Climate change,conflict, and cooperation: Global analysis of the effectiveness of international river treaties in addressing water variability

Climate-driven water variability is a natural phenomenon that is observed across river basins, but one that is predicted to increase due to climate change. Environmental change of this kind may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions which are not equipped with an appropriate institutional apparatus. Increased variability is also likely to challenge regions with existing institutional capacity. We argue that our best attempts to assess the ability of states to deal with variability in the future rest with considering how agreements have fared in the past. In this paper, we explore treaty effectiveness, or treaty resilience, by investigating whether particular water allocation and institutional mechanisms help mitigate inter-country tensions over shared water. We use water-related events from the Basins at Risk events database as a dependent variable to test particular hypotheses regarding the impact of treaty design on conflict and cooperation over time. A broad set of climatic, geographic, political, and economic variables are used as controls. The analysis is conducted for the years 1948–2001 using the country dyad as the level of observation. Findings pertaining to our primary explanatory variables suggest that country dyads governed by treaties with water allocation mechanisms exhibiting both flexibility and specificity evince more cooperative behavior. Country dyads governed by treaties with a larger sum of institutional mechanisms likewise evince a higher level of cooperation, although certain institutional mechanisms appear to be more important than others.     

从引文分析看大陆华侨华人研究——基于CSSCI（1998-2005）的研究

以中国社会科学引文索引(CSSCI)为操作平台,以核心作者群的被引论著为样本,对样本篇数、篇次、作者、机构、地域分布、主题分布、年代分布等因素进行了引文分析和量化的描述,并从文献的角度对大陆华侨华人研究现状进行评估。结果表明:大陆华侨华人研究1993—2002年是高峰期,形成了以福建、北京、广东为主的核心作者群,高等院校仍是华侨华人研究的主要机构,研究主题以经济、社会、历史为主,学术论文的利用率不高,高水平的研究成果不多。华侨华人研究在学术界的整体影响力不大,某些不够科学和规范的引证态度和方法亟需改进。     

明清时期瑶族向西南边疆及越南、老挝的迁徙

本文对明清时期的瑶族向西南边疆及越南、老挝等东南亚国家的迁徙进行了探讨。认为明清时期,由于封建统治阶级的政治压迫和经济剥削,以及刀耕火种游耕生产方式、自然灾害等方面的原因,瑶族被迫从湖南及湘粤桂边界大规模向西南边疆及东南亚一带迁徙,并由此而引起瑶族人口和其文化中心的转移,形成新的文化特征,瑶族亦由此而成为跨境民族。     

10世纪前中国西北边疆发展的几个特点

10世纪前的中国西北边疆经历了开拓、稳定和演变等过程,构成了一个相对完整的发展阶段,边疆发展的各种形态与主要特点尽皆呈现。南农北牧既是西北边疆的基本经济形态,也是历史上中原农业王朝与北方游牧民族角逐态势延伸的主要依据;在作为边疆主体的中原或内地王朝、客体的西域地区和旁体的北方游牧民族等三个主要因素的共同作用下,西北边疆的政治地理范围时有伸缩,而多种统治体制并存、边疆问题与民族问题一体化等特点也贯穿于这一时期西北边疆发展的整个过程。     

Managing Heritage in a War Zone

Threats to the rich Palestinian cultural heritage are many and diverse. They are quite serious and hard to deal with. Some of them, such as illegal digging and the antiquities trade, are the result of a mixture of past colonial history and internal and self-inflicted problems, while the Israeli Separation Wall, direct military and settlement activities are present-day external threats. Up to this very day, they are devastating the country’s heritage, and nothing has thus far been done to confront them. The present paper intends to discuss those threats and suggests ways to confront them.

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Résumé  Les menaces mettant en péril le riche héritage culturel Palestinien sont nombreuses et variées. Elles sont très sérieuses et d’un abord difficile. Certaines d’entre-elles, comme l’excavation illégale et le commerce des antiquités, sont le résultat d’un amalgame entre l’histoire post-colonialiste et de problèmes issus des Palestiniens eux-mêmes. Le mur dressé par les Israélien, les interventions militaires et les activités d’implantation dans les territoires occupés constituent actuellement des menaces. Jusqu’à ce jour, ils sont entrain de dévaster l’héritage du pays, et rien n’a été fait pour les confronter. Cet article a pour objectif de discuter de ces menaces et suggère des moyens de les confronter.

