The Evolution of the Vitruvian Recipes over 500 Years of Floor‐Making Techniques: The Case Studies of the Domus delle Bestie Ferite and the Domus di Tito Macro (Aquileia,Italy)

The paper reports the results of a research project aimed at the characterization of the floor bedding mortars of two Roman houses in Aquileia (north‐eastern Italy), the Domus delle Bestie Ferite and the Domus di Tito Macro. Seventy floor bedding mortars of the two domus were selected and almost half were fully minero‐petrographically characterized by means of optical microscopy operated in transmitted light (OM‐TL), X‐ray powder diffraction analyses coupled with quantitative phase analysis by means of the Rietveld method (XRPD‐QPA) and scanning electron microscopy with EDS microanalysis (SEM–EDS). The results indicate an evolution of the mortar preparation techniques over time in the mosaic of both houses. The materials are compared to the traditional Roman recipes for specific construction techniques.     

A third road to the past? Historical scholarship in the age of big data

Is a third passage to the past possible, beyond Elton's and Fogel's two roads of narrative history and scientific/quantitative history? One that would combine narrative history's focus on the event, on individuals and their actions, at a particular time and place, to scientific/quantitative history's emphasis on explicit behavioral models based on social-science theories? That is the question this article addresses. It illustrates a computer-assisted methodology for the study of narrative—quantitative narrative analysis (QNA)—that does just that. Based on the 5 Ws + H of narrative—Who, What, When, Where, Why, and How—QNA quantifies events without losing the event itself, without losing people behind numbers, diachronic time behind synchronic statistical coefficients. When used in conjunction with dynamic and interactive data visualization tools (and new natural language processing tools), QNA may provide a third unforeseen road to the past.     

基于层次分析法的广元千佛崖摩崖造像病害程度量化评价

受多种自然因素和人为因素的共同作用,广元千佛崖石窟病害发育普遍,现有研究主要集中在病害种类调查与成因分析方面,对石窟病害程度的量化评价较少。本次研究以20座盛唐时期龛窟为研究对象,采用传统的病害调查方法明确病害种类,利用层次分析法对病害数据进行分析,最终确定15种常见病害在石窟劣化程度中的权重,量化表征拟研究对象的病害程度。结果显示,1)15种常见病害可分为两大类,一类为结构性病害,另一类为非结构性病害,15种病害在石窟劣化过程中权重不同;2)20座盛唐龛窟中,4龛保存较好,11龛保存状况一般,3龛保存状态较差,2龛保存状态差,与实地调查结果相符。本次研究量化表征了15种现存病害的影响权重和20座龛窟的保存现状,有助于快速有效判断石窟病害程度的轻重缓急,为保护措施的制定和优化提供依据。     

从"圣·迭戈"号沉船考古看海上的社会生活

对古代航海船只上社会群体生活状况的研究是社会史研究的重要课题,也是人类航海史研究不可或缺的内涵构成。但由于资料的缺乏,海上社会生活研究一直没有得到足够的关注。近些年来,由于考古工作者对沉船的科学发掘及对生活遗迹与遗物的详细纪录,使得古代海上社会生活的研究获得越来越丰富的资料。本文以"圣·迭哥"号沉船考古发现为基础,并结合文献资料、航海日记以及其他古代沉船的相关信息,对古代海上社会群体的生活状况以及社会关系进行了复原与探讨,以期能为海上社会生活史的深入研究做基础性的工作。     

郑州商文化陶字符量化分析

对郑州商文化陶字符量化分析结果显示,早商文化陶字符使用以具有首都地位的郑州早商文化遗址最为集中,具有较强的地域性。郑州早商文化陶字符分期演进中出现一些分界现象,缘于商文化的兴盛和文化中心的转移。郑州商文化陶字符多出现于祭祀场所和手工业作坊遗址具有特殊意义的遗迹,表明其主要为生活、手工业生产、祭祀活动中有关数量、日期、位序、族属、地点等信息的记录遗存。     

卡若遗址所见柱洞的定量分析

卡若遗址是发现于西藏昌都县的一处新石器时代遗址,于1978年经西藏自治区文管会和四川大学历史系考古专业发掘,两个单位联合撰写的发掘报告中主要介绍了建筑遗存和生产生活用具。发掘报告中统计完整、记录详细的房址柱洞资料引起了笔者关注,因此尝试用定量分析方法对以房址柱洞为主的建筑遗存进行探讨。通过统计分析,柱洞资料反映出了卡若文化在约1000年的发展过程中发展壮大,然后又由盛转衰的历史进程。从技术分析的角度印证了卡若聚落居民在史前生活中经历的生产生活方式的转变。     

Study of medieval glass fragments from Savona (Italy) and their relation with the glass produced in Altare

Altare was in the medieval and post-medieval period an important glassmaking center in the Liguria region in Northern Italy. The first historical evidence of glassmaking in Altare is dated to the twelfth century. In spite of that, due to the continuity of glassmaking up to the present time and the contemporaneous intensive urbanization of the territory, no medieval glass from Altare or its immediate vicinity has been analyzed up to now. In this work, glass from archaeological excavations in the center of Savona, city with close ties with the glassmaking center, was studied. Glass fragments, dated from the tenth to the sixteenth century were selected from the collections of the Archaeological Museum in Savona and non-destructively analyzed with quantitative PIXE-PIGE. The resulting compositions, compared with known glass productions of the same time and evaluated on the basis of historical documents, offer an interesting panorama on the variety of glass circulation in Liguria.     

Notes of papers read before the society through the Yangtse Gorges

Critics of spatial modeling make several damaging points: (1) results are often trivial; (2) they contradict a priori insights derived from theory or experience; and (3) they preclude an evaluation of the substantive coherence of theories. These critiques arise because analysts have selected criteria of statistical explanation over substantive interpretation. This paper reviews the trade‐off as exemplified by regression models. The paper then presents an alternative methodology, staged regression analysis, and discusses its three‐fold advantage over traditional regression models: (1) avoiding statistical‐substantive trade‐offs; (2) facilitating comparisons among spatial systems; and (3) evaluating and refining existing theory.     

Matched wake analysis: Finding causal relationships in spatiotemporal event data

This paper introduces a new method for finding causal relationships in spatiotemporal event data with potential applications in conflict research, criminology, and epidemiology. The method analyzes how different types of interventions affect subsequent levels of reactive events. Sliding spatiotemporal windows and statistical matching are used for robust and clean causal inference. Thereby, two well-described empirical problems in establishing causal relationships in event data analysis are resolved: the modifiable areal unit problem and selection bias. The paper presents the method formally and demonstrates its effectiveness in Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical example by showing how instances of civilian assistance to US forces changed in response to indiscriminate insurgent violence in Iraq.     

Implications of hydro-political dependency for international water cooperation and conflict: Insights from new data

Hydro-political dependencies between countries are widely regarded as having important implications for international water cooperation and conflict. Quantitative ex-post empirical research on the subject so far uses very simple characterizations of international river geography to proxy for such dependencies, though. The authors developed a new geo-spatial dataset for water catchments worldwide. This dataset combines elevation models, flow accumulation approaches, hydrological data, and data on international boundaries to generate more precise and nuanced measures of hydro-political dependencies among riparian countries. The paper discusses these measurement concepts, illustrates how dependencies are distributed worldwide, and revisits three prominent quantitative studies on the issue to show how using improved data affects empirical findings. In contrast to a very popular presumption, upstream–downstream dependencies turn out to have a very small to insignificant effect on international water cooperation or conflict.