Climate change,conflict, and cooperation: Global analysis of the effectiveness of international river treaties in addressing water variability

Climate-driven water variability is a natural phenomenon that is observed across river basins, but one that is predicted to increase due to climate change. Environmental change of this kind may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions which are not equipped with an appropriate institutional apparatus. Increased variability is also likely to challenge regions with existing institutional capacity. We argue that our best attempts to assess the ability of states to deal with variability in the future rest with considering how agreements have fared in the past. In this paper, we explore treaty effectiveness, or treaty resilience, by investigating whether particular water allocation and institutional mechanisms help mitigate inter-country tensions over shared water. We use water-related events from the Basins at Risk events database as a dependent variable to test particular hypotheses regarding the impact of treaty design on conflict and cooperation over time. A broad set of climatic, geographic, political, and economic variables are used as controls. The analysis is conducted for the years 1948–2001 using the country dyad as the level of observation. Findings pertaining to our primary explanatory variables suggest that country dyads governed by treaties with water allocation mechanisms exhibiting both flexibility and specificity evince more cooperative behavior. Country dyads governed by treaties with a larger sum of institutional mechanisms likewise evince a higher level of cooperation, although certain institutional mechanisms appear to be more important than others.     

1902年中葡交涉述论

1902年中葡交涉过程中,葡方先后提出扩大澳门界址、在澳门及周围各岛范围内任建工程并协助缉私、修造广澳铁路等项要求,并以承认中外新定税则和协助清政府在澳门征税缉私作为交换条件.中方对葡方企图扩大统治区域等严重侵害中国领土主权的要求给以坚决抵制,使葡方的主要目标不能实现;但为了取得葡方承认新定税则和协助中方征税缉私的目的,在修造广澳铁路问题上对葡方做出一定让步.     

二十世纪二三十年代“上海模式”对重庆的冲击

民国重庆城市现代化起步于刘湘“军人干政”时期。而川江航运的繁荣,城市精英的觉醒以及刘湘政权的若干举措,为“上海模式”输入重庆提供了重要条件。作为后发外生型条约体系城市,重庆的现代化不仅依靠西方现代性要素的刺激,而且更直接地受到“上海模式”的辐射和拉动。“军人干政”的负面效应致使以“上海模式”为蓝本的重庆城市现代化呈现畸变态势。在“上海模式”的冲击下,在本社会还缺少现代性因素积累的情况下,重庆城市现代化于20年代末期启动。     

Reluctant collaborators: Argentina and Chile in Antarctica during the International Geophysical Year, 1957–58

This paper suggests that Argentine and Chilean participation with the Antarctic section of the International Geophysical Year (IGY) of 1957–58 can be characterized as ‘reluctant collaboration.’ It then reflects on the implications of the nature of South American involvement for the history of the Antarctic section of the IGY, especially as it led to the negotiation of the 1959 Antarctic Treaty. During the initial planning stages of the IGY, both Argentina and Chile worried that proposals for widespread scientific research in the Antarctic continent would interfere with their contested claims to political sovereignty in the region. Yet despite their initial skepticism, Argentina and Chile found themselves swept along by the current of international scientific co-operation of the IGY, which persisted into the Antarctic Treaty negotiations of 1959. Within the limited options available, Chile and Argentina were able to negotiate an outcome that was not altogether unfavorable to their political interests. At the same time, their collaboration helped to legitimize both the IGY and the subsequent Antarctic Treaty.     

The Treaty of Peace with Japan and the Korean truce negotiations

The outbreak of the Korean War caused the U.S.A. to become determined in excluding the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from the Treaty of Peace with Japan, the signing of which is hoped to be hastened by winning the Korean War. Before the signing of the treaty, the U.S.A. intentionally delayed the Korean truce negotiations in order to prevent the PRC from attending the San Francisco Peace Conference. After the signing, the U.S.A. preferred an immediate cessation of hostilities in Korea, whereas the Soviet Union and the PRC, bogged down in the Far East by the terms of the treaty, were determined to take a hard-line stance, hoping that the U.S.A. would become tied down and drained on the Korean battlefield. Thus, there was a subtle relationship between the treaty and the negotiations in the context of the Cold War. Translated by Chen Dan from Shixue Jikan 史学集刊 (Collected Papers of History Studies) 2006, (1): 66–75     

斯皮内利与1984年《欧洲联盟条约草案》的产生

阿尔蒂诺·斯皮内利是二战后“欧洲联邦主义”的代表人物之一。20世纪70-80年代,他为了实现共同体改革,按“宪法方式”推进一体化,积极努力建立联邦式的欧洲联盟。特别是他在欧洲议会组织“鳄鱼集团”,推动欧洲议会制定并在1984年通过《欧洲联盟条约草案》,设计了一个联邦式的欧洲联盟的框架。这个“条约草案”没有付诸实施,但对重新激活欧洲一体化进程、推动共同体改革和《单一欧洲法案》的产生,起到了积极的作用。     

1797-1800年美国与法国准战争探析

18世纪晚期,美国为维护海上权益与地缘安全,加剧了与英法之间的矛盾。美国在《杰伊条约》中对英国的让步,换取到美英之间十年的和睦,却导致美法关系紧张,美国与法国从同盟走向准战争状态。最终美法危机得以和平解决,但这场准战争深深影响了美国早期的内政和外交。     

顾维钧与美台关于沿海岛屿的交涉 (1954.12～1955.2)

《共同防御条约》签署后,台湾当局与美国围绕如何处置大陈及金门、马祖等岛屿展开了新一轮交涉,由于立场不同双方出现了分歧和矛盾。顾维钧在这一交涉中扮演了重要角色,他与蒋介石等对沿海岛屿可能导致“两个中国”问题的警觉,为台美之间最后达成关于沿海岛屿的协议设定了一个底线。     

鸠山内阁时期中日、苏日关系比较研究

鸠山内阁时期,同属社会主义阵营的中苏两国都积极主张与日恢复邦交,苏日两国很快实现,而中日两国仍停留于民间交往。其原因是复杂的,文章着重从三个方面分析：1、在鸠山内阁外交战略中,日苏关系先于日中关系;2、中苏两国对日外交方式不同,苏联选择政府间的非正式外交方式,中国选择非政府间的民间交往方式;3、中苏两国对解决日俘、渔业等问题的认识不同,苏联将其视为邦交的资本,中国将其视为邦交的前提。     

评1868年中美《浦安臣条约》－以华工出国及华侨保护问题为视角

19世纪中叶,随着资本主义的迅速发展以及黑奴贸易的被禁,西方列强将其寻求廉价劳动力的目光转到了亚洲。两次鸦片战争后,中国人出国佣工形成高潮。签订于1868年的中美《蒲安臣条约》进一步促进了华工出国之步伐,同时也将西方社会保护本国侨民的观念融入其间,对清政府侨政的转变起了促进作用。