Fitting Constrained Poisson Regression Models to Interurban Migration Flows

This paper demonstrates the effects of fitting singly and doubly constrained spatial interaction models using the Poisson regression approach. A large data set containing migration flows between labor market areas in Great Britain in 1970–71 is used. The results of fitting unconstrained, singly constrained, and doubly constrained models are compared with respect to goodness of fit and the interpretability of parameter estimates. The addition of other explanatory variables to the model is also explored.     

South Africa: The politics of pre‐negotiations, 1989–1991

The international community has hailed South African state president, F.W. de Klerk, a ‘liberator’. De Klerk liberalised the political process and deracialised aspects of state and society. But how committed to racial reform are be and his government? The regime's policies, strategies and tactics over the last two years raise many concerns that the international community has either baulked or simply ignored. The argument that the government must be rewarded and encouraged is fallacious. The South African government reacts only to pressure. The international community acted prematurely by lifting some sanctions and is undermining the prospects for a post‐apartheid society based on equal rights.     

Modeling Migration Careers,Using Data from a British Survey

Development of more sophisticated techniques for modeling longitudinal data has implications for improving our understanding of migration. This paper uses longitudinal data from the British Social Change and Economic Life initiative to disentangle the effects of population heterogeneity, progress through the life cycle and secular change on observed migration differentials. The data consist of retrospective life histories from people sampled in several contrasting localities in Great Britain, in which residential moves can be linked to changes in occupation and household structure. We present a framework for analysis of data of this type using a generalized linear modeling approach, together with results concerning variations in the probability of migration with age, gender, and changes in household and occupational circumstances. Of particular note is the evidence of substantial duration-of-residence effects and an unexpected later-career increase in migration propensity.     

After Augustine,after Markus: the problem of the secular at the end of antiquity

This article revisits Robert Markus's account of the de-secularization of the Latin West between Augustine and Gregory the Great. It uses letters of advice for rulers written by early sixth-century clerics to contest his narrative of a ‘grand simplification’ of Christian thought. Multiple overlapping conceptions of the secular were still in play after the fall of Rome, articulated, not in the absence of, but in dialogue with robust political institutions. By uncoupling Christian ideas of secularity from the actual degree of religious pluralism or tolerance in a given society, historians can better capture the continued complexity of early medieval secularities.