小泉政府力促联合国改革的玄机

2005年是联合国改革年,小泉政府籍此推进其联合国改革外交,把删除敌国条款和加入常任理事国作为其主要目标。从国家利益出发,日本提出自己的联合国改革方案:恢复联大生机与活力、改革安理会、改革秘书处、修改敌国条款、重新考虑联合国会费分摊及增加联合国日本工作人员数量等。但由于联合国改革本身的复杂性和小泉政府的强硬外交路线,其联合国改革方案能否实现及落实程度仍未可知。     

Leveraging diplomatic power and influence on the UN Security Council: the case of Australia

ABSTRACT

There is scepticism about whether a state like Australia can secure its interests and exercise influence on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). A case study of Australia’s experience as a UNSC member in 2013–2014 shows that it directly influenced UNSC decision-making in a number of ways: first, in the response to the MH17 incident; second, pushing forward UNSC practice through the first-ever resolutions on both ‘small arms and light weapons’ and police in peacekeeping; and third, as chair of three sanctions committees, influencing the decision-making environment towards greater transparency. While Australia did not achieve all its objectives, it made its views well-known. A second case study demonstrates that Australia’s opportunities to influence UNSC decision-making are not limited to stints of membership. Australia was able to achieve many of its foreign policy objectives in East Timor in 1999 through strategically engaging with key UNSC players through an informal diplomatic grouping: the Core Group on East Timor. Both case studies show that Australia’s diplomatic engagement with the UNSC is desirable, necessary and strategic, whether or not it is a current or prospective member.     

1961年美蒋关于外蒙古联合国代表权问题的争论

20世纪60年代,国际社会支持中国恢复联合国席位的力量日益增加,为了阻止中国进入联合国,美国搬出外蒙古问题,企图通过让外蒙古进入联合国这一“迂回”手法,达到保护国民党席位的目的。在策划该计划的过程中,美蒋发生了激烈争吵。经过数轮讨价还价,美蒋最终达成妥协,从而为外蒙古进入联合国打开了方便之门。     

Determining the Success of Economic Sanctions

This article applies the social-network conception of national power, derived from the social-network conception of the international system structure, to economic sanctions, one of the most widely studied empirical phenomena in international relations. The empirical analyses of economic sanctions presented here find that sanctions cases with disproportional structural-network power between sender and target were far less likely to be successful and those with the target state possessing high structural-network power were far more likely to be successful. The evidence from nonparametric model discrimination statistics and information criteria measures shows that the sanctions models with new social-network power measures have greater explanatory power than or statistically outperform those with old attributional power measures, such as the Correlates of War index and GNP.

一些政治学者认为强调农业和农民的“乡村情结”越来越失去其政治和社会意义,但并没有多少实证研究支持这一说法。为此,作者就人们对农业和农民的态度做了探讨性调查。调查结果显示,人们的态度符合“乡村情结式微”论,但会因年龄、位置、出生国、投票意向而有差异。不过,仍存在一种将乡村情结归诸农民的倾向,有对农民生产方式的强烈支持、以及对农业于国家未来重要性的坚信。令人惊奇的是,与过去三十年的市场自由主义相左,对政府之扶助农业的支持可谓强烈。     

‘Fare di ogni famiglia italiana un fortilizio’: The League of Nations' economic sanctions and everyday life in Venice 1

Abstract

The imposition of punitive sanctions against Italy by the League of Nations in November 1935 in response to the invasion of Ethiopia, a fellow league member, provided the fascist regime with an opportunity to mobilize the civilian population into ‘resistance’ against the ‘economic siege’ and to promote its ideals of nationalism, imperialist expansion and autarchy. This article examines the way in which the fascist authorities in Venice, aided by a supportive local press, sought to use the sanctions and ‘sanctions resistance’ to engage Venetians – especially women – in the fascist project and explores the effect of the anti-sanctions resistance measures on Venetians' daily lives. Placing importance both upon the regime's intentions as well as Venetians' reception of the anti-sanctions rhetoric, and drawing upon Michel de Certeau's observations on The Practice of Everyday Life, the article argues that Venetians' reception of such propaganda was characterized above all by confusion and by a multiplicity of personal choices and reactions, spanning a range of possible responses from unequivocal support through passive acceptance or indifference to outright rejection or subversion of the sanctions resistance measures that sought to elicit consent for the fascist project.     

