Border protection,the 2001 Australian election and the coalition victory

While the issue of refugees and asylum-seekers has preoccupied many European countries, until the November 2001 federal election Australia had largely been immune from the problem. In the election, border protection—combining the Tampa crisis with the ‘war against terrorism’—were central electoral issues. Analysis of the 2001 Australian Election Study shows that border protection cost Labor the election. Labor suffered defections to the Democrats and Greens over its position on refugees and asylum-seekers, and defections to the Coalition on terrorism. Negative public attitudes towards asylum-seekers rested on oppo sition to immigration, but also on a particular dislike of arrivals from the Middle East. By contrast, support for the ‘war on terrorism’ was based mainly on notions of fairness and democracy. Of the two border protection issues— asylum-seekers and terrorism—terrorism was the more important of the two in shaping the election outcome. If 11 September had occurred but the Tampa crisis had not, the Coalition would in all probability still have won the election.     

The 1983 change in surplus vote transfer procedures for the Australian senate and its consequences for the single transferable vote

Among the 1983 changes to the electoral rules for Australian Senate elections using the Single Transferable Vote (STV) was a new procedure for determining the transfer of vote surpluses. The adoption of this modified (‘inclusive’) Gregory method has tended to be overlooked in the literature, yet as this article shows—using both hypothetical and real-world examples—it incorporates an anomaly that could have significance for electoral outcomes. This has important implications not only with regard to whether the ‘correct’ candidate is elected, but also for wider social choice debates over the quasi-chaotic nature of STV.     

The Electoral Politics of Economic Reform in Australia: The 1998 Election

Like many other advanced industrial democracies, Australia has experienced major and ongoing economic reform over the last two decades, the pace of which has, if anything, increased since the election of the Liberal‐National government in 1996. These developments have led to a growing sense of economic insecurity among many voters. Many of these concerns were focused on the 1998 election, when the Liberal‐National Coalition advocated the introduction of a goods and services tax. This paper uses the 1998 Australian Election Study (AES) survey to examine the impact of economic evaluations, economic insecurity and economic issues on voting in the election. The results demonstrate the existence of widespread economic concerns across the electorate, but that the Coalition gained a marginal electoral advantage on the tax reform issue. Economic issues were also a cause of defection to the new One Nation Party, although further analysis reveals that its support was motivated more by race and ethnic concerns than by economic discontent.     

Elite‐nonelite linkages in Australia: An empirical analysis

Research conducted in Europe and the United States has shown that the nature of the linkage between the elite and the non‐elite is crucial in modern democratic societies. With data drawn from matched samples of the workforce, and of leaders in government, business and trade unions, this paper uses multivariate analysis to examine attitudinal linkages between the elite and the non‐elite in Australia. The results show, firstly, that there is little variation in the belief structures of the two groups, though this may be partly a consequence of the questions that were asked. Secondly, there are significant variations in where the elite and mass are distributed in these attitudes, and some additional variations within the elite itself. Finally, three hypotheses are tested to explain the differences in elite‐nonelite attitudes. Two hypotheses — that the variations can be attributed to socioeconomic status or elite networks — have little empirical foundation, while the third hypothesis — that variations in levels of information and political interest account for the differences — gains more substantial empirical support.     

Explaining voting in the 2017 Australian same-sex marriage plebiscite

The 2017 Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey led to the adoption of same-sex marriage. Using ecological analysis, this paper tests five hypotheses to explain voting in the plebiscite. Social characteristics exerted a strong influence on the vote, with a higher ‘yes’ vote in more affluent and suburban electorates, and a higher ‘no’ vote in electorates with large numbers of traditional households. The strongest predictor of a ‘no’ vote was electorates with large proportions of newly arrived immigrants. Electorates that had larger proportions of female same-sex couples displayed a higher ‘yes’ vote. Higher turnout in the plebiscite benefitted the ‘yes’ vote. Finally, the views of the local MP on the issue were positively related to the result in their electorate.     

