中日现代化进程中观念冲突之一斑——以李鸿章与森有礼在直隶总督府的论战为中心

141年前,李鸿章和森有礼曾就日本军舰“云扬号”入侵朝鲜江华岛事件以及学习西方、变革服制、举借外债等问题在保定展开了一场激烈的论战。本文考察了森有礼于光绪元年腊月二十八日赴直隶总督府与李鸿章举行会谈的背景,并基于1899年出版的《森先生传》中揭载的对话记录,译介、分析了这场对话的主要内容;指出,尽管李鸿章组建了一个人数众多的幕府,但由于无法破除人身依附关系,未能建立独立的智库,以致他很难听到不同的意见,学到有价值的新知。因此,李鸿章与森有礼论战时无法占据明显优势也就在所难免。     

Nationalism,patriotism, or national reference? A response to Jacopo Custodi

Jacop Custodi elaborated recently a response to our article “A nationalist party with non-nationalistic voters? Discussing the limits of nationalism in party categorisation” published in the journal Nations & Nationalism. We consider the work of Custodi is an important and original contribution to the study of left politics and nationalism. This being said, we reflect on the negative consequences of overstretching the category nationalism, both referring to parties and to political discourse. The aim of this reply is unpacking and explaining these negative consequences and offering an alternative as well as responding to some specific points raised by Custodi in his reply.     

乡村振兴导向下乡村发展能力的多维测度及时空交互特征

乡村振兴要求走乡村内生性发展道路,客观认知乡村发展能力的时空分异格局和交互关系对乡村振兴战略实施具有重要意义。本文从农业产业发展、农村基础建设和农民社会生活三个维度构建测度指标体系,并引入面板向量自回归模型识别影响乡村发展能力的敏感因素,以此测度乡村发展能力指数,进而采用探索性时空数据分析方法揭示乡村发展能力的时空交互特征。结果表明：(1)我国中部地区多维乡村发展能力提升,但呈明显的空间异质性,不同维度间差异化显著;(2)中部地区多维乡村发展能力局域空间格局呈现较强的动态性并整体表现出较强的空间依赖关系;(3)邻接地级市多维乡村发展能力的时空交互网络以正向关联为主,局部空间呈差异化的竞合态势。     

Evidence on economies of scale in local public service provision: A meta-analysis

The standard theory of optimal jurisdictional size hinges on the existence of economies of scale in the provision of local public goods and services. However, despite its relevance for forced local amalgamation programs and related policies, the empirical evidence on the existence of such economies of scale remains elusive. The main goal of this paper is to produce an updated and comprehensive quantitative review of the existence of economies of scale in the provision of local public goods using a meta-analysis approach to systematize the wide range of empirical approaches and modeling frameworks found in the previous literature. Our analysis confirms the presence of moderately increasing to constant returns to scale in the provision of local services with no reduction in the average costs of production in the delivery of most local public services beyond a certain, modest jurisdictional size, which many studies have estimated at 10,000 residents. Also, the potential for economies of scale differs at least across three traditional services: education, water and sanitation, and garbage collection, being highest for education and lowest for garbage collection. Our analysis also offers guidelines for future empirical research in this area. Physical output and production cost data should be used, together with translog specifications for the modeling of cost functions. Last, we find evidence that the determinants of output cost elasticity include bidirectional publication bias and population density but do not include the presence or absence of modern “lean” production technologies or the (perceived) capital intensity of the sector, contrary to conventional wisdom. These findings have significant policy implications for countries considering jurisdictional consolidation programs.     

Inter- and intraregional inequality in a spatial economy

In this paper, we develop a three-region economic geography model with workers of heterogeneous skills and mobility rates to consider how first-nature, regional differences impact both inter- and intraregional inequality. In our model, the skill premium within a region summarizes both the degree of intraregional inequality between mobile, skilled workers and immobile, unskilled workers and the interregional inequality through differences in the welfare of unskilled workers across regions. Regions with the highest skill premium have the greatest degree of intraregional inequality and provide the lowest level of welfare to unskilled workers, relative to other regions. We find that the skill premium will be higher in regions with a greater supply of unskilled labor, lower supply of housing, or are more remote. An increase in a region's housing supply or centrality will lower intraregional inequality and raise the welfare of the local, unskilled workforce. However, the magnitude of these changes are declining in the initial number of skilled workers in the region. The model is extended to consider imperfectly elastic housing supply. The larger the price elasticity of housing, the larger the range of values, such that more populated regions will host a disproportionate share of skilled workers, have lower levels of intraregional inequality, and provide higher levels of welfare for unskilled workers.     

Bayesian Spatial Filtering for Hedonic Models: An Application for the Real Estate Market

This article presents a Bayesian method based on spatial filtering to estimate hedonic models for dwelling prices with geographically varying coefficients. A Bayesian Adaptive Sampling algorithm for variable selection is used, which makes it possible to select the most appropriate filters for each hedonic coefficient. This approach explores the model space more systematically and takes into account the uncertainty associated with model estimation and selection processes. The methodology is illustrated with an application for the real estate market in the Spanish city of Zaragoza and with simulated data. In addition, an exhaustive comparison study with a set of alternatives strategies used in the literature is carried out. Our results show that the proposed Bayesian procedures are competitive in terms of prediction; more accurate results are obtained in the estimation of the regression coefficients of the model, and the multicollinearity problems associated with the estimation of the regression coefficients are solved.     

The Middle Neolithic of Morocco’s North-Western Atlantic Strip: New Evidence from the El-Khil Caves (Tangier)

The period comprising the end of the Early Neolithic and the Middle Neolithic, dated broadly within the fifth millennium cal BC, corresponds to an interval that remains largely unknown in the extreme north-western tip of Africa. This situation contrasts with that of the Early Neolithic, a period characterised by the earliest evidence of the diffusion of a productive economy, cultivated plants and domestic animals. The paucity of data for these later phases can be explained in part by the lack of secure contexts and sequences based on radiocarbon datings of short-lived samples. The current study presents the results of the excavations of El-Khil Caves B and C that yield materials allowing re-evaluation of the chronology of a type of ceramic known as Ashakar ware. The study also identifies two traditions in the northern Moroccan Middle Neolithic. The first is heir to the so-called Impressa Mediterranean ware and rooted in the Cardial Neolithic, while the second is characterised by roulette cord impressions, red slip and tunnel lugs and probably rooted in the region of the Sahara, and has no technological precedents in the study area.     

国外进口瓷器修复专用材料的应用研究

国内外瓷器修复的基本流程没有很大差异,但是西方国家生产的修复专用材料品种较丰富,值得国内修复界吸收与应用。为此,本研究着重对Hxtal NYL-1、Golden Porcelain Restoration Glaze、Golden Polymer Varnish with UVLS三款瓷器修复专用产品开展分析研究。测试结果显示,在国内外5类环氧树脂中,Hxtal NYL-1的拉伸强度最低,断裂伸长率最高。Hxtal NYL-1在波长365nm的紫外线照射78d后,其色差变化最平稳。紫外可见光谱数据显示Golden Glaze仅吸收一定的中波紫外线UVB,Golden Varnish对长波紫外线UVA和中波紫外线UVB都具有吸收能力。波长365nm紫外老化实验可证明Golden Glaze和Golden Varnish都具备较好的光稳定性。而在254nm紫外老化环境下,Golden Varnish表现出更佳的抗紫外性能。此外,围绕瓷器修复实例,对这些产品的在修复中的使用方法进行了简要梳理。