Look who perpetrates violence and where: Explaining variation in forced migration

Are the causes of refugee and IDPs flows the same? While existing studies examine the causes of displacement in general, there is limited research on different determinants of internal and external displacement. Factors might have varying impacts on the decision to move within the country and flee abroad. Here, I argue the effect of violence on displacement as a function of perpetrator and geography (i.e., how spread it is). Increases in government violence increase the number of refugees because to escape government violence, people may have to cross an international border as governments are generally effective everywhere within their borders. On the other hand, rebel group activities are limited to a certain area and by leaving the conflict zone, civilians can be free from rebel violence. However, the spread of violence determines the decision to flee. If it is limited to a small region, people can escape from that area within the country and rebel violence increases the number of IDPs. If it is widespread, civilians may not have many opportunities within the country and have to move abroad. Therefore, the effect of rebel violence on internal displacement follows a reverse U-shape. The analysis of refugee and IDPs flows between 1989 and 2017 supports the main arguments and the results are robust to different model specifications and additional checks. This study highlights the importance of distinguishing the causes of internal and external displacement.