Solution Strategies for Three Problems in Empirical Fragility Curve Derivation Using the Maximum Likelihood Method

Solution strategies are presented to address three potential problems in the empirical derivation of fragility functions from empirical data using the maximum likelihood method. The first strategy addresses the case of fragility curves that cross, the second strategy incorporates demand uncertainty in fragility derivation from post-earthquake reconnaissance data, and the third strategy provides a framework for the resolution of conflict between empirical data and expert opinions. The advantages and disadvantages of the proposed solution strategies are discussed and their use is demonstrated by way of suitable illustrative examples.     

Performance-based Seismic Design of a Pendulum Tuned Mass Damper System

The study implements the performance-based analysis and design methodology to assess the seismic vulnerability of a coal-fired power plant and to optimally design its equivalent pendulum-type tuned mass damper system such that the direct losses are minimized. A building-specific total loss ratio is developed to link the component level losses with the total repair cost of the original structure. The optimal system configuration is finally derived for cases with the minimum loss. The study demonstrates a systematic way of achieving the optimal pendulum-type tuned mass damper design with considerations of uncertainties in earthquake inputs and the combined component level damages.     

Determination of the parameters of the Guildhall amphitheatre ellipse in London

The paper presents an algorithm for computing the parameters of an ellipse that fits, in a least-squares sense, the surveyed remains of Roman amphitheatre arena walls. The algorithm is validated using ideal data and the near complete remains of the amphitheatre at Sarmizegetusa in Romania. The technique is then applied to the partial remains of the amphitheatre at the Guildhall in the City of London, in the UK, which cover only the Eastern end of the monument. The underlying mathematical model and method of solution is presented. The method was developed with a view to determining firstly whether or not an ellipse is a feasible model for the actual constructed curve geometry, and secondly, where the Western end of the Guildhall amphitheatre might be located. One single ellipse was found to fit the Guildhall remains, with measurement residuals at the level of 30 mm in the eastings and 26 mm in the northings. The ellipse had a semi-major axis of 28.345 m and a semi-minor axis of 22.775 m. The issues of alternative geometries and the practicalities of their use in construction are considered.     

Stability of phytoliths in the archaeological record: a dissolution study of modern and fossil phytoliths

Opaline phytoliths are important microfossils used in archaeological and ecological research. Relatively little is known about the stability of phytoliths after burial. Under alkaline pH conditions they can dissolve, and mechanical disturbances can cause a loss of their more delicate appendages. Here we present an experimental study of phytolith stability (combination of solubility and abrasion). Modern and fossil phytoliths were extracted from wheat using new methods to minimize dissolution, and by burning in an oven. These assemblages were placed in a solution buffered to pH 10 and maintained under constant temperature and shaking conditions. The silicon concentrations in the solution were monitored once a week for 5 weeks. The phytolith morphologies in each assemblage were determined at the outset of the experiment and after 5 weeks. The results show that there are differences in stability between various assemblages. Modern inflorescence wheat phytolith assemblages are more unstable than those from leaves/stems. Burnt assemblages are less stable than unburnt assemblages, and a fossil phytolith assemblage about 3000 years old is more stable than the modern wheat assemblages. The results also show that individual phytolith morphotypes have different stabilities, and as a result of dissolution and abrasion, some morphotypes may resemble others. This study further shows that archaeological and/or paleo-environmental interpretation of phytolith assemblages may change with the assemblage’s state of preservation.     

Importance of Degrading Behavior for Seismic Performance Evaluation of Simple Structural Systems

This study focuses on effect of degradation characteristics on seismic performance of simple structural systems. Equivalent single degree of freedom systems are used for which the structural characteristics are taken from existing reinforced concrete (RC) frame buildings. Simulation of degrading behavior is achieved by considering actual experimental data. To obtain the seismic response of degrading structural systems, two different approaches are used: inelastic spectral analysis and fragility analysis. According to the results obtained from both approaches, degrading behavior is dominant for mid-rise RC frame buildings as it significantly amplifies seismic demand. Hence, in performance-based assessment approaches, analytical modeling of such degrading structures should be carried out carefully.     

Numerical Fragility Analysis of Vertical-Pile-Supported Wharves in the Western United States

This study develops seismic fragility curves for vertical-pile-supported wharves commonly found in the western United States. Nonlinear time-history analyses of a two-dimensional numerical model under two ground motion suites are performed. The results show that the jumbo container cranes increase by 10.8% in the wharf deck drift. By using the experiment-based limit states, the proposed fragility curves demonstrate that, at a PGA of 0.50 g, the probabilities of exceeding slight, moderate, extensive, and complete limit states are approximately 23.0%, 7.0%, 4.0%, and 3.0%, respectively, while at a PGA of 1.00 g, the exceeding probabilities increase to 44.0%, 19.0%, 14.0%, and 11.0%, respectively.     

Seismic Fragility Evaluation of RC Frame Structures Retrofitted with Controlled Concrete Rocking Column and Damping Technique

Acceleration response of simple yielding structure is proportional to its own weight, but it is limited by yield strength. Thus, using rocking columns that reduces global yield strength, a limited acceleration is achieved. However, the displacement becomes large due to lower strength and higher inelasticity, but it can be controlled by adding damping. Performing fragility analyses, the seismic response of R/C frame structures with rocking columns and viscous dampers is investigated. Near field MCEER ground motions are considered. The analyses show that the story accelerations are reduced by using rocking columns, while the story displacements are controlled by using viscous dampers.     

Effect of Topology Irregularities and Construction Quality on Life-Cycle Cost of Reinforced Concrete Buildings

Life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis entails consideration of building performance throughout the structures’ life. The impact and interaction of topology irregularities and construction quality (CQ) on LCC, however, are often ignored and require a more detailed evaluation. In this article, different levels and interaction of soft story (SS) and CQ are analytically modeled to quantify corresponding fragility curves and LCC (by considering hazard level, limit state cost, and probability of being in different damage states). The proposed method is illustrated with a three-, six-, and nine-story reinforced concrete building located in Vancouver (located in west coast of Canada).     

Successive Earthquake-Tsunami Analysis to Develop Collapse Fragilities

Over the last half century, scientists and engineers have developed methods to better understand and mitigate the damage caused by tsunamis. According to U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) P646, buildings in many regions, including the U.S. Pacific Northwest, will experience substantial ground shaking from an offshore earthquake that precedes a tsunami and then experience the tsunami forces themselves. Thus, both hazards should be considered in computing the damage and collapse risk to buildings. This article summarizes a basic approach to numerically consider the successive seismic and tsunami risk to buildings in near-field tsunami regions such as the U.S. Pacific Northwest.     

The Impact of Flood-Induced Scour on Seismic Fragility Characteristics of Bridges

Earthquake in the presence of flood-induced scour is a critical multihazard scenario for bridges located in seismically-active, flood-prone regions. The present article evaluates seismic performance of four example reinforced concrete bridges when they are pre-exposed to regional flood hazards. Nonlinear time history analyses of the example bridges are performed for a suite of ground motion time histories in the presence and absence of scour expected from different intensity flood events. Fragility analysis is performed to develop seismic fragility curves of the example bridges for various scour depths. Results show nonlinear increase in bridge seismic fragility with increase in scour depth.