解放太原战役期间中国共产党与阎锡山集团民众动员之比较

解放太原战役期间战争双方均需在当地动用大量民力、物资,民众动员起着至关重要的作用。中国共产党与阎锡山集团往复争斗近十五年,彼此已相当熟悉,二者的动员模式、技术极其相似,但实践效果却判若两途。通过比较双方在政治宣传、民众保障、组织发动、思想教育等方面的动员活动,可见中国共产党的民众动员更贴合人们的需求,能够获得民众的自觉支持;反观阎锡山方面却是官民区隔、上下离心,浩大的动员声势常流于表面。二者迥异的组织能力和政党文化影响了实际动员效果。太原战役期间双方在动员中呈现的差异不啻是当时国共之别的重要缩影,也折射出左右两党最终胜败的内在原因。     

国家图书馆藏甲骨(已公布部分)著录整理

中国国家图书馆所藏甲骨数量极为丰富,《甲骨文合集》和《甲骨文合集补编》仅收录其中部分藏品的拓片。本文以"中国国家数字图书馆·拓片数据库·甲骨拓片"业已公布的甲骨拓片和彩照为研究对象,进行著录整理。具体包括甲骨残片缀合15组、复原13组,并对742版甲骨做出著录情况的对勘。     

Political Commitment,Policy Ambiguity,and Corporate Environmental Practices

A lack of clear political commitment together with confusing rules and enforcement often characterize the institutional context of policy implementation and regulatory compliance in developing countries. By connecting such contextual features to existing models of policy implementation and regulatory compliance, we examine how regulatory factors are related to basic and proactive corporate environmental management practices in the Pearl River Delta region in China. Drawing on data derived from both a survey and in‐depth interviews, we show that a perception of clear political commitment to environmental protection across multiple government levels and units is positively associated with business efforts in basic environmental practices, regardless of the specific enforcement intensity. Nevertheless, a perception of clear political commitment is not related to proactive environmental practices. Conversely, a perception of policy ambiguity, in the form of confusing regulatory standards and enforcement, is negatively associated with corporate efforts in both basic and proactive environmental practices; yet, intensive inspections mitigate these negative associations with policy ambiguity.     

Performance-based Seismic Design of a Pendulum Tuned Mass Damper System

The study implements the performance-based analysis and design methodology to assess the seismic vulnerability of a coal-fired power plant and to optimally design its equivalent pendulum-type tuned mass damper system such that the direct losses are minimized. A building-specific total loss ratio is developed to link the component level losses with the total repair cost of the original structure. The optimal system configuration is finally derived for cases with the minimum loss. The study demonstrates a systematic way of achieving the optimal pendulum-type tuned mass damper design with considerations of uncertainties in earthquake inputs and the combined component level damages.     

民族地区政区调整与民族区域自治的实现路径--以20世纪50年代广西都安瑶族自治县设置为中心的探讨

20世纪50年代初期,以民族为名称的各层级自治区非均衡地建立,致使政府在已建立民族区域自治的地区与尚未建立区域自治的民族地区执行经济政策时出现偏差,经济政策偏差产生的优惠差异引发了都安瑶族群众谋求民族区域自治的问题。为了解决瑶族谋求民族区域自治问题,在采取经济政策调整和相应政治措施调整无果之后,为配合民族区域自治政策的落实,政府继而采取政区调整的方式,通过一系列行政区划调整的探索,最大限度地将瑶族纳入瑶族自治县内。最终,通过政区调整满足了少数民族对民族区域自治的需求,实现了民族地区各民族的和解与社会稳定。     

The Role of Engineer-in-Chief and the Introduction of Foreign Hydraulic Dredging Technology and River Conservancy into China, 1890s–1930s

This paper discusses studies of the development of river conservancy in modern China, and the role of engineers-in-chief in river improvement planning on rivers such as the Hai-ho (Haihe) and the Whangpoo (Huangpu). It discusses the introduction of foreign hydraulic dredging technology and management into two major Chinese ports. It then analyses the process by which two agencies of the Chinese government absorbed and adjusted this technology to suit local circumstances in the treaty ports of Tianjin and Shanghai beginning in the 1890s. Without prior experience in river conservancy, the conservancy boards adopted a range of foreign technologies. This allowed them to develop into major institutions that facilitated increasing trade flows between China and the rest of the world. Of particular significance in this process of technological change was the role of the expatriate engineers-in-chief who were employed as chief executive officers of both agencies. They were responsible for establishing the operations of the agencies, accommodating an increasing range of responsibilities such as financial and human resource management, and training Chinese engineers and managers for senior positions until they were ready to replace the expatriate engineers-in-chief after the 1930s.     