Partnership Networks for Urban Development: How Structure is Shaped by Risk

In delivering public policy, governments worldwide increasingly partner with diverse sets of stakeholders. This spreads commercial risk, but particularly where agendas diverge, introduces new risks related to trust in relationships. The “risk hypothesis” distinguishes between networks for “cooperation” problems, where partners have high individual payoffs for uncooperative behaviors, and “coordination” problems, where partners subscribe to a common goal and uncooperative behaviors are less rewarding. We used mixed‐methods to study networks of local and state government, developers, and consultants that center on joint‐venture partnerships for developing new urban, residential projects. Statistical network methods showed that within the mix of partners involved in development projects, only state governments displayed structural patterns associated with solving “cooperation” problems (rather than coordination). In other words, the patterns of state government interactions showed they are most exposed to risky relationships. In contrast to the state governments’ apparent exposure to risk, qualitative data showed they are not only well trusted but also overall the partnership networks reported very low levels of conflict. By exploring the distribution of “cooperation” and “coordination,” we identified which stakeholders perceived most risk. In our case, how the state governments’ structure interactions in response to risky relationships leads to an overall network characterized by trust.     

Class,ethnicity, and voting behaviour in Australia∗

This paper assesses the importance of a range of social structural influences on Australian electoral behaviour, with specific reference to ethnicity and occupational class. The analysis is conducted on two levels. Firstly, aggregate level data is employed, using the 1976 census matched by federal electorate to the 1977 election results. Techniques from factorial ecology are used to construct conceptually unambiguous measures of constituency characteristics, and these are related to voting behaviour using multivariate techniques. Secondly, individual level survey data collected in 1979 are used to confirm the importance of the socioeconomic cleavage and urban‐rural divisions. They also indicate that ethnicity has an appreciable influence on electoral behaviour among those born in Mediterranean countries. Northern Europeans (mainly British) prove to be no different in their electoral behaviour than native‐born Australians, while the results for Eastern Europeans are inconclusive.     

The politics of lowering the voting age in Australia: Evaluating the evidence

There is a vigorous international debate about lowering the voting age to 16, with some jurisdictions already moving in this direction. The issue of the voting age also intersects with broader normative and empirical approaches to youth political engagement. Using evidence from Australia, this article evaluates empirically the arguments put forward for lowering the voting age. The findings suggest only partial support for lowering the voting age to bring it into line with other government-regulated activities. There is no evidence that lowering the voting age would increase political participation or that young people are more politically mature today than they were in the past. The absence of empirical support for the arguments in favour of lowering of the voting age has implications for how to transform democracy in order to attract greater youth engagement.

是否把选举年龄降到16岁,国际上有着激烈的辩论。有些法律体系已在朝这个方向运动。选举年龄的话题与更广泛的、有关青年政治参与的规范性及经验性研究有所交集。本文根据澳大利亚的资料,从实证的角度评论了主张降低投票年龄的观点。本文的发见仅部分支持降低选举年龄与有关政府法规的接轨。现在无法证明降低选举年龄会提高政治参与,也无法证明今天的年轻人比过去的年轻人政治上更成熟。降低选举年龄的主张缺少实证的支持,那么该如何改变民主制度以吸引年轻人更多的参与呢？     

Corruption and confidence in Australian political institutions

Corruption is inimical to public support for democratic government. This article uses Australian public opinion surveys to clarify the link between corruption and views of political institutions. The results show that citizens' personal experiences of corruption among public officials are negligible, but that three in four believe that there is some corruption among politicians and almost half believe that corruption in Australia is increasing. Perceptions of corruption matter much more than personal experiences of corrupt public officials in shaping confidence in political institutions. For policy-makers, the findings have implications for how corruption is handled, and in the measures that should be put in place to allay the public's fears about the increase in corruption.

腐败妨碍了公众对民主政府的支持。本文使用澳大利亚舆论调查,澄清了腐败与政治体制观的联系。研究显示公民个人对于公职人员腐败的经验可以忽略不计。倒是四分之三的人相信政客中存在某种腐败,几乎近一半人相信腐败在澳大利亚与日俱增。对腐败的认识,比个人对公职人员中腐败的耳闻目见,对于形成对政治体制的信赖要重要得多。对于政策制定者,这些发现有助于他们处理腐败,采取措施缓和公众对于日增的腐败的恐惧。