Those who have stuck with modelling since those heady days have largely been able to do so, I suspect, by restricting the nature of the questions they ask. (Harvey 1989, 212) One can imagine a world, perhaps, in which the growth of knowledge was interestingly philosophizable. But it doesn't seem to be our world. (McCloskey 1988, 245) 相似文献
Facility location models are examined as a framework for generating rain gauge networks designed to reduce errors in mean areal precipitation (MAP) estimation. Errors in estimating MAP may be divided into two types: (i) capture error, not observing a storm which occurs in a gauged area, and (ii) extrapolation error, using a rain gauge measurement to represent a heterogeneous area. In this paper, five rain gauge location models are developed to minimize these errors. The models include adaptations of the maximal covering location problem, the p-median model, and three models derived from multicriteria cluster analysis. The models are tested using precipitation data from an experimental watershed maintained by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in Arizona. Analysis of the results reveals, for the particular watershed, that (1) in sparse networks, location of rain gauges can play a larger role than number of rain gauges in reducing errors in MAP estimates; (2) models based on mean hydrologic data provide nearly as good networks as models based on spatially correlated data; and (3) models yielding the best networks for estimating precipitation for flood predictions are different from the models providing the best precipitation estimates for low flow forecasts. 相似文献
Rozefelds, A.C., Dettmann, M.E., Clifford, H.T. & Lewis, D., August 2015. Macrofossil evidence of early sporophyte stages of a new genus of water fern Tecaropteris (Ceratopteridoideae: Pteridaceae) from the Paleogene Redbank Plains Formation, southeast Queensland, Australia. Alcheringa 39,. ISSN 0311-5518.
Water fern foliage is described from the Paleogene Redbank Plains Formation at Dinmore in southeast Queensland. The material, which is based upon leaf impressions, records early sporophyte growth stages. The specimens occur at discrete levels in clay pits at Dinmore, and the different leaf stages present suggest that they represent colonies of young submerged plants, mats of floating leaves, or a mixed assemblage of both. The leaf material closely matches the range of variation evident in young sporophytes of Ceratopteris Brongn., but in the complete absence of Cenozoic fossils of the spore genus Magnastriatites Germeraad, Hopping & Muller emend. Dettmann & Clifford from mainland Australia, which are the fossil spores of this genus, it is referred to a new genus, Tecaropteris. The record of ceratopterid-like ferns adds significantly to our limited knowledge of Cenozoic freshwater plants from Australia. The geoheritage significance of sites, such as Dinmore, is discussed briefly.
This article explores the fascinating interactions and experiences of James Bond creator, Ian Fleming, with the real world of intelligence. It has long been known that Fleming worked in Naval Intelligence during the Second World War. However, accounts of his time there tend to portray him as a lowly and slightly eccentric administrator. Drawing on newly discovered archival materials, plus memoirs and histories, it is argued here that Fleming was a respected and influential figure in the great game of espionage for some three decades. During the war, he was a central cog in the machinery of naval intelligence, planning operations, working with partners in American intelligence and liaising with secret Whitehall departments, including the Government Code and Cypher School at Bletchley Park. Before and after the war, he was involved in a range of intelligence networks, often using journalistic cover to hide his clandestine connections. Throughout his life, his social circle was a ‘who’s who’ of spies and saboteurs, including CIA Director Allen Dulles. In short, he straddled the state-private divide. Taken together, these dealings with real intelligence paved the way for and gave veracity to his fiction, which continues to shape public perceptions of intelligence to this day. 相似文献
FILOMENO AGUILAR. Clash of Spirits—the History of Power and Sugar Planter Hegemony on a Visayan Island. Ateneo de Manila University Press and University of Hawaii Press, 1998.
CHINA
BENJAMIN VANG. Deng: a Political Biography. New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1997. 360 pp. Bibliography, index. US$59.95, hardcover; US$21.95, paper.
CHING KWAN LEE. Gender and the South China Miracle. Two Worlds of Factory Women. Berkeley, Los Angeles and London: University of California Press, 1998. xiii, 210 pp. Bibliography, index. £12.95, paper.
LINDA BENSON and INGVAR SVANBERG. China's Last Nomads: the History and Culture of China's Kazaks. New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1998. 270 pp. Index, photographs, maps, charts, bibliography. US$63.95, hardcover; US$ 24.95, paper.
JAPAN, KOREA
TESSA MORRIS‐SUZUKI. Re‐inventing Japan: time, Space, Nation. New York and London: M. E. Sharpe, 1998. US$21.95, paper.
DAVID MYERS and KOTAKU ISHIDO (eds). Japan at the Crossroads. Tokyo: Seibundo, 1998. xv, 253 pp. Bibliography. ¥3000, paper.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
LINDA CONNOR, PATSY ASCH and TIMOTHY ASCH.
Films: A Balinese Trance Séance (30 mins). Jero on Jero (16 mins). The Medium is the Masseuse (31 mins). Jero Tapakan (26 mins). Produced and distributed by the Ethnographic Film Unit, Department of Anthropology, RSPAS, ANU, Canberra. 16mm (VHS cassette). Colour. English subtitles. A$80.00.
CARL A. TROCKI (ed). Gangsters, Democracy, and the State in Southeast Asia. Ithaca: Cornell University Southeast Asia Program Publications, 1998. 94 pp. No price given, paper. 相似文献
