INTERPREFECTURAL MIGRATION AND ITS EFFECTS ON PREFECTURAL POPULATIONS IN JAPAN: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE 1980 CENSUS

This paper analyses the 1979-80 migration data of the 1980 Japanese census, the emphasis being on the overall and age-specific redistributional potentials of inter-prefectural migration. The main findings are as follows. First, even after the onset of counterurbanization, when the overall redistributional potential of migration in Japan was substantially weakened, the interprefectural variation in population growth depended more strongly on inmigration, outmigration, and net migration than on birth, death, and natural growth. Second, the migration process in Japan shared several general properties with those in other developed countries, including the fact that out- and inmigration rates were positively correlated, and that the variation in net migration rate depended much more strongly on in-migration than on outmigration. Third, the redistributional potential of the migration of the 15–19 age group was strongest and was spatially least similar to those of most other age groups. Fourth, there were distinct age patterns in net migration rate among four types of prefectures: (1) metropolitan core, (2) suburban, (3) regional growth pole, and (4) peripheral rural, the contrast being sharpest between the first and the last type. Finally, while the phenomenon of 'retirement migration' was still missing in Japan, the strong age-selectivity in migration continued to distort the age compositions of prefectural populations so that the burden of the elderly is relatively severe in peripheral rural prefectures.     

RETURN AND ONWARD MIGRATIONS IN CANADA, 1976-1981: AN EXPLANATION BASED ON PERSONAL AND ECOLOGICAL VARIABLES

This paper applies a three-level nested logit model to the micro data of the 1981 Canadian census to explain the 1976-81 interprovincial migration choices of the non-natives (those whose province of residence was different from province of birth), aged 20 to 44, by personal factors and provincial attributes. Important personal factors include mother tongue, level of education, family type, and age. Influential provincial attributes include economic variables (income level, employment growth, and unemployment), distance, and cultural similarity. The main finding is that not only onward migrants but also return migrants were sensitive to the interprovincial variation in economic opportunities.
Dans cet article, nous appliquons un modèle logistique embotéà trois niveaux à des données micro du recensement canadien de 1981 afin ďexpliquer les choix effectués en matière de migration interprovinciale par les non-natifs (ceux résidant hors de leur province de naissance) gés de 20 à 44 ans). Les variables explicatives mises en valeur incluent des variables personnel les (langue maternelle, niveau ďinstruction, genre de famille et ge), des variables écologiques essentiellement économiques (niveau de revenu, croissance de Ľemploi et chdmage) ainsi que des variables relationnelles (distance et similarity culturellé). Selon le principal résultat obtenu, non seulement les migrations de depart mais aussi les migrations de retour sont sensibles aux écarts interprovinciaux en termes ďoccasions économiques.     

INTRAURBAN MORTALITY VARIATION and INCOME DISPARITY: A CASE STUDY OF HAMILTON-WENTWORTH REGION

This paper characterizes and explains mortality variation among census tracts of Hamilton-Wentworth Region, Ontario, during 1980–82. Analysis is based on the age-specific death rate of the 55 to 64 age group, computed for each sex by categories of major cause. Mosk and lohansson's (1986) four stages of mortality/income relationship and Omran's (1977) theory of epide-miological transition provide context for understanding mortality variations. Logit models and the maximum quasi-likelihood estimation method allow for statistical inference. Research findings show that spatial patterns of mortality are more fragmented and less explainable for females than for males; that mortality is dependent (1) negatively on median family income and the percentage of individuals who are married and (2) positively on unemployment rate and the percentages of individuals who are single, widowed, and divorced or separated; among socioeconomic variables derived from the 1981 census, median family income is the most powerful explanator of intraurban mortality variation and, in this context, other explanatory variables are not statistically significant; and, in terms of the theoretical frameworks of Mosk and johansson (1986) and Omran (1977), mortality patterns for females are shown to have progressed further than for males. Cet essai caractérise et explique les variations de mortalité apparues en étudiant les tracts de recensement de la Région d'Hamilton-Wentworth, Ontario, en 1980–82. L'analyse est basée sur le taux de mortalité spécifique au groupe des 55 à 64 ans, en prenant en considération les deux sexes et les différentes catégories de cause majeure de mortalité. La relation mortalité/revenu en 4 étapes de Mosk et Johansson offre un contexte permettant de mieux comprendre les variations de mortalité. Les modeles Logit et la méthode d'estimation de quasi-probabilité permettent de considérer une inférence statistique. On a trouvé tout d'abord, que les modèles spatiaux de mortalité sontplus fragmentés et moins expliquables pour les femmes que pour les hommes; ensuite, sur la base d'une série d'analyses bi-variées, la mortalité prouve dépendre (1) négativement du revenu familial moyen et du pourcentage d'individus mariés et (2) positivement d'un taux de chomage et de pourcentages d'individus célibataires, veufs, divorcés et séparés; troisièmement, parmi toutes les variables socio-économiques dérivées du rencensementde 1981, le revenu familial moyen est la variable expliquant le mieux les variations de mortalité intra-urbaine et, dans ce même contexte, les autres variables explicatives ne sont pas suffisamment significatives sur le plan des statistiques; et (4) en termes des cadres théoriques de Mosk et lohansson et Omran, cette étude démontre que les modèles de mortalité ont progressé davantage pour les femmes que pour les hommes.