Assessing Quality of Spatial Models Using the Structural Similarity Index and Posterior Predictive Checks

Model assessment is one of the most important aspects of statistical analysis. In geographical analysis, models represent spatial processes, where variability in mapped output results from uncertainty in parameter estimates. Slight spatial misalignments can cause inflated error scores when comparing maps of observed and predicted variables using traditional error metrics at the level of individual spatial units. We conceptualize spatial model assessment as a continuous value map comparison problem and employ methods from image analysis to score model outputs. The structural similarity index, a measure that attempts to replicate the human visual system using a local region approach, is used as an exploratory map comparison statistic. The measure is implemented within a Bayesian spatial modeling framework as a discrepancy measure in a posterior predictive check of model fit. Results are reported for simulation studies representing a variety of spatial processes in a spatial and space–time context. A case study of rainfall mapping in Sri Lanka demonstrates the proposed methodology applied to assessment of Bayesian kriging interpolations. Both simulation studies as well as the case study demonstrate that the approach reveals hidden spatial structure not uncovered by traditional methods. The spatially sensitive assessment methodology provides a diagnostic tool to support spatial modeling and analysis. La evaluación de modelos es uno de los aspectos más importantes de análisis estadístico. En el análisis geográfico, los modelos representan procesos espaciales en los que la variabilidad en los outputs es el resultado de la incertidumbre en los parámetros estimados. Leves desajustes espaciales pueden inflar los valores de error en la comparación entre los mapas de las observaciones y los mapas de las predicciones de las variables si es que se usan medidas tradicionales de medición de error al nivel de unidades espaciales individuales. Los autores conceptualizan la evaluación de modelos espaciales como un problema de comparación mapas de valor continuo y emplea métodos de análisis de imágenes para cuantificar los resultados del modelo. Se utiliza el índice de similitud estructural (SSIM), una medida que intenta replicar el sistema visual humano utilizando un enfoque de región local, como técnica de exploratoria comparación estadística de mapas. El índice es implementado dentro de un marco de modelización espacial bayesiano como medida de discrepancia en la comprobación posterior de predicción del desempeño del modelo. Los resultados se presentan para varios casos de simulación que representan una serie de procesos espaciales en un contexto espacio‐temporal y espacial. Un estudio de caso de mapeo de lluvias en Sri Lanka sirve como demostración de la metodología propuesta y su aplicación a la evaluación de las interpolaciones tipo krigeage (kriging) bayesianas. Tanto los estudios de simulación, así como el estudio de caso demuestran que el enfoque propuesto revela la estructura espacial oculta no evidenciada por métodos tradicionales. La metodología de evaluación espacialmente sensible que se presenta en este artículo proporciona una herramienta de diagnóstico para apoyar la elaboración de modelos y análisis espacial. 模型评估是统计分析中最为重要的内容之一。在地理分析中用模型表达空间过程,参数估计的不确定性会导致地图输出结果的可变性。当采用传统误差指标度量,在个体空间单位水平上进行观测和预测变量的地图比较时,微小的空间错位就可能导致误差的倍增。为此,本文通过将空间模型评估指标概念化为一个连续值图比较问题,并利用图像分析方法来评定模型输出。一种尝试以局域方法仿制人类视觉系统的度量指标——结构相似指数(SSIM),被用作为探索性地图的比较统计量。在贝叶斯空间模型框架下实现其量算,并将其作为一个偏差度量应用于模型拟合的后预测校验。仿真研究的结果显示出空间及时空环境下多类空间过程。以斯里兰卡降雨过程图为案例,展示了上述方法对贝叶斯克里格插值的准确性评估。仿真研究与实证结果均证明本文提出的方法可揭示以往传统方法掩盖的空间结构特征,空间敏感性评价为本研究的空间建模和分析提供了一个诊断工具。