Modelling of hydrology and potential population levels at Bronze Age Jawa,Northern Jordan: a Monte Carlo approach to cope with uncertainty

An annual water balance model for Wadi Rajil, in Northern Jordan, is used to simulate the ancient water supply system for the Early Bronze Age site of Jawa. The model includes: water delivery from the catchment; local pond storage; and water demand for people, animals and irrigation. A Monte Carlo approach is used to incorporate the uncertainty associated with a range of factors including rainfall, evaporation, water losses and use. The stochastic simulation provides estimates of potential population levels sustainable by the water supply system. Historical precipitation estimates from a Global Circulation Model, with uncertainty bounds, are used to reconstruct the climate at Jawa in the Early Bronze Age (EBA). Model results indicate that the population levels in the predicted wetter conditions during parts of the EBA could have risen to ∼6000 and may have been higher in wet years. However, palaeoclimatic proxies also suggest prolonged droughts in the EBA; and during these periods the water management system was unable to provide adequate supply for a population of 6000. The utility of Monte Carlo based hydrological modelling as a tool within archaeological science is discussed.     

Resource abundance constraints on the early post-contact Cherokee population

We present the combination of an analysis of resource demand by the early post-contact (1721) Cherokee population with spatially explicit estimates of production for five key resources: architectural land, agricultural land, firewood, hard mast, and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We combine a recent synthesis of village location and population, a map of recognized Cherokee territory, digital terrain data, estimates of per capita demand, and productive capacity for each resource. Average, high, and low demands were estimated for each resource and assigned based on a weighted function of terrain and distance from each village. We conclude that Cherokee demands for architectural and agricultural land, hard mast, and fuelwood were easily met within a short proximity to each town under all combinations of production and demand. These resources were likely not limiting, and were satisfied for the entire Cherokee population by less than 1% of the entire recognized Cherokee territory in 1721. These resources likely exceeded demand even when sources were restricted to the convex hull of the Cherokee territory, or to near stream, flat regions. Deer resources were likely harvested over a much larger area and to a much greater extent. Our best estimate of deer resource demand was 32% of annual sustainable production in the Cherokee territory, with from 16 to 48% of estimated sustainable production harvested for low and high demand estimates, respectively. Our estimates vary in response to uncertainties in deer production, harvest proportion, deer density, and sustainable harvest rates. Deer demand was substantially higher under all combinations of conditions than that available within the convex hull of Cherokee villages, indicating significant travel was needed to furnish deer requirements. Spatially explicit models that consider terrain- and distance-related tradeoffs suggest that Cherokee demand for deer drove harvest over areas consisting of over half the recognized Cherokee territory.     

中国人口地理学研究的回顾与展望

中国人口地理学直至20世纪30年代前后才形成。新中国成立后,开始得以发展。自党的十一届三中全会后,因贯彻改革开放的方针,促进了人口地理学的蓬勃发展。文章最后,展望了人口地理学的发展趋势。     

加拿大人回发展与人回迁移

本文简析加拿大人口发展与人口迁移过程,以及人口迁移对加拿大人口增长、种族、语言构成、人口分布及未来人口增长的影响。     

城市体系规模结构预测方法应用研究——以内江市为例

本文利用城市体系规模分布模型对内江市城市体系分形特征及规模结构进行了分析预测,指出了内江城市体系发展规律及促进其快速发展规律及促进其快速发展的对策措施。     

意象与现实:宋代城市等级刍议

人口数量是反映城市发展水平的重要指标。不少学者在论著中,从不同的侧面提出了他们关于宋代城市等级的看法,研究思路都是通过广泛搜集文献记载中偶存的宋代城市人口数据的片断信息,归纳得出结论,但相互间歧见颇大。其实,宋人关于城市人口规模的表述更多地是出于意象,宋人的这种意象,与其说主要依据于实际人口数量,不如说依据于城市的行政地位,因此在时人意象中城市规模的差序格局就形成了都城百万家、路治十万家、州军与重要县城万家以及一般县城数千家这样几个等级分明的序列。这说明至少就某种程度而言,在两宋士人的心目中,城市的行政地位比它们的实际规模更为重要。讨论宋代城市发展史不应忽视这一史实。     

The Demographics of Dystopia: The Muslim City in Asia’s Future

This essay argues that UN projected population growth will not only lead to more Muslims in Asia’s cities in a purely numerical sense, but also to more Muslim cities in a proportional and cultural sense through the continuation of existing trajectories of ‘de-cosmopolitanization’. Urban life will be deeply affected by this increasing shift from cities that are not merely majority Muslim, but are also increasingly Muslim in moral, social or political terms. Inevitably such changes will affect the lives of urban citizens, none more so than women. The essay then asks whether population growth will allow these cities to maintain their ‘globalizing’ trajectory of increasing interconnection. Having framed its analysis around the ‘hard’ outcomes of demographic change, the analysis then turns to ‘soft’ outcomes by tackling the question of the likely contours of the increasingly divergent versions of Islam produced by the competitive religious economies of the modern Asian city.     

The Journey of Infertility from Private Sphere to Public Domain: From Cosmetic Surgery to Disability

This study explores the process by which the treatment of infertility, which has been in the hands of the private sector, has been taken over by the state as a matter of public health. It argues that this shift stems from the pro-natalist policies of the state to help increase the population. Infertility treatment, using assisted reproductive technologies and its legitimization by the Islamic jurists, is used as a lens through which to examine the state's body politic. The frequent reversals of policies, since the late nineteenth century to the present, are shown to be directly linked with the nation-building goals of the state, expecting the citizens to readjust their reproductive behavior to meet the state’s policies.     

Camp Composition and the Rocky Mountain Fur Trade: Estimating the Native Presence at the Early Rendezvous and Winter Camps, 1825–1830

Rendezvous and winter camps were central to the early Rocky Mountain fur trade. However, available research provides no estimate of the number of people in attendance. Knowledge of the size and demographic makeup of the mountain gatherings would facilitate research on camp socio-cultural dynamics, interpretation of the historic events, and identification of modern archeological sites. The present study estimates the number of people present at the early rendezvous and winter camps (1825–1830). The estimations support existing research that emphasizes Native people's involvement in the fur trade. For instance, of the 1550 estimated attendees at the 1827 rendezvous, the Native contingent comprised approximately 90% of the total. While it is commonly known that Native peoples attended and participated in the Rocky Mountain fur trade rendezvous, this research presents evidence that the Native presence often far outnumbered the traders and trappers in attendance.