Elastic labor supply and agglomeration

This study analyzes the interplay between the agglomeration of economic activities and interregional differences in working hours, which are typically longer in large cities, as they are normally more developed than small cities. For this purpose, we develop a two‐region model with endogenous labor supply. Although we assume a symmetric distribution of immobile workers, the symmetric equilibrium breaks in the sense that firms may agglomerate when trade costs are intermediate and labor supply is elastic. We also show that the price index is always lower, while labor supply, per capita income, real wages, and welfare are always higher in the more agglomerated region.     

LOCAL POLITICS AND ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY: INFORMATION AGGREGATION AND POLARIZATION

We consider information aggregation in national and local elections when voters are mobile and might sort themselves into local districts. Using a standard model of private information for voters in elections in combination with a new economic geography model, agglomeration occurs for economic reasons, whereas voter stratification occurs due to political preferences. When trade is more costly, people tend to agglomerate for economic reasons, resulting in full information equivalence in the political sector. Under free trade, people sort themselves into districts, most of which are polarized, resulting in no full information equivalence in these districts.     

ESTIMATING INTERREGIONAL UTILITY DIFFERENTIALS*

ABSTRACT The major objective of this paper is to estimate regional utility levels based on interregional migration data. We first revealed three stylized facts concerning migration behavior by examining long‐term Japanese data on interregional migration. We then uncovered inconsistency between net migration and utility differential in the presence of distance‐related migration costs. Based on the stylized facts and the inconsistency problem, we formulated an operational model and estimated interregional utility differentials. We showed that the interregional utility differentials converged until the late 1970s. We also showed that the utility estimates are highly correlated with the per capita real income. We also applied the model to interregional migration data in the United States and Canada and confirmed the model's validity.     

Stability of Spatial Equilibrium*

Abstract. Asymptotic stability of equilibrium is often difficult to know when the number of variables exceeds four, since all eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix are not analytically solvable. However, we obtain stability conditions for a general class of migration dynamics without computing eigenvalues. We show that a spatial equilibrium is stable in the presence of strong congestion diseconomies, but unstable in the presence of strong agglomeration economies. We also show existence of a stable equilibrium in the case of negligible interregional externalities, which is applicable to club goods, local public goods, and new economic geography.     

On the number and size of cities

We study the effects of a decrease in inter-city transport costson the spatial distribution of population in a multi-regionaleconomy, when a rise in the regional population generates higherurban costs. Holding the number of cities constant, as transportcosts are reduced gradually from a very high level to a verylow level, there is a first phase in which large cities growwhile small cities shrink, a second phase in which both largeand small cities grow while medium size cities shrink, and athird phase in which large cities shrink while small citiesgrow. Furthermore, when the number of cities is allowed to varyas transport costs are reduced from large to small values, itfirst decreases and then increases.     

Time-series modeling of gross migration and dynamic equilibrium

Firstly, the high association between in- and out-migration is investigated in a time-series context and modeled according to three categories: 1) job transfer, 2) job search and marriage, and 3) return migration. Under certain coditions it is shown that aggregation of these migrations yields a bivariate time-series model having feedbacks in both directions. Secondly, the recent phenomenon of sharp changes in net migration seems to be discontinuous and, hence, catastrophic modeling [Casetti (1981) may be appropriate. However, this paper considers gross migration between cores (metropolitan areas) and peripheries (rest of the nation) for which a continuous function seems adequate. This is done by introducing a multivariate time-series model. This model is empirically supported, especially in Japan, divided into 32 regions, by t-tests and Durbin-Watson ratios, although it excludes economic variables such as employment growth and wage differentials. This may imply that the recent dispersal from core to peripheral regions could be explained primarily by feedback from return migrants. Finallym, provided future streams of gross migration follow the past trends given by simultaneous equation estimates, in-migration and out-migration would approach a stable state in most regions. Irrespective of random shocks in the future, in- and out-migration would tend to approach a stable equilibrium. According to the estimation of the stable states, the 45 core regions in the US would continue to lose population through net outflows while those in Japan would continue to gain. The present model may thus be valid only for short-term forecasts. By introducing feedback and lag structures, however, it does offer one explanation for the recent population turnaround.