Institutionally Induced Pendulum? An Assessment of State-level Influences on Post-war Australian Federal Voting

The extent of State-level influences on federal voting behaviour in Australia has been debated for many years. In this paper, I extend and improve on previous research by using the most advanced techniques (multilevel modelling) available for analysing survey data in this context, and present results based on an extensive investigation of post-war Australian elections. The results show conclusively that the overall extent of measurable State-level effects on federal voting over the period is relatively very small, despite the institutional significance of the States. In an attempt to reconcile these two facts, I therefore propose an institutional explanation of the small extent of State-level effects. I argue that the representation entitlements of the States in the House of Representatives would tend to result in the overall extent of State-level effects being relatively small because they introduce a self-correcting 'pendulum' element into party competition. I investigate some hypotheses that follow from this argument, demonstrate that the evidence from the multilevel modelling is consistent with these hypotheses, and conclude that this institutional element is a significant part of the explanation of the apparent unimportance of State-level influences.     

Post-war changes in the influence of social structure on Australian voting: The ‘decline of social cleavages’ revisited

Franklin, Mackie and Valen's 1992 Franklin, M., Mackie, T. and Valen, H. 1992. Electoral Change: Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar] book on Electoral Change drew on evidence taken from a small number of surveys in each included country (including Australia) during the mid-1960s to 1990 to derive some general conclusions about the historical decline of cleavage politics. In this article, I make some methodological improvements and also considerably chronologically extend the analyses for Australia, to cover the whole of the post-war period. The results show that some of the previous conclusions are incorrect and that although there has been a decline in the strength of association between social structural variables and voting for the ALP over the post-war period, the decline has not been a smooth one and predominantly occurred in the earlier part of the period. I also discuss the results in the context of broader international debates about the impact of social changes on voting.     

Challenging New State Spatialities: The Open Marxism of Henri Lefebvre

Abstract: It is possible to identify a subterranean tradition within Marxism—one in which dialectical thought is harnessed not only to expose the necessarily exploitative and inherently crisis‐prone character of capitalism as an actual system of social organisation, but also to critique the very categories that constitute capitalism as a conceptual system. This paper argues that Henri Lefebvre's work can be included within this tradition of “open Marxism”. In demonstrating how Lefebvre's work on everyday life, the production of space and the state derives from his open approach, the paper flags a potential problem of antinomy in an emergent new state spatialities literature that draws upon Lefebvre to supplement its structuralist–regulationist (“closed”) Marxist foundations. A Lefebvre‐inspired challenge is therefore established: that is, to develop a critique of space which does not substitute an open theory of the space of political economy with a closed theory of the political economy of the regulation of space.     

Internal migration and elector turnover in Australia

This paper argues that internal migration should be given more attention in Australia as a factor to be taken into account in studying voting patterns. After briefly outlining some facts about the recent extent and nature of Australian internal migration, the paper describes and analyses some new information about the amount of elector turnover in the 14 Western Australian Commonwealth electoral divisions between the 1990 and 1993 elections. Even in divisions which had little change in overall enrolment levels, the analyses show such a high degree of turnover that, in almost all of the divisions, between a quarter and a third of the 1993 electors had not been enrolled in the same division at the 1990 election. The uses and limitations of this type of data are also discussed.     

Voting swings and seat changes: A stochastic model

The usual method for analysing the relationship between net seat changes and net voting swings has been Mackerras's pendulum, which is based on the assumption of uniform swing. This paper argues that the probabilistic concepts which underlie the relationship have not been clearly recognised in the past, and proposes a simple stochastic model for net swings. The pendulum‐uniform swing model is a special case of this model. A mathematical analysis is given of the implications of the model for the relationship between swing and seat changes. As well as showing how net seat changes can be predicted from net voting swing, the analysis demonstrates that quite large fluctuations in net seat changes can result from random variation alone.     

National Identity,Partisanship and Populist Protest as Factors in the 1999 Australian Republic Referendum

Using survey data from the Australian Constitutional Referendum Study 1999, the article begins by showing that the votes of direct electionists were as important as those of monarchists in the defeat of the republic referendum. Since these votes were crucial to the outcome, it then discusses several possible explanations of what differentiated those direct electionists who voted against the referendum proposal from those who voted in favour. Explanations considered include partisan influences, populist protest, and the role of national identity and ancestry. The article finds that all had a part to play in distinguishing the direct electionists who supported the referendum from those who did not, with the protest aspect being related to conceptions of national identity and capable of being interpreted as a reaction against multiculturalism. It also considers future prospects and argues that eventually some sort of direct election outcome is likely.     

Natural preservation mechanisms at play in a Bronze Age wooden shovel found in the copper mines of Alderley Edge

A wooden shovel, dating from the Early Bronze Age, has survived in a remarkable state of preservation in the copper mines of Alderley Edge, Cheshire UK. Other historic timbers recovered from the mines, whilst still intact, have fared less well. An X-ray investigation into the distribution of minerals through the shovel using portable X-ray Fluorescence (PXRF) along with the use of synchrotron-based X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy (XAS) measurements of the copper and arsenic chemical speciations has provided clues to the methods by which metals from the mining environment have entered the wood of the shovel and ensured its survival. The distribution and nature of the minerals so determined suggest that the copper and arsenic, along with a significant lead content, entered the shovel during its original use in working mineral-rich deposits, rather than through the burial environment. The insights gained are expected to be applicable to other wooden artefacts recovered from ancient copper mines in other places.     

Children and families: Relationships between family attitudes,household composition and voting in Australia

In the light of ongoing demographic trends (such as low fertility rates and growth of single-person households), some of the features of the 2004 Australian federal election outcomes and campaign raise the possibility that we might have seen the beginnings of a divide in voting behaviour based on family structure, particularly those aspects related to the presence of children. Relevant data from the 2004 Australian Election Study (AES) are quite limited, so I use data from both the 2004 AES and the 2003 Australian Survey of Social Attitudes to explore the relationships between federal voting and family structure, and attitudes towards children, parenting and families of different types. The results show effects on voting that apparently result from financial considerations related to the presence of children and others that are related to differences of values.