Italy's foreign policy toward China: missed opportunities and new chances

Abstract

This essay provides an account of the erratic and troubled history of the relations between Italy and the People's Republic of China since the 1950s. After reaching their highest point in the two years immediately following the Tiananmen events – when Italy, more than any other Western country, worked to break China's international isolation – they have considerably frozen for a long time. The reason has to be found not only in the crisis that, since 1992, has overcome the Italian political system, but even more so in the structural limits of Italy's economic foreign policy and in the lack of a coherent strategy aimed at promoting Italian goods in world markets that provide huge opportunities – opportunities mostly neglected by the political-economic Italian establishment. The Berlusconi government replaced this negligence with fear-mongering behavior and recurring and outspoken protectionist remarks of various centre-right leaders, who feared the potential damage caused by China's increased competitiveness (which represented, in their opinion, an unfair trade practice) to the national industry. Though too recent to say if it will bear fruit, Prodi has made a desperate attempt for Italy to make up lost ground by leading to China what has been emphatically defined ‘the greatest institutional and business mission ever organized by Italy’ just a few months after his comeback to Palazzo Chigi.     

从《气候变化框架公约》进展看当前国际环境关系

自1992年联合国环境与发展大会缔结了为气候变化问题上的全球合作提供法律框架的《气候变化框架公约》以来,国际上已经历六次缔约方大会。虽然1997年其第三次缔约方会议签订了具有削减温室气体排放数量和时间限制具体目标的《京都议定书》,取得了该领域的一个关键性进展,但最近在荷兰海牙召开的旨在就《京都协定书》的目标与措施达成具体协议的第六次缔约方会议却以失败而告终。纵观国际社会在《气候变化框架公约》问题上的后续行动进展,可以充分看出当前的国际环境关系具有环境问题政治化、环境关系复杂化、环境合作艰难化以及环境斗争激烈化的特点。这使中国今后在环境与发展的问题上将面临更加严峻的挑战,为此必须尽早采取有效对策。     

The Ins and Outs of Iranian Industrial Resilience under Sanctions

This paper draws on export data from four of Iran’s key trade partners—the European Union, China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Turkey—to examine the robust and positive correlations between the export of parts and machinery to Iran and Iran’s industrial output, as measured by production index data published by the Central Bank of Iran for industrial enterprises with over 100 employees. The period of analysis is 2000 to 2017. It may seem intuitive that the output of Iranian manufacturers depends on the ability of companies to source intermediate goods such as parts and machinery. However, the imposition of sanctions on Iran is shown to have temporarily decoupled the relationship between European industrial exports to Iran and the Iranian industrial production index—the index remained stable even as European exports fell. An analysis of trade data for the other three trade partners included in this study quantitatively substantiates reports noting that in order to sustain the industrial production index, Iran engaged in processes that can be collectively described as “import reflection.” This entails substituting European intermediate inputs with Chinese inputs while also circumventing sanctions pressures on trade by sourcing European inputs via re‐export from the UAE and Turkey. These processes were fundamental to Iran’s economic resilience in the face of multilateral sanctions and have played a central role in Iran’s defense of its industrialized economy and particularly its non‐oil exports as the administration of US President Donald Trump pursues a new unilateral campaign of “maximum pressure” sanctions.     

中国对联合国维持和平行动的认知和参与

中国参与联合国维和行动经过了一个复杂的历史演进过程,大致可分为新中国成立后至改革开放前的原则否定、概不参与,改革开放后至冷战结束前的区另I对待、有限参与,冷战结束至今的积极支持、扩大参与三个阶段。中国对联合国维和行动政策的调整与国际环境和中国国内政治的变化是相对应的,它从一个方面反映了中国国际地位的提高、中国世界观念的变革和中国外交行为方式的转型。中国参与联合国维和行动的历史演进过程表明,中国维护世界和平的大国责任意识日益彰显。     

China's Economic and Political Penetration in Africa

A senior American specialist on China and noted geographer presents a study of that country's economic and political penetration into the African continent. The author identifies three key elements of China's objectives and plan, namely (1) support for Chinese policies in international affairs, particularly with regard to Taiwan, (2) search for oil and other mineral resources, and (3) creation of a new market for Chinese goods and services in tandem with additional jobs in China. The paper includes four case studies highlighting economic activities stimulated by Chinese loans and investments in the Republic of South Africa, Egypt, Sudan, and Angola. Considerable attention is devoted to oil imports, exports of cheap consumer goods, and construction and repair of infrastructure by Chinese technicians and laborers, as well as the competition between Chinese imports and host-country manufacturing and the PRC's diplomatic support of rogue African nations. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F020, F210, F350, F540. 11 figures, 1 table, 47 references.