
Andrew Ugan Gustavo Neme Adolfo Gil Joan Coltrain Robert Tykot Paula Novellino 《Journal of archaeological science》2012
Questions of mobility, settlement pattern, and their relation to economic organization and resource use are central to ongoing work in central-western Argentina. Here we analyze geographic patterns in the distribution of 178 human bone carbonate δ18O samples, 46 human tooth enamel carbonate δ18O samples, and 48 water δ18O samples from throughout the Andean Cordillera and Monte Desert and evaluate their implications for prehistoric mobility and economy. We confirm and refine previous generalizations regarding a highland/lowland dichotomy in water δ18O values and show that the range of human carbonate δ18O values generally reflect available water sources. While there is little within-lifetime change in patterns of water use, we show that most individuals have stable isotope signatures consistent with water use from multiple areas or areas other than where they were ultimately interred. These data indicate high levels of residential mobility, and we conclude by discussing their implications for our understanding of regional prehistory. 相似文献
9.
A variety of data indicate that the Carbonate aquifer in southern Manitoba is a heterogeneous and anisotropic aquifer wherein groundwater flow follows preferred flow path networks. Specific capacity tests show that aquifer transmissivity can vary by up to four orders of magnitude within 1 km. Geostatistical analysis reveals a strong anisotropy in the transmissivity field, with better spatial continuity in NE–SW and NW–SE directions, coincident with the dominant orientations of fractures observed in bedrock exposures. However, discrepancies between the orientation of highest fracture density and best transmissivity continuity suggest that either additional geological factors control the preferred flow network or there is a biased representation of the fracture pattern because all direct fracture observations came from the northern part of the study area. In an effort to investigate whether the geographically biased fracture data set represents the fracture pattern for the whole region, Landsat images and digital elevation maps were processed to extract linear features that may indicate subsurface fracture zones in areas where bedrock is covered by glacial sediments. The results suggest a consistent fracture pattern throughout the study area, indicating that the two observed fracture groups might have gone through different processes in terms of permeability development. Alteration by mineral cementation and dissolution along fracture surfaces may have preferentially improved the fracture permeability in one orientation, while reducing it in the other. The in situ stress field is also believed to play a major role in the preferred regional flow network. This paper discusses the evidence for the preferred flow path network and possible geological factors controlling aquifer anisotropy in this region. 相似文献
10.
The geometry of mineral deposits can give insights into fluid flow in shear zones. Lode gold ore bodies at Renco Mine, in the Limpopo Belt, Zimbabwe, occur as siliceous breccias and mylonites within amphibolite facies shear zones that dip either gently or steeply. The two sets of ore bodies formed synchronously from hydrothermal fluids. The ore bodies are oblate, but have well‐defined long axes. Larger ore bodies are more oblate. High‐grade gold ore shoots have long axes that plunge down dip; this direction is perpendicular to the long axes of the low‐grade ore bodies. The centres of the high‐grade ore bodies align within the low‐grade ore bodies along strike in both gently and steeply dipping groups. The range of sizes and shapes of the ore bodies are interpreted as a growth sequence. Geometrical models are proposed for the gently and steeply dipping ore bodies, in which individual ore bodies grow with long axes plunging down dip, and merge to form larger, more oblate ore bodies. The models show that when three or more ore bodies coalesce, the long axis of the merged ore body is perpendicular to the component ore bodies, and that ore bodies in the deposit may have a range of shapes due to both growth of individual ore bodies, and their coalescence. The long axes of the high‐grade ore bodies are parallel to the shear directions of both the gently and steeply dipping dip slip shear zones, which were the directions of greatest permeability and fluid flow. The larger, lower grade bodies, which may have formed by coalescence, are elongate perpendicular to these directions. 相似文献