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Resumen  Las amenazas que acechan al rico patrimonio cultural de Palestina son muchas y muy variadas. Son, además, bastante graves y difíciles de combatir. Algunas de ellas, como la excavación ilegal y el comercio de antigüedades, se deben en parte a la historia colonial y a problemas autoinflingidos, mientras que el muro de separación israelí y las actividades militares y coloniales directas son las amenazas externas de la actualidad. Hasta hoy, han estado destruyendo el patrimonio del país y nada se ha hecho para evitarlo. En este trabajo se pretende analizar estas amenazas y sugerir medios para combatirlas.

     

Villagizing the city: turning rural ethnic heritage into urban modernity in southwest China

This paper examines the rural ethnic heritage-inspired transformation of the built environment of a relatively small county town in China. The paper explores the ways village-based ethnic heritage is being repositioned by local leaders as a resource for tourism-oriented revenue generation and for ‘improving’ the ‘quality’ and behaviour of town residents. Viewing heritage as a ‘technology of government,’ the paper provides an analysis based on three interrelated themes: the discourses by which town leaders and planners have conceived the heritage development project as one of improvement, the spatial practices by which those discourses have been realised in the built environment, and the ways residents themselves have appropriated and ‘inhabited’ this new ‘villagized’ city as they go about their everyday urban lives. Based on ethnographic field work, a survey, and extended interviews over a period of four years, the paper finds the town leadership’s faith in the ability of the built environment to shape and improve the conduct of citizens to be overstated. While the town’s transformation has generated a new sense of urban modernity among residents, their ways of inhabiting and using urban space have little relevance to the ‘heritagized’ environment in which they now live.     

华侨华人学科建设的反思：东南亚历史研究的视角与经验

本文的讨论围绕三个层面展开 :华侨华人研究 ,东南亚 (华侨华人 )研究以及笔者个人对槟城—吉打州华人商业与权力关系的研究。争论的实质是这样一个理论与方法论的问题 ,即华侨华人研究应该分别被视为某一孤立的主题研究领域、区域研究和学科研究方法 ,还是一个相互关联的结合整体的问题。本文并非企图为华侨华人研究确立一个标准 ,而仅仅是呈献一个实例 ,即把个人的研究视角和经历 ,结合大的结构、进程、理论和方法论的关怀等问题 ,进行情景化的考察。     

The efficacy of violence mitigation: A second look using time-series analysis

Among peace researchers and practitioners, it is generally accepted that efforts to prevent violence can be instrumental in its mitigation. So, it was distressing to read the research findings of Meier, Bond, and Bond (2007) that mitigation was positively related to organized raids in the Horn of Africa where there is pastoralist–pastoralist and pastoralist–agriculturalist violence. This article seeks to build on their research. It uses a ‘de-trending’ approach for time-series analysis that is commonly used in economics and financial studies. It reports an opposite statistically significant finding. When the data used by Meier et al. are de-trended, violence associated with organized raids is negatively correlated with mitigation. This negative correlation is similar when data on mitigation and organized raids are de-trended with time as a predictor, on the one hand, and with seasonality over time as a predictor, on the other. Implications regarding the temporal dimension of peace research and practice are presented.     

提高民族地区党的建设科学化水平研究

党的十七届四中全会提出了“不断提高党的建设科学化水平”的重大命题,既对党的建设提出了新要求,也为民族地区加强党的建设指明了方向。提高民族地区党的建设科学化水平,必须从民族地区的实际出发,认真分析民族地区党的建设面临的新形势新任务,在继承民族地区党建工作经验的基础上,将中央对提高党的建设科学化水平的一般性要求与民族地区党的建设工作的实践有机结合起来,找准和把握提高民族地区党的建设科学化水平的着力点,积极探求提高民族地区党的建设科学化水平的规律,努力探索出一条提高民族地区党的建设科学化水平的新路子。