Solution Strategies for Three Problems in Empirical Fragility Curve Derivation Using the Maximum Likelihood Method

Solution strategies are presented to address three potential problems in the empirical derivation of fragility functions from empirical data using the maximum likelihood method. The first strategy addresses the case of fragility curves that cross, the second strategy incorporates demand uncertainty in fragility derivation from post-earthquake reconnaissance data, and the third strategy provides a framework for the resolution of conflict between empirical data and expert opinions. The advantages and disadvantages of the proposed solution strategies are discussed and their use is demonstrated by way of suitable illustrative examples.     

Bayesian Parameter Identification and Model Selection for Normalized Modulus Reduction Curves of Soils

This work develops a procedure that involves the use of Bayesian approach to quantify data scatterness, estimates the optimal values of model parameters, and selects the most appropriate model for the construction of normalized modulus reduction curves of soils. The proposed procedure is then demonstrated using real observation data based on a set of comprehensive resonant column tests on coarse-grained soils conducted in the study.     

Reduction Factors for Seismic Design Spectra for Structures with Viscous Energy Dampers

A simple mathematical expression is proposed to estimate spectra reduction damping factors for seismic design of systems with viscous dampers. The expression is obtained from the ratios between ordinates of uniform hazard spectra associated with two different return intervals (50 and 125 years), corresponding to sites with different types of soil within the Valley of Mexico. The expression proposed depends on the dominant period of the soil, and on both the vibration period and damping ratio of the structural system. Values of the damping factors proposed here are comparable to those recommended by different authors and seismic design building codes.     

The Analysis of Stone Tool Procurement, Production, and Maintenance

Researchers who analyze stone tools and their production debris have made significant progress in understanding the relationship between stone tools and human organizational strategies. Stone tools are understood to be morphologically dynamic throughout their use-lives; the ever-changing morphology of stone tools is intimately associated with the needs of tool users. It also has become apparent to researchers that interpretations of lithic analysis are more productive when the unique contexts and situations for which lithic artifacts were made, used, modified, and ultimately discarded are considered. This article reviews the recent literature on stone tool production with an emphasis on raw material procurement, manufacturing techniques, and tool maintenance processes as they relate to adaptive strategies of toolmakers and users.     

Estimating original flake mass from 3D scans of platform area

This study confirms the increased capacity to predict flake mass that arises from more accurately measuring surface area in three dimensions using a digital scanner. We also reveal the existence of significantly different relationships between platform area and flake mass for flakes with different platform types and ventral and dorsal morphologies. These different relationships between platform surface area and mass have not been previously identified, and reveal the complexity of platform/mass relationships. Using multivariate regression of 3D platform surface area and external platform angle we improve the accuracy of predictions of original flake mass. We propose a method for studying reduction intensity on retouched flakes, based on comparing predictions of the initial mass of the flake with measurements of the mass following retouching to estimate the amount of mass removed through retouching. We name this approach the Initial-/Terminal-Mass Comparison, or ITMC. Our experiments demonstrate that the capacity of the 3D platform scans to predict flake mass, and by implication the capacity of the ITMC to estimate mass loss, rivals or exceeds the capacity demonstrated for existing reduction measures.     

Cumulative Ductility Spectra for Seismic Design of Ductile Structures Subjected to Long Duration Motions: Concept and Theoretical Background

A seismic design procedure that does not take into account the maximum and cumulative plastic deformation demands that a structure will likely undergo during severe ground motion could lead to unreliable performance. Damage models that quantify the severity of repeated plastic cycling through plastic energy are simple tools that can be used for practical seismic design. The concept of constant cumulative ductility strength spectra, developed from one such model, is a useful tool for performance-based seismic design. Particularly, constant cumulative ductility strength spectra can be used to identify cases in which low-cycle fatigue may become a design issue, and provides quantitative means to estimate the design lateral strength that should be provided to a structure to adequately control its cumulative plastic deformation demands during seismic response. Design expressions can be offered to estimate the strength reduction factors associated to the practical use of constant cumulative ductility strength spectra.     

Numerical Fragility Analysis of Vertical-Pile-Supported Wharves in the Western United States

This study develops seismic fragility curves for vertical-pile-supported wharves commonly found in the western United States. Nonlinear time-history analyses of a two-dimensional numerical model under two ground motion suites are performed. The results show that the jumbo container cranes increase by 10.8% in the wharf deck drift. By using the experiment-based limit states, the proposed fragility curves demonstrate that, at a PGA of 0.50 g, the probabilities of exceeding slight, moderate, extensive, and complete limit states are approximately 23.0%, 7.0%, 4.0%, and 3.0%, respectively, while at a PGA of 1.00 g, the exceeding probabilities increase to 44.0%, 19.0%, 14.0%, and 11.0%, respectively.     

Effect of Topology Irregularities and Construction Quality on Life-Cycle Cost of Reinforced Concrete Buildings

Life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis entails consideration of building performance throughout the structures’ life. The impact and interaction of topology irregularities and construction quality (CQ) on LCC, however, are often ignored and require a more detailed evaluation. In this article, different levels and interaction of soft story (SS) and CQ are analytically modeled to quantify corresponding fragility curves and LCC (by considering hazard level, limit state cost, and probability of being in different damage states). The proposed method is illustrated with a three-, six-, and nine-story reinforced concrete building located in Vancouver (located in west coast of Canada).     

Performance-Based Seismic Assessment of Superelastic Shape Memory Alloy-Reinforced Bridge Piers Considering Residual Deformations

The application of superelastic Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) reinforcement in plastic hinge regions of bridge piers has been proven to reduce the residual displacement after a strong shaking owing to its unique shape recovery characteristics; however, the maximum deformation of the piers could increase due to the relatively lower modulus of elasticity of SMA bars and lower hysteretic energy dissipation capacity. In this context, this article applies a recently formulated probabilistic performance-based seismic assessment methodology that considers both the maximum and the residual deformation simultaneously to evaluate the performance of SMA reinforced bridge piers.     

Measuring core reduction using 3D flake scar density: a test case of changing core reduction at Klasies River Mouth,South Africa

A new core reduction index is presented, calculated as the ratio of flake scar number to 3D surface area (SDI). The index is tested experimentally on five types of core (blade, discoid, Levallois, biface and multiplatform cores) and then applied to the core assemblages from five sub-stages of the Middle Stone Age at Klasies River Mouth, South Africa. Preliminary results indicate that the SDI possesses the desirable attributes of a successful reduction index and is a significant improvement on traditional proxy measures of core reduction. The results of the archaeological case study confirm previous untested observations that cores from the Howiesons Poort and MSAIII sub-stages are more heavily reduced than preceding and following stages, and that local and exotic raw materials as well as different types of cores are all more heavily reduced during these periods. The SDI fills a significant lacuna in available core reduction